U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In March, U.S. building permits declined to 1.372 million, below expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions.…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 Since 1950, May has been a dead spot for U.S. stocks. The market typically finds its footing in June and July, only to see momentum fade as August…
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate The S&P 500 sits squarely in the middle of its post-GFC trend channel, hardly stretched, but far from a bargain. Image: Deutsche Bank
Discretionary Positioning and Ex-MCG & Tech Earnings Growth Discretionary positioning continues to lag earnings growth beyond MCG and Tech, leaving upside on the table if revisions hold and macro risks stay in check. Image: Deutsche…
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate Analysts usually trim EPS estimates in the first four months of the year. Not this time. In 2026, revisions are heading higher, fueled by AI optimism…
Equity Sector Flows Money continues to pour into industrials, energy and materials, underscoring the ongoing tilt toward cyclical plays. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
S&P 500 Index Returns Past 10 Years (May – October) May-October is often seen as the weaker stretch for the S&P 500, but the track record tells a different story. Over the past decade, the…
S&P 500 Performance Since Start of the Year AI is no longer just a buzzword lifting mega-cap names, it is actively driving earnings growth and boosting productivity across corporate America. Since the start of the…
U.S. Tech Sector Share Buyback Announcements There’s no sign of a pause in U.S. tech buybacks, as strong earnings keep the pipeline active. That’s a tailwind for shareholders, and as long as profits hold up,…
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The rally has made U.S. equities a tougher trade. Upside now looks constrained, while the risk of a pullback is growing amid stretched valuations and a weakening macro…
S&P 500 Index Performance in Year +1 After Three Consecutive >=+20% Gains Following a powerful two-year run, the S&P 500 could bottom in the fall as markets test the new Fed chair, before pushing toward…