S&P 500 Company Guidance vs. Consensus Growth Expectations Into Earnings Seasons Consensus S&P 500 earnings growth heading into Q2 stands at 26.2%, a record for a pre-reporting period outside recession recoveries, driven in large part…
Revision to Consensus Hyperscaler Year/Year Capex Growth 2027 capex is still a moving target for hyperscalers. They look more likely to overshoot than undershoot on AI spending, which could keep AI-driven inflation stickier for longer.…
S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000 – YTD Change in Price, Earnings, and Valuation The S&P 500’s year-to-date total return has been driven entirely by earnings growth, while the Russell 2000’s advance has come roughly half…
S&P 500 Consensus Earnings Growth Expectations Analysts have rarely been this bullish on S&P 500 earnings heading into Q2 2026, a level typically seen only after recessions or at the start of a new cycle.…
Gross Proceeds from U.S. IPOs At midyear, 2026 has already matched 2021’s full-year record, with roughly $120 billion raised in U.S. IPOs. The window is wide open, but keeping that momentum through year-end will not…
Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI The rebound in global growth has been the central macro story of 2026. But the tone is shifting, as firmer inflation brings rate hikes back into the…
Semiconductors as a Share of the S&P 500 The market’s weak spot is concentration. Semiconductors have climbed to 18.8% of the S&P 500, a record and more than twice their dot-com era peak. One miss…
S&P 500 Performance Up YTD Between 5-10% at the Midpoint of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has been up 5% to 10% by midyear, it has finished the year higher 93.8% of…
Gold Drawdown from Its Trailing Previous Peak Gold has just suffered one of its steepest pullbacks in more than a decade. The drop looks less like the start of a lasting reversal and more like…
YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities U.S. equity inflows have been running hot this year, with leveraged bets on U.S. exceptionalism still firmly in place. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 The Mag-7 has weighed on U.S. indices since October 2025, with selling pressure accelerating in June as investors began to question returns…