S&P 500 Drawdowns from 52-Week High and the First Two Years of a New Fed Chair’s Term Fed leadership changes don’t usually shake markets on their own. It’s the macro picture and prior positioning that…
S&P 500 12-Month Forward Returns After 10-Day Surges Of 10%+ History leans bullish: since 1950, a 10% surge in the S&P 500 over 10 days, like in April, has been followed by gains in 17…
S&P 500 – Investing at All-Time Highs vs. All Other Days Investing at all-time highs tends to spook investors, but the data suggests otherwise: S&P 500 forward returns have typically looked much like those from…
S&P 500 and Prediction Market Odds of the End to the Iran Conflict U.S. stocks advanced as the geopolitical mood brightened. The S&P 500 has followed every twist in expectations around the Iran conflict. Right…
U.S. 10 Year Yield and S&P 500 For equities, focus less on where rates are and more on how fast they’re moving. U.S. stocks have rarely shown a strong link to the absolute level of…
S&P 500 and Three Weeks of +3% Gains in a Row The S&P 500 notched a third straight week of gains above 3%. Moves like this usually show up in snapback rallies after panic selling,…
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs sees it closer to 30%. Is…
Weekly Change in Equity Positioning Investors piled into equities, driving one of the biggest weekly jumps in positioning on record. Such bursts often reflect a market gripped by FOMO. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Change in 12-Month Forward EPS for S&P Tech Sector Firms Nearly all of the year-to-date increase in S&P tech forward earnings traces back to SanDisk and Micron. Excluding those names, revisions look subdued and the…
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been moving opposite to rate volatility. Stocks remain sensitive to rate swings, but as clarity returns, investors recalibrate and the market calms. It’s all about uncertainty,…
S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change vs. Annual Change in GAAP Earnings The S&P 500 tends to track corporate earnings, so strategies built on profit growth make sense for investors playing the long game. In…