Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums In the U.S. and Japan, the equity risk premium has shrunk so much that stocks barely pay investors for taking extra risk over bonds. That makes the case for…

Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally has largely been an infrastructure trade, rewarding chipmakers, data-center builders and cloud platforms, while leaving software and productivity stocks behind. Image: Goldman Sachs…

Flows into Gold Funds Demand for gold funds is picking up again as retail investors return to ETFs, central banks keep adding to their reserves and the macro backdrop continues to favor gold. Image: Goldman…

Global Cross Asset Risk Sentiment Global investors are firmly risk-on, but sentiment is constructive rather than euphoric, keeping the door open to further gains. Image: TS Lombard

Top 7 Hyperscaler Capex Forecast This year, the top seven U.S. hyperscalers are on track to pour almost $900 billion into capex, with 2027 set to drive the total toward $1.5 trillion. What began as…

U.S. Corporate Profits and S&P 500 Relative Total Return to U.S. Treasuries Earnings are still riding on nominal growth, and with valuations creeping higher, strategists see enough fuel to stay tactically bullish on U.S. equities…

Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ The AI trade has cooled, but the broader trend remains intact. Price action still looks typical of a momentum rally, setting up the possibility of another…

S&P 500 Annual Total Return by Change in Reported EPS Earnings drive corrections by severity, not direction. The deeper the earnings decline, the deeper the market decline. Every 20% market drop has arrived alongside a…

U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. equities look expensive by almost any historical measure, with most valuation metrics more than two standard deviations above their long-term averages. But if momentum holds, the rally…

Estimated Hyperscaler Debt Issuance Credit markets are joining the AI buildout. What began as an equity story is now a credit one. Goldman Sachs strategists expect debt to fund 35% of hyperscalers’ capex by 2027.…

12-Month Forward ROE Ranges for Different MSCI Regions Higher ROE usually translates into stronger profits and a valuation premium, but U.S. equity multiples are driven just as much by growth, risk, liquidity, and investor sentiment.…