U.S.-Listed ETFs: Annual Flows Investors are piling into US-listed ETFs at a record pace. Inflows have reached nearly $1.3 trillion by the end of July, putting the year on track to break the $2 trillion…

S&P 500 Annual Total Return, Conditioned on Reported EPS Direction Earnings up? The S&P 500 only rallied 79% of those years. Earnings down? It still climbed 66% of the time. That’s because markets trade on…

S&P 500 Returns After >10% Months When the S&P 500 explodes higher by more than 10% in a single month, as it did in April, bulls get excited for a reason. Since 1950, the market…

EPS Revisions Since the start of the year, EPS revisions have trended higher across the S&P 500, STOXX 600 and Topix, with MSCI EM leading the way as confidence in 2026 earnings grows. Image: Goldman…

Relative Performance of Hyperscalers to S&P 500 Hyperscalers have been trapped in a two-year range versus the S&P 500. Now the question is whether they can break out while AI capex returns remain in doubt.…

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite among U.S. equity fund managers has surged to its highest level this year, buoyed by easing Middle East tensions and continued resilience in…

U.S. IG Credit Spread IG credit spreads in the U.S. have widened lately, particularly across tech, as the market demands a higher premium for AI-driven capex, heavy debt supply, rising leverage, and uncertain returns. Image:…

Large Cap MCG & Tech Positioning vs. Earnings Growth Positioning in large-cap MCG and Tech has surged, leaving the sector overweight and much closer to where it should be given today’s earnings growth. Image: Deutsche…

Weekly Net Flow to U.S. Bitcoin ETFs U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since April, attracting $850 million after a hack that refocused attention on the risks of holding digital assets. Image: Bloomberg

Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Capex estimates keep surprising to the upside as earnings season rolls on. Hyperscaler spending is now on track to hit over $1 trillion in 2027. That looks less like a cycle…

Performance – S&P 500 MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 After bouncing off the bottom of its long-term trend channel, the MCG and Tech relative performance ratio has rallied back…