Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading 56% above its estimated medium‑term fair value. Apart from the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this overbought, leaving room for downside if conditions normalize. Image:…

S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events U.S. stocks have a habit of looking past turbulence in oil. After past geopolitical flare-ups, the S&P 500 has usually pushed higher, and this episode could follow the same…

Estimated Oil Exports Through Strait Hormuz, Based on Vessel Count Goldman Sachs has toughened its base case for the Strait of Hormuz, now expecting 21 days of minimal crude flows followed by a month‑long recovery…

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar (Measured by Inflation): Invested vs. Uninvested Gold hasn’t lost its glow, but U.S. stocks have shone brighter since 1928. Look far enough ahead, and the edge moves to assets…

Average Year for the S&P 500 the Past 20 Years Over the past two decades, March 12 has often marked the bottom for U.S. stocks, with rebounds taking shape soon after. History doesn’t always repeat itself,…

S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity (Leading Indicator) G10 excess liquidity, the gap between real money growth and economic growth, is climbing again as it returns to post‑pandemic highs and gives U.S.…

S&P 500 Sentiment and Valuations Cracks are emerging as S&P 500 sentiment and valuation indicators are slipping from stretched territory, a move investors should keep an eye on. Markets rarely stay overheated for long. Image:…

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index vs. S&P 500 Index – Two-Year Performance Spread Investors’ rush from tech to value has driven one of the deepest performance gaps between the market-cap and equal-weighted indexes since the…

S&P 500 vs. U.S. Corp Investment Grade All Sectors OAS A widening OAS for investment grade debt is typically a bearish signal for U.S. equities. That’s not what stock bulls want to see. Image: TS…

U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation cooled in February as core CPI rose 0.22%, right on expectations. The annual rate slowed to 2.5%, marking steady disinflation progress but still short of the Fed’s 2% target.…

Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes Investors’ risk appetite for equities has cooled recently but stays in positive territory amid ongoing market swings. Sentiment has definitely softened, but bulls haven’t left the room. Image:…