Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals have become as pricey as defensives, leaving them vulnerable if confidence falters. Higher energy costs or trade disruptions could worsen the pressure by dampening activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 16%, only a touch…
Equity Positioning Equity positioning has edged just below neutral, opening the door to further upside if momentum kicks in. For now, that spark is missing. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Risk Appetite Indicator Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator has slipped after recent events, sitting just below neutral, as markets take a more defensive stance. Market sentiment has clearly cooled amid growing uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs…
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has lasted eight years and delivered 288% gains. With this one only in its fourth, there’s good reason to think the…
Geopolitical Risk Index Geopolitical risk has risen sharply and this often coincides with higher equity volatility and risk‑off behavior in markets. Markets hate uncertainty, and geopolitics never fail to deliver it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations U.S. households are not fully buying the Fed’s inflation fight. One‑year expectations sit at 3%, above the 2% target, and longer‑term expectations aren’t much different. For most families, everyday costs haven’t…
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Market breadth across the S&P 500 faded during the latest rally, raising doubts about how much real strength sits behind the index.…
S&P 500 Return Around Geopolitical Risk Events The latest moves in the S&P 500 recall how markets have historically absorbed geopolitical risks: brief pullbacks followed by rebounds, often back to pre-shock levels in roughly a…
Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Spikes in oil prices typically push up headline inflation, but the effect on inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, is limited and usually short-lived. Energy shocks often…
Change in Global Financial Conditions Following 8 Largest Geopolitical Risk Shocks in the Middle East Even though past Middle East conflicts haven’t consistently tightened financial conditions, the global FCI is up 31bp. Sustained at this…