Financials Group Positioning Financial positioning is still low, currently at the 34th percentile, which suggests room for further growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Performance – S&P 500 Index vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US 2025 is notable as a rare year when international stock markets are set to outperform the S&P 500, ending a long period of U.S. equity market…

S&P 500 Valuation Multiples While earnings estimates are optimistic and valuations high, this combination raises the risk that any earnings or economic misses could lead to considerable market volatility given how much optimism is already…

U.S. Recession Probability Both the S&P 500 equity market and the corporate bond market reflect investor expectations that a U.S. recession is unlikely or at least of low probability in the coming months. Image: J.P.…

Copper to Gold Ratio vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing A falling copper/gold ratio points to slower U.S. economic growth, reflecting investor caution toward the near-term economic environment. Image: Bloomberg

Average 1-Day Price Reaction to Reported Sales and EPS This season, U.S. stocks are reacting with amplified negative price movements to Q2 earnings misses compared to typical patterns, due to elevated market expectations, valuation concerns,…

Global Risk Sentiment Indicators Sentiment indicators suggest a “Goldilocks” scenario for risk appetite—investors are moderately optimistic, cautiously taking on risk without exuberance. Image: TS Lombard

Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in December 2025, followed by two further cuts of the same magnitude in Q1 2026, reducing…

Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Rising analysts’ sentiment on S&P 500 earnings reflects strong corporate results, positive surprises, and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, all pointing to potential near-term…

Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts The market currently prices in a greater likelihood of Fed rate cuts than suggested by the Summary of Economic Projections, especially under Powell’s successor as Fed Chair, with a…

Performance – S&P 500 vs. Stoxx Europe 600 The April 2025 correction caused short-term volatility and uncertainty but created a buying opportunity in U.S. growth and tech stocks, resetting market sentiment and driving a strong…