Average Global Policy Rate Global central banks moved decisively into rate‑cutting mode through 2025, with analysts expecting further, though more measured, easing in 2026, particularly in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After Down >15% YTD and Comes Back to Up Double Digits Momentum is with the bulls. Each time the S&P 500 has sunk more than 15% and then closed the year with…
Price of Gold Forecast Analyst forecasts for gold at the end of 2026 cluster near record highs, with most expecting bullion to gain about 7%. A slower climb than last year’s rally and with forecasts…
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and SLOOS With financial conditions easing and banks pulling back on loan tightening, the U.S. economy looks poised for stronger investment, hiring, and growth. But those tailwinds could reignite inflation if demand…
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, has cooled from a year ago but is still sitting close to the…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield U.S. Treasuries ended a stellar 2025, but few expect a repeat this year. Lower rates may offer some support, but heavy debt issuance, sticky inflation, and ongoing fiscal spending could keep…
U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession risk over the next 12 months is meaningfully above “business as usual,” but not at levels typically seen right on the eve of a downturn. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years are rarely smooth sailing for U.S. stocks. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has…
S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle In 2024 and 2025, the S&P 500 danced to the beat of the four-year election cycle. Is 2026 when the music changes? Image: Nautilus Research
Valuation – Market Capitalization of Stock Market / M2 Money Supply U.S. market capitalization has surged since late 2022, lifting valuations far beyond what M2 growth alone can explain. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When US Treasury yields rise quickly, equity valuations usually fall hardest among high-growth, richly priced names. One risk for 2026 is a sudden…