Semiconductors as a Share of the S&P 500 The market’s weak spot is concentration. Semiconductors have climbed to 18.8% of the S&P 500, a record and more than twice their dot-com era peak. One miss…

S&P 500 Performance Up YTD Between 5-10% at the Midpoint of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has been up 5% to 10% by midyear, it has finished the year higher 93.8% of…

Gold Drawdown from Its Trailing Previous Peak Gold has just suffered one of its steepest pullbacks in more than a decade. The drop looks less like the start of a lasting reversal and more like…

YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities U.S. equity inflows have been running hot this year, with leveraged bets on U.S. exceptionalism still firmly in place. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 The Mag-7 has weighed on U.S. indices since October 2025, with selling pressure accelerating in June as investors began to question returns…

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 July has been a friendly month for U.S. stocks, with average returns of 0.8% going back to 1964. If that seasonal pattern holds, bulls could have…

Gold Model Using a model that incorporates real yields, the dollar, the S&P 500, and copper, gold now appears to be trading near fair value again. That leaves investors with a neutral signal. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Margin Debt Margin debt is rising fast. Leverage can turbocharge gains in a rally, but it cuts just as hard when sentiment shifts. Investors would be wise to pay attention. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate U.S. breakeven inflation rates are not just easing. They have been falling sharply, pointing to markets pricing in weaker inflation ahead, a welcome sign for stability and growth. Image: Goldman Sachs…

Tech: Capex and Buyback & Dividends Tech capex has now overtaken buybacks and dividends. Are shareholders trading short-term pain for long-term gain? It only works if that spending delivers real returns. Image: Societe Generale Cross…

S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus sees S&P 500 earnings rising 22% year on year in 2Q 2026, driven largely by strong tech profits. Once again, tech is carrying the…