S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 June to August historically shines during election years, as it represents the strongest 3-month period in the fourth year of the presidential cycle, up 75%…
S&P 500 Earnings Estimate Revision Ratio The S&P 500 earnings estimate revision ratio has shown significant improvement, reflecting positive trends in earnings and expectations. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Fed Funds Rate Expectations Despite the initial anticipation of multiple rate cuts in 2024 as suggested by the Fed’s “dot plot,” the current market sentiment indicates a more reserved outlook, with fewer rate cuts in…
Measures of U.S. Underlying Inflation BofA expects a first rate cut in December 2024 due to the stickiness of U.S. underlying inflation. Image: BofA Global Research
Are You More Likely to Increase or Decrease Bond Portfolio Duration Over the Coming Days/Weeks? JPM reports that only 29% of their clients are considering reducing the duration of their bond portfolios, indicating a strong…
S&P 500 LTM EPS Deutsche Bank is confident in its revised 2024 S&P 500 EPS base case forecast, which now stands at $258, up from $250. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Personal Saving Rate and U.S. Household The U.S. personal saving rate remains well below its long-term average, reflecting a trend of decreased savings and raising concerns about individuals’ financial security. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets The sell-in-May effect may be more relevant in bear markets. In bull markets, it may be seen as a missed opportunity for potential gains, given the…
Fed Rates Cut Since the Fed’s last hike in July 2023, their ongoing 10-month pause is exceeding the average duration. Extended periods of “higher for longer” policies often lead to unfavorable outcomes. Image: Morgan Stanley…
Cumulative Bond Flows Government bonds and investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds have experienced substantial inflows over the last 12 months. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Fund Flows Record inflows into mortgage-backed securities over the past week highlight the growing interest in this asset class among investors. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy