10-Year Government Bond Yield Sovereign bonds are selling off worldwide, not just in one market, as investors are concerned about higher energy prices, stickier inflation, tighter policy and a wave of government borrowing. Image: Alpine…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Performance Under President Trump September seasonality is flashing green. Under President Trump, U.S. stocks have closed higher in September in four out of five years, giving bulls reason to smile. Image:…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Call it the September drag. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has lost an average 0.6% in the month and finished higher in just 47% of Septembers.…
Crypto Fund Flows Last week, cryptocurrency funds saw their biggest weekly inflows since May, driven largely by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutional money is back, and so is the risk appetite. Image: Deutsche…
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, remains deep in euphoria territory. When the crowd is this bullish, the risk…
VIX Seasonality Summer calm rarely lasts. U.S. stock volatility usually kicks in about now. Does this time break the pattern? Image: Topdown Charts
Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has run well ahead of its long‑term median over the past years, but that kind of strength will be tough to repeat from today’s…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 September has earned its reputation as the S&P 500’s worst month, the only one with a negative average return since 1950. Then comes the final quarter,…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 September is typically a weak month for U.S. equities, and midterm years tend to make it worse. Once Election Day passes, uncertainty lifts and markets frequently improve. Image:…
S&P 500 Performance After a Positive August and YTD Between 10% and 17.5% History says this setup is bullish. Since 1945, when August closed in the green with the market up between 10% and 17.5%…
U.S. Equity Market Capitalization Since ChatGPT launched, multiple expansion has contributed 25% of the surge in U.S. market cap, crushing the equity risk premium and leaving little room for error if AI demand or earnings…