U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.05% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Cyclical Minus Defensive Sectors Positioning At the 52nd percentile, sector positioning shows a market in balance, with no meaningful shift toward either cyclicals or defensives, pointing to a lack of strong conviction. Image: Deutsche Bank…

S&P 500 Performance After Seven Week Wins Streaks Up >10% A seven-week winning streak and a double-digit gain tend to set the tone. Since 1950, US stocks have delivered an average 12-month return of 15.7%…

CTAs Exposure to Equities Since the start of the year, CTAs have cut equity exposure to the 49th percentile, but their positioning remains solidly long, pointing to a cautious but constructive stance. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ Goldman’s Momentum Factor has jumped over 25% in the past three months. Moves like this are rare, only 11 since 1980. The historical playbook points to…

Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P…

U.S. Risk Sentiment Indicator U.S. equities have surged, but risk sentiment stays neutral, leaving room for the rally to run as many investors stay on the sidelines. Image: TS Lombard

GS Risk Appetite Indicator and U.S. Equity Momemtum 1-Year Z-Score When risk appetite and momentum run too hot, like today, future equity returns typically fade under the weight of easy optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

Cumulative YTD Change in Consensus 2027 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure and energy are carrying the bulk of S&P 500 EPS revisions, while the rest of the market is barely moving. Strip those sectors out and…

2026 S&P 500 EPS Revisions Analysts typically cut S&P 500 EPS forecasts as the fiscal year unfolds. This year is different. Estimates are moving higher, lifted by AI enthusiasm and reinforced by confident guidance. The…

S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years Under President Trump, the S&P 500 has often seen early-year weakness, with lows clustering in late March. If the pattern repeats, 2026 could keep climbing, despite a new Fed…