Cumulative Flows Equity inflows have been exceptionally strong this year. Bond demand has held up just as well, even as yields have climbed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Number of Rate Hikes per Fed Tightening Cycle, 1994 to 2023 Since 1994, the Fed has gone through six tightening cycles. Five lasted for years and involved at least six rate hikes. But with real…

Global Equities Performance Since the start of 2025, U.S. stocks have fallen behind other major markets, ending a long run of outperformance. A weaker dollar is giving international investors another reason to look beyond Wall…

Fed Funds Rate Path Implied by the Median Dots The Fed is signaling higher rates for longer, with a two-hike baseline for 2026, a 2029 median fed-funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75%, and a neutral…

Dividends as % of Capital Expenditures The AI and infrastructure boom has pushed capex higher, but dividends have grown faster. The dividends-to-capex ratio has risen from 20% in the late 1990s to 50% today. U.S.…

S&P 500 Reported Earnings, Inflation-Adjusted to 2026 Dollars S&P 500 earnings just broke a 90‑year trend channel. Can profits stay this hot? The risk is a mean reversion that leaves current multiples looking far too…

S&P 500 Performance on Day of First Hike The last four first-hike days have been positive, with several big single-day gains, as the widely anticipated move clears the Fed doubts on timing. So, is this…

Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders are betting on a Fed rate hike today, with markets pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps move. But when oil…

S&P 500 Performance on the Day of the FOMC Meeting U.S. stocks have struggled on FOMC days this year. Can this week break the pattern? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Bond Positioning Bond positioning has sunk to the 5th percentile. If history rhymes, yields are near a short-term peak. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Valuation – S&P 500 Fwd 12-Month P/E Multiple vs. EPS Yield Gap vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury So far in 2026, U.S. equities have digested higher rates mostly through multiple compression, leaving the valuation gap…