S&P 500 and Three Weeks of +3% Gains in a Row The S&P 500 notched a third straight week of gains above 3%. Moves like this usually show up in snapback rallies after panic selling,…

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs sees it closer to 30%. Is…

Weekly Change in Equity Positioning Investors piled into equities, driving one of the biggest weekly jumps in positioning on record. Such bursts often reflect a market gripped by FOMO. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Change in 12-Month Forward EPS for S&P Tech Sector Firms Nearly all of the year-to-date increase in S&P tech forward earnings traces back to SanDisk and Micron. Excluding those names, revisions look subdued and the…

MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been moving opposite to rate volatility. Stocks remain sensitive to rate swings, but as clarity returns, investors recalibrate and the market calms. It’s all about uncertainty,…

S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change vs. Annual Change in GAAP Earnings The S&P 500 tends to track corporate earnings, so strategies built on profit growth make sense for investors playing the long game. In…

Nasdaq-100 Win Streaks of 12 Days or More and Future Returns A 12-day winning streak has pushed the Nasdaq-100 into rare territory. History is on the bulls’ side with similar streaks leading to positive returns…

Excess CAPE Yield and Subsequent 10-Year Real Return The excess CAPE yield, which measures the gap between bond yields and the inverse of the P/E ratio, indicates that U.S. stocks look pricey, making now a…

U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio U.S. tech stocks still command a premium over the broader market, fueled by strong growth prospects, though that gap looks unlikely to close unless a recession shakes…

Rolling S&P 500 Change Over 11 Sessions It’s a rare burst of momentum: the S&P 500 has gained more than 10% in just 11 sessions, something that’s happened only 15 times this century. Moves like…

S&P 500 Index – Best and Worst Days For the S&P 500, the best and worst days often land right next to each other. Miss the best sessions and you leave returns on the table,…