S&P 500 Operating Margin After the COVID-19 pandemic, the operating margins of companies in the S&P 500 have returned to a state of normalcy, leading to a positive trend of improved profitability and cash flows…

S&P 500 Composite in Elections Years and Election Years When >10% Gains in Previous Year Given the Fed’s interest rate projections, market sentiment indicators and historical market behavior, investors may reasonably expect the S&P 500…

S&P 500 Annual Chart Despite an impressive 24.2% gain in 2023, the S&P 500 index has done virtually nothing over the past two years. When adjusted for inflation, it is still significantly below its peak.…

Range of U.S. GDP YoY Growth Forecasts and Maximum Error over 12-Month Prior While the U.S. economy may avoid a recession in 2024, U.S. GDP forecast dispersion remains at high levels, highlighting the inherent uncertainty…

Cumulative Asset Flows in % of AUM Terms In 2023, there has been a notable trend of strong inflows into “risk-free” assets, indicating a growing preference for low-risk investment options in an environment of higher…

S&P 500 Average Return per Day In 2023, U.S. stocks have experienced high performance on Mondays and Fridays. The strong performance of the S&P 500 on Fridays reflects investor optimism and confidence in holding over…

S&P 500 – Margin Debt vs. Long-Term Trend A rise in the ratio of margin debt to the S&P 500 market cap could indicate a bullish outlook for the U.S. stock market, potentially signaling confidence…

S&P 500 Returns After >10% Gain in November and December When the S&P 500 posts a gain of more than 10% in November and December, it tends to perform strongly in Q1 and the following…

GDP Growth and CPI Forecasts In 2024, global growth is expected to mildly decelerate, followed by a gradual recovery in 2025. Additionally, inflation is projected to gradually decrease across most countries. Image: BofA Global Research

12-Month Rolling Money Market In/(Out)Flows vs. NY Fed 12-Month Ahead Yield Curve Implied Recession Probability The probability of a U.S. recession can significantly influence investor behavior, potentially leading to a rotation out of money markets…

Europe Market – Annualized Average of Monthly Real Price Returns High and falling inflation is generally a favorable environment for returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research