The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. In March, the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.7%, pointing to slowing economic activity ahead, but not suggesting an imminent recession. Image: The…
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns Considering the valuation of the U.S. stock market, investors may need to adjust their expectations for equity returns, which are likely to be lower in the coming…
Consensus Earnings Estimates Despite economic uncertainties and potential tariff impacts, downward revisions to 2025 EPS estimates have remained modest, underscoring their resilience. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Two-Day Returns for the S&P 500 The clustering of best and worst days underscores the importance of patience and discipline in investing. Selling after the worst days often means missing the best days that follow!…
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction A decline in margin debt has historically signaled impending market turbulence, as margin debt levels often reflect investor confidence and risk appetite. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Returns a Year After Spike in Policy Uncertainty Index The S&P 500 has a history of generating solid 12-month returns after periods of heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Even bulls and bears are calling a truce this Easter Monday—time to trade market chaos for chocolate eggs! Happy Easter Monday, Everyone!🐰😎
U.S. True Financial Conditions Index The U.S. True Financial Conditions Index stands at 6, indicating a slightly accommodative financial environment. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Maximum S&P 500 Drawdowns and Recessions If the U.S. economy enters a recession due to Trump’s tariffs, the stock market could decline further. The market appears not to have fully priced in the risk of…
Contributions to Annualized U.S. PCE Growth The U.S. stock market’s recent underperformance is expected to reduce the wealth effect, turning it from a boost to a drag on consumption and increasing the risk of a…
S&P 500 Intraday Swings Recent S&P 500 volatility, characterized by intraday swings exceeding 10% and VIX spikes echoing 2008 and COVID-era turbulence, appears to be stabilizing. Image: Bloomberg