Geopolitical Risk Index Geopolitical risk has risen sharply and this often coincides with higher equity volatility and risk‑off behavior in markets. Markets hate uncertainty, and geopolitics never fail to deliver it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations U.S. households are not fully buying the Fed’s inflation fight. One‑year expectations sit at 3%, above the 2% target, and longer‑term expectations aren’t much different. For most families, everyday costs haven’t…
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Market breadth across the S&P 500 deteriorated sharply last week, a warning sign that strength at the index level may be masking…
S&P 500 Return Around Geopolitical Risk Events The latest moves in the S&P 500 recall how markets have historically absorbed geopolitical risks: brief pullbacks followed by rebounds, often back to pre-shock levels in roughly a…
Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Spikes in oil prices typically push up headline inflation, but the effect on inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, is limited and usually short-lived. Energy shocks often…
Change in Global Financial Conditions Following 8 Largest Geopolitical Risk Shocks in the Middle East Even though past Middle East conflicts haven’t consistently tightened financial conditions, the global FCI is up 31bp. Sustained at this…
Global Crude Oil Export Global crude exports have tumbled as conflict flares across the Middle East, rattling supply routes. Analysts see several weeks of disruption but some relief ahead if tensions cool. Image: J.P. Morgan…
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the…
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 The recent choppy trade fits the script of the four-year presidential cycle’s midterm-year rhythm. From March to April, the S&P 500 often rallies toward its yearly peak before sentiment…
Global Value vs. Growth This year, investors have shifted from expensive tech into value plays. But lower rates could revive growth stocks as cheaper money boosts the appeal of future profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Global Equity Forward Earnings Global earnings growth exceeding 15% is rare outside of post-recession recoveries or major economic booms. Right now, the backdrop for businesses is unusually strong. Image: Deutsche Bank Research