Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P…
U.S. Risk Sentiment Indicator U.S. equities have surged, but risk sentiment stays neutral, leaving room for the rally to run as many investors stay on the sidelines. Image: TS Lombard
GS Risk Appetite Indicator and U.S. Equity Momemtum 1-Year Z-Score When risk appetite and momentum run too hot, like today, future equity returns typically fade under the weight of easy optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Cumulative YTD Change in Consensus 2027 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure and energy are carrying the bulk of S&P 500 EPS revisions, while the rest of the market is barely moving. Strip those sectors out and…
2026 S&P 500 EPS Revisions Analysts typically cut S&P 500 EPS forecasts as the fiscal year unfolds. This year is different. Estimates are moving higher, lifted by AI enthusiasm and reinforced by confident guidance. The…
S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years Under President Trump, the S&P 500 has often seen early-year weakness, with lows clustering in late March. If the pattern repeats, 2026 could keep climbing, despite a new Fed…
Retail Share of Trading Volumes in Select U.S. Equity Index ETF Since 2021 Retail traders are piling into leveraged U.S. equity index ETFs, hardly a surprise given their long-standing appetite for leverage. The trade looks…
Cumulative Change in Consensus 2026 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure stocks have seen 2026 earnings estimates jump 55% since December 2024, versus just 7% for the broader S&P 500. Strip them out and earnings fall 1%.…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums squeezed in the U.S. and Japan, stocks are offering little extra return over bonds, making the trade harder to justify and raising the odds of…
Ownership of the U.S. Equity Market U.S. households hold 40% of the U.S. equity market. That sounds like broad ownership. In reality, nearly 90% of that stake is held by the wealthiest 10%. Image: Goldman…
Nasdaq 100 Index Contribution in Years of +10-25% When the Nasdaq‑100 rises +10-25% in a year, the gains are usually driven by just three stocks. That is the nature of cap‑weighted indices. Narrow breadth isn’t…