Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in December As the holidays approach, buyers usually return and the year-end rally tends to pick up speed in the second half of December. Historically, U.S. stocks have climbed…
U.S. Dollar Positioning Bearish bets on the U.S. dollar are crowded, and past extremes in positioning have often been the prelude to a rebound. Image: TS Lombard
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning With positioning at the 78th percentile, appetite for mega-cap growth and tech stays strong, but not overstretched. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 The broad market is quietly rotating: the S&P 500 is just below its October highs, but small caps and the average stock are outperforming,…
S&P 500 Trend Channel Valuations may look stretched, but the S&P 500 has held a steady 22.7% annualized uptrend since October 2022 and now sits near the bottom of that trend channel. Image: Deutsche Bank…
S&P 500 Valuation Multiples With valuations lofty and expectations running high, U.S. stocks look exposed if earnings or the economy disappoint. Image: Real Investment Advice
Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events The Dow Jones closed at another record high. While the usual chorus warns of bubbles and busts, U.S. stocks keep tuning out the noise, proving once again…
S&P 500 and U.S. IPO Activity The IPO market is showing signs of life. A pickup in U.S. listings, paired with improving sentiment in global equities, points to a more bullish medium-term outlook for new…
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns On average, investors stomach annual drawdowns of roughly 14%, but the S&P 500 managed to end higher in 34 of the past 45 years. Volatility, after all,…
Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change Margin debt on the NYSE has surged past $1.1 trillion, up nearly 40% YoY, marking one of the fastest spikes on record. Such rapid increases in borrowing, outpacing…
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Cuts Within 2% of an All-Time High Bears are losing ground as history leans bullish. Since 1980, when the Fed has eased policy while the S&P 500 traded within 2%…