Cash to Total Assets S&P 500 and S&P 500 Ex-Financials The corporate cash cushion is thinning. S&P 500 firms have slashed their reserves from pandemic peaks, redirecting capital toward AI infrastructure, growth projects, and buybacks…
Share of S&P 500 Annual Return Contributed by the 10 Largest Stocks In 2025, just 10 stocks generated more than half of the S&P 500’s gains, a reminder that the market’s engine is running on…
S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has rarely delivered average returns in any given year. Will 2026 keep the winning streak alive with another year of…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 18%, slightly higher than…
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM Equity flows usually pick up in the new year amid the “January effect,” when investors return with renewed confidence and…
U.S. Stock Market Concentration The U.S. stock market is as concentrated as it has been in decades, but history is full of similar moments, from the railroad boom of 1900 to the dominance of mega-caps…
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Chinese Stocks (iShares China Large-Cap ETF) Since early 2024, Chinese stocks have shown significant outperformance relative to US stocks, amid policy support, tech advancements, and attractive valuations. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average Global Policy Rate Global central banks moved decisively into rate‑cutting mode through 2025, with analysts expecting further, though more measured, easing in 2026, particularly in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After Down >15% YTD and Comes Back to Up Double Digits Momentum is with the bulls. Each time the S&P 500 has sunk more than 15% and then closed the year with…
Price of Gold Forecast Analyst forecasts for gold at the end of 2026 cluster near record highs, with most expecting bullion to gain about 7%. A slower climb than last year’s rally and with forecasts…
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and SLOOS With financial conditions easing and banks pulling back on loan tightening, the U.S. economy looks poised for stronger investment, hiring, and growth. But those tailwinds could reignite inflation if demand…