FMS Investors – What Is the Most Likely Source for a Systemic Credit Event? FMS investors view the China real estate as the biggest source of a systematic credit event due to excessive borrowing, with…
Total Return Performance Since First Fed Hike in March 2022 There has been a significant concentration of equity market returns following the first Fed hike in March 2022. This concentration should be considered by investors…
FMS Investors – Net % Say Global Profits Will Improve vs. ISM Manufacturing New Orders/Inventories There is a growing belief among FMS investors that global profits will improve in the future, which is encouraging. Image:…
U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary…
Net % Investors Say They Are Overweight Bonds FMS investors currently have their largest overweight position in bonds since the global financial crisis, indicating their strong confidence in lower inflation and yields for the year…
Fed Funds Rate and Dow Jones Index In the same way as it was in the 1970s, it’s all about the Federal Reserve. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Valuation – S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio The S&P 500 P/E multiple is expected to remain above the average level observed since 1990, indicating investors’ willingness to pay more for earnings, possibly due to optimism about…
S&P 500 Performance After >40% of the Components Make a 14-Day RSI >70 When more than 40% of S&P 500 components hit a 14-day RSI above 70, the S&P 500 index tends to perform strongly…
Cumulative Global Fund Flows Investors are showing less enthusiasm for equity funds. In contrast, flows into global bond and cash funds remain very strong, reflecting a prevailing investor sentiment towards these two asset classes. Image:…
U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy…
U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The projected ballooning of the U.S. federal debt by 2050 could have negative impacts on the U.S. economy, with more interest payments, limited resources, and potential constraints on…