Change in S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Consensus Unlike the usual pattern of downward revisions during the season, S&P 500 earnings estimates turned out to be too conservative. Third-quarter numbers are now moving higher, a positive…
Equities Allocation by G10 and U.S. Investors Across the G10, equity exposure in household, pension, and insurance portfolios has moved up significantly, nearing record highs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Magnificent Seven 12-Month Forward P/E Valuations for the Magnificent Seven have come down meaningfully from their peak and now sit near the lower end of the past seven years. They’re still not a bargain, but…
U.S. Equity Risk Indicator The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is at a level that has historically pointed to weakness over the short to intermediate term. But markets can stay stretched far longer than logic suggests,…
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS SA vs. S&P 500 Despite a strong second quarter of earnings, U.S. stocks have mostly gone nowhere. If the Fed turns more hawkish or rates stay elevated for longer, valuation multiples…
S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index vs. S&P 500 Equally-Weighted Index Investors looking to trim exposure to AI-fueled volatility may want to consider the equal-weight S&P 500. It beat the cap-weighted index during the dot-com bust and…
Equities, Cash and Real Estate as % of U.S. Household Net Financial Wealth Stocks have overtaken real estate as the bigger store of household wealth in the U.S., and that has become a meaningful tailwind…
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When U.S. Treasury yields climb fast, the most expensive high-growth stocks often take the biggest hit. A sudden 50 basis point rise in…
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while consensus puts the odds closer to 20%, above…
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 Investors are still rotating out of mega-cap tech. Since late October 2025, the Magnificent Seven have underperformed sharply, while the broader market has proved…
Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading more than 50% above its estimate of medium-term fair value. Outside the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this stretched, leaving plenty of room for a…