Macro Valuation Measure (S&P 500) U.S. stocks look rich compared with what today’s macro backdrop would normally justify. In previous cycles, such lofty valuations at these levels have often paved the way for years of…
Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 Bitcoin has closely tracked the Nasdaq 100 in recent years, mirroring shifts in market sentiment and risk appetite. That link is also relatively visible now, as the speculative mood encounters turbulence.…
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators The mood is bullish for now, and we’re not near the extremes. Market participants aren’t showing signs of fatigue just yet, at least until the next headline hits. Image: Goldman…
Margin Debt as Percentage of Real Disposal Personal Income Margin debt sits at a record share of real disposable income. With incomes stagnating and borrowing surging, investors look vulnerable. Markets appear calm, for now, but…
S&P 500 Aggregate vs Median Earnings Growth S&P 500 earnings rose 14.5% year-on-year in Q4 2025, exceeding initial estimates and marking the strongest quarterly gain in four years as profit growth broadened across sectors. Image:…
Performance – MSCI U.S. vs. All Country World ex. U.S. Ratio and Trend After nearly a decade of U.S. stocks trouncing global peers, international markets have finally turned the tables, making home bias look increasingly…
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts, emboldened by a firmer global growth backdrop, have pushed up MSCI AC World EPS forecasts for 2026, seeing technology and AI as key drivers of productivity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Investors stomach average yearly pullbacks of around 14%, but the S&P 500 still closed higher in 35 of the past 46 years. Volatility, after all, is the…
Number of U.S. IPOs Wall Street is about to wake up again. After a sluggish stretch, the U.S. IPO machine is set to roar back to life in 2026, with some 120 deals tipped to…
Valuation Percentile for Equity, Credit and Bond Valuations matter more over the medium term than in the moment. In years like 2025, robust growth let markets climb anyway, powered by rising profits despite high price…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at -0.22% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.