Contribution to Consensus S&P 500 EPS Growth Strong 2026 earnings growth has helped bring down the S&P 500’s forward P/E multiple. Consensus expects growth to cool in 2027 and 2028, but slower earnings growth alone…
Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown Drawdown risk for the S&P 500 has increased recently, amid rising yields, looming rate hikes, and weak market breadth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – Hyperscaler Forward P/E Valuations for the hyperscalers have come down meaningfully from their peak and now sit at their lowest level in 10 years. They’re still not a bargain, but the risk‑reward looks…
U.S. Composite PMI U.S. business activity surged in September to its fastest pace since July 2021. But, the expansion also intensified inflation risks. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Performance When Up YTD Between 10-20% at the End of September When the S&P 500 is up 10% to 20% YTD by late September, Q4 tends to be bullish, with an 86% success…
Valuation – S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 P/E Prices have lagged the earnings boom, pulling near-term valuations below their trend-earnings multiples. The US market, for now, shows no…
S&P 500 Presidential Cycle Year three of the presidential cycle is Wall Street’s historically strongest period. With that phase just around the corner, the S&P 500 looks positioned for a solid 2027, enough to keep…
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Current market sentiment indicators are stuck in neutral, with bullish conviction matching bearish caution. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core CPI Forecast Goldman Sachs expects hotter U.S. core CPI than markets in September and October, but cooler readings in November and December, meaning markets underprice near-term inflation risk while overpricing its persistence later.…
Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally has mostly been an infrastructure trade, lifting chipmakers, data-center builders and cloud platforms while software and productivity names sit on the sidelines. Image:…
Global Share Buyback vs. Tech Sector Share in U.S. Buybacks Tech’s share of U.S. buybacks has climbed over the past decade, but the trend may begin to reverse, as AI spending diverts cash away from…