U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.05% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Cyclical Minus Defensive Sectors Positioning At the 52nd percentile, sector positioning shows a market in balance, with no meaningful shift toward either cyclicals or defensives, pointing to a lack of strong conviction. Image: Deutsche Bank…

S&P 500 Performance After Seven Week Wins Streaks Up >10% A seven-week winning streak and a double-digit gain tend to set the tone. Since 1950, US stocks have delivered an average 12-month return of 15.7%…

CTAs Exposure to Equities Since the start of the year, CTAs have cut equity exposure to the 49th percentile, but their positioning remains solidly long, pointing to a cautious but constructive stance. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ Goldman’s Momentum Factor has jumped over 25% in the past three months. Moves like this are rare, only 11 since 1980. The historical playbook points to…

Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P…

U.S. Risk Sentiment Indicator U.S. equities have surged, but risk sentiment stays neutral, leaving room for the rally to run as many investors stay on the sidelines. Image: TS Lombard

GS Risk Appetite Indicator and U.S. Equity Momemtum 1-Year Z-Score When risk appetite and momentum run too hot, like today, future equity returns typically fade under the weight of easy optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

Cumulative YTD Change in Consensus 2027 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure and energy are carrying the bulk of S&P 500 EPS revisions, while the rest of the market is barely moving. Strip those sectors out and…

2026 S&P 500 EPS Revisions Analysts typically cut S&P 500 EPS forecasts as the fiscal year unfolds. This year is different. Estimates are moving higher, lifted by AI enthusiasm and reinforced by confident guidance. The…

Retail Share of Trading Volumes in Select U.S. Equity Index ETF Since 2021 Retail traders are piling into leveraged U.S. equity index ETFs, hardly a surprise given their long-standing appetite for leverage. The trade looks…