Commodities Rolling 10-Year Annualized Returns Historical trends suggest that commodity bull markets have the potential to last for extended periods, often spanning multiple years. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
4-Week Flow Pace into Bitcoin Funds There has been a significant decline in the 4-week flow pace into Bitcoin funds. Image: J.P. Morgan
Interest Rates – U.S. Federal Funds Rate Expectations BofA expects a 3.5-3.75% terminal rate in this cutting cycle, up 50bp from their previous forecast. This suggests a need to tighten monetary policy to control inflation…
Annual Changes in Central Bank Gold Reserves The significant increase in gold reserves by China, Poland, and Singapore in 2023 reflects a broader trend of central banks expanding their holdings of bullion amid escalating geopolitical…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In March, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.52% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession…
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Margins Ex-Financials Forecasts indicate that S&P 500’s net margins will likely increase over the next few quarters, signaling a potentially positive outlook for profitability. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Day of Month Seasonality Returns Considering seasonality and the two-week decline, a bounce-back in the S&P 500 this week would not be surprising. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation – Russell 2000 Forward P/E The U.S. small-cap forward P/E is now above the historical average. This may suggest increased market optimism or expectations for higher future earnings growth in the small-cap segment. Image:…
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank’s forecast for the Fed funds rate is more hawkish than many mainstream projections, expecting a single 2024 rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, followed by…
Inflation – Core PCE and Forecasts Despite the recent uptick in U.S. inflation, the decline in core PCE inflation from the elevated levels observed in 2022 has substantial implications for monetary policy, consumer behavior, and…