S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth The rally in stocks was not just about price action; it was powered by the strongest S&P 500 earnings growth in at least four years. When earnings drive the move,…

Sector ETF Flows Money is piling into tech. Since the S&P 500’s March 30 low, roughly $25 billion has flowed into tech sector ETFs, while non-tech sector ETFs have seen about $4 billion in combined…

Number of U.S. IPOs 40 U.S. companies have gone public so far this year, while Goldman Sachs expects roughly 100 IPOs to raise about $160 billion in 2026. Geopolitical uncertainty and recent equity market volatility…

S&P 500 Performance – % Difference vs. the 200-DMA The S&P 500 is trading about 11% above its 200-day moving average, not far from past peaks. The further it stretches, the more vulnerable it becomes…

S&P 500 Index vs. 40-Week Moving Average The 40-week moving average offers a straightforward way to manage S&P 500 exposure. Add risk when the index trades above it. Trim risk when it falls below. Process…

S&P 500 Performance After Nine Week Wins Streaks A 9-week win streak tends to have legs. In 9 out of 10 cases, the S&P 500 has moved higher in the next month, suggesting June could…

Two-Month Change in the S&P 500 Since WWII Since WWII, two-month rallies of this magnitude in the S&P 500 have been rare, typically appearing either in the rebound from recessions such as the GFC and…

MOVE Index vs. U.S. 10-Year Note Unlike in 2022, U.S. 10-year yields are higher year to date, but rate volatility has stayed contained. Implied and realized volatility remain compressed even as inflation risks and Fed…

Median Single Stock Short Interest Within S&P 500 Index Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock is elevated, raising the odds of short squeezes. The rise reflects hedging activity rather than a wave of…

U.S. Equity Issuance U.S. equity issuance has been strengthening since 2023, and may accelerate further in coming months if the anticipated wave of mega-IPOs materializes. The question is whether the market has the appetite to…

Probability of U.S. Recession The one-year U.S. recession probability implied by the S&P 500 and BBB spread has eased, pointing to a more constructive market tone as fears of near-term economic stress fade. Image: J.P.…