Impact of Tariff Policies on the Effective Tariff Rate The Supreme Court’s ruling on the IEEPA tariffs barely moves the needle: the change only trims the effective tariff increase since early 2025, from just over…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly fell in January to 389K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall…
Non-Financial Corporate Profits vs. 5-Year Average U.S. corporate profits have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, far outpacing the real economy. Past cycles warn that such imbalances eventually correct when market sentiment shifts. Image: Real Investment…
S&P 500 Yearly Returns The lesson from the “10 best days” rule is blunt: market timing rarely shows mercy. Miss those standout days in the S&P 500 each year and, instead of gains, your portfolio…
Valuations – MSCI Index Market Capitalization Relative to M2 U.S. market capitalization has rocketed since late 2022, pushing valuations to levels that M2 growth can’t justify on its own. There’s more at play now than…
Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly Win Streaks If February ends in the green, the Dow would notch 10 straight monthly gains, a streak seen only a handful of times since 1900. That strength says plenty…
Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has delivered returns far above its historical norm over the past three years, but such strength will be hard to repeat given where valuations…
Global Earnings Growth Global earnings growth has climbed about 15% year-on-year in Q4 2025, the strongest pace in years, powered by robust gains in U.S. tech and a resurgence across emerging markets. Image: Deutsche Bank…
DM Manufacturing PMI vs. Global Central Bank Decision Index This year’s key macro theme is a global growth rebound, fueled by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have set the stage for a fresh…
S&P 500 at the Start of a Presidential Term The S&P 500 experienced its worst start to a U.S. presidential term in decades after the president’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. Hopes tied to tax…
S&P 500 Based on the Chinese Zodiac Signs The Year of the Horse has begun. Playful as zodiac signs may be on market trends, the Year of the Horse usually trots rather than gallops, with…