Effect of a 10% Increase in Oil Prices on Inflation A 10% rise in crude oil prices would add modestly to headline inflation over the year. But if higher prices persist, the inflation effect would…

Global GS Financial Conditions Index Global financial conditions tightened by 14 basis points, which typically dampens spending and investment by households and firms, especially when triggered by geopolitical shocks like the current Middle East escalation.…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns March and April have a history of treating U.S. stocks well, as seasonal tailwinds lift sentiment. Maybe a dose of spring optimism is making the rounds on…

S&P 500 Price Reaction to Previous Military Escalations The headlines may be dramatic, but the market impact is likely to be muted. U.S. equities wobble at first, then settle once investors refocus on fundamentals. In…

S&P 500 – Performance of Largest 10 Stocks vs. Next 40 Stocks The S&P 500’s top 10 giants are lagging the next 40 stocks this year, contributing to the cap-weighted index’s weak gains amid high…

S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events Major geopolitical shocks can rattle investors, but U.S. stocks have a long track record of bouncing back, with median six‑month gains over 5% since World…

S&P 1500 Software & Services Median Shorts Short bets on software stocks have climbed to their highest level since the GFC, even as many firms keep turning in solid revenue growth. That crowding could spark…

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.48%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…

S&P 500 Dispersion While the S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, the action under the hood tells a different story: the realized volatility spread between the average S&P 500 stock and the index has…

Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events often rattle markets, but history shows U.S. stocks usually bounce back and push higher as investors look beyond the turmoil, showing that patience remains…

Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year.…