U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits rose to 1.443 million, above expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions.…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has pushed back into stretched territory as investors pile into higher-risk bets. Upside still exists, but crowded positioning raises the odds of a…
Returns – Magnificent Seven vs. European Banks Since the start of 2022, European banks have outpaced U.S. mega-cap tech stocks. In a market obsessed with AI and the Magnificent Seven, it’s a rare twist. Image:…
GS Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions excluding equities have tightened slightly, but the overall stance remains easy and supportive of growth rather than restrictive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums In the U.S. and Japan, the equity risk premium has been squeezed so hard that stocks barely compensate investors for taking on extra risk versus bonds. That makes equities…
Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally has largely been an infrastructure trade, rewarding chipmakers, data-center builders and cloud platforms, while leaving software and productivity stocks behind. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Flows into Gold Funds Demand for gold funds is picking up again as retail investors return to ETFs, central banks keep adding to their reserves and the macro backdrop continues to favor gold. Image: Goldman…
Global Cross Asset Risk Sentiment Global investors are firmly risk-on, but sentiment is constructive rather than euphoric, keeping the door open to further gains. Image: TS Lombard
Top 7 Hyperscaler Capex Forecast This year, the top seven U.S. hyperscalers are on track to pour almost $900 billion into capex, with 2027 set to drive the total toward $1.5 trillion. What began as…
U.S. Corporate Profits and S&P 500 Relative Total Return to U.S. Treasuries Earnings are still riding on nominal growth, and with valuations creeping higher, strategists see enough fuel to stay tactically bullish on U.S. equities…
Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ The AI trade has cooled, but the broader trend remains intact. Price action still looks typical of a momentum rally, setting up the possibility of another…