S&P 500 Buybacks vs. S&P 500 Composite 12-Month Trailing EPS Corporate buybacks and earnings growth have risen hand in hand. Much of that growth, though, reflects companies lifting their own share prices. With valuations stretched,…
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets (Midterm Election Years Only) Bull markets don’t offer immunity. U.S. midterm election years tend to bring choppier trading and elevated volatility for the S&P 500 until…
S&P 500 and Liquidity Index Improving liquidity is setting a friendlier tone for U.S. equities, helped by the Fed’s shift in balance sheet policy. The biggest shake-up could come once Trump’s new Fed chief runs…
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. equity valuations are still lofty, with major gauges more than two standard deviations above century-long norms. Cheap is not the word that comes to mind. Image: The…
Foreign Investors Equity Allocation Percentile vs. History In 2025, foreign investors substantially increased their holdings of U.S. equities, reaching record levels despite stretched valuations, a weakening dollar and better returns abroad. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
FINRA Debit Balance in Securities Margin Accounts Leverage in margin accounts has surged since April 2025, reflecting strong market optimism. The catch is that higher leverage can turn painful fast when volatility spikes, triggering forced…
Share of Global Market Capitalization The U.S., with barely 4% of the world’s people, dominates 62% of global equity value. Its innovation engines continue to magnetize foreign money. A reminder that global markets still move…
S&P 500 Earnings & Estimates and Earnings Growth Trend Line S&P 500 earnings have significantly outpaced historical growth trends. If profits start to slip in the coming quarters, richly valued stocks could face a sharp…
S&P 500 Performance and Risk Appetite Indicator Good news for the bulls: Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator broke above 1.0 last week, a bullish signal that has historically lined up with roughly 15% median gains…
Commodities vs. 50/50 S&P 500 and U.S. Treasuries Commodities remain undervalued relative to U.S. stocks and bonds, offering room for strategic allocations that enhance portfolio balance. Image: Bloomberg
Gold Prices in Real Terms Gold’s real price is sky-high right now. It’s a very different story from the dot-com boom, when investors piled into tech and gold fell out of favor almost overnight. Image:…