3-Month Peak to Trough Decline in Hedge Fund Gross Leverage Hedge funds cut exposure aggressively in July, triggering one of the sharpest de-grossing episodes of the past decade and a steep selloff in their most…

Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock stands at 3.2%, elevated but consistent with hedging flows rather than a bearish conviction trade, and still…

S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. Subsequent 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is now sitting at a Shiller CAPE level that has only shown up during the market’s priciest episodes. History points to…

Valuations – S&P 500 Sector Forward P/E Energy remains the market’s valuation laggard, while Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Staples are already priced for a lot of optimism. Image: The Daily Shot

Large Cap Healthcare Positioning Large-cap healthcare positioning sits at the 55th percentile, just above neutral and far from crowded, leaving room for buyers to add. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

G7 Budget Deficits, Share of GDP The U.S. is running by far the largest budget deficit among G7 economies when measured relative to GDP, and projections show little improvement over the next few years. Image:…

S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs This year, U.S. ISM PMIs have picked up sharply, finally catching the earlier surge in earnings-revisions momentum. The cyclical upturn is now underway. Image: Topdown Charts

U.S. 10s30s and 20Y to 30Y Buybacks Buybacks are starting to look like fiscal QE, with the Treasury flooding the system with short‑term debt to fund the deficit. The problem is that rising yields are…

S&P 500 – Real Growth of $1 in U.S. Stocks Since 1871, U.S. stocks have spent about three out of every four months below a previous peak. The trend line goes up, but the typical…

S&P 500 Abnormal Returns The market keeps rewarding the stubborn. For more than 25 years, U.S. equities have brushed off one wave of bad news after another. Bull markets don’t wait for the headlines to…

Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Tech demand is showing the first faint signs of a pause. It’s far too early to call a change in trend, but investors are cautiously starting to rotate into cyclicals and…