Magnificent Seven 12-Month Forward P/E Valuations for the Magnificent Seven have come down meaningfully from their peak and now sit near the lower end of the past seven years. They’re still not a bargain, but…

U.S. Equity Risk Indicator The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is at a level that has historically pointed to weakness over the short to intermediate term. But markets can stay stretched far longer than logic suggests,…

S&P 500 Quarterly EPS SA vs. S&P 500 Despite a strong second quarter of earnings, U.S. stocks have mostly gone nowhere. If the Fed turns more hawkish or rates stay elevated for longer, valuation multiples…

S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index vs. S&P 500 Equally-Weighted Index Investors looking to trim exposure to AI-fueled volatility may want to consider the equal-weight S&P 500. It beat the cap-weighted index during the dot-com bust and…

Equities, Cash and Real Estate as % of U.S. Household Net Financial Wealth Stocks have overtaken real estate as the bigger store of household wealth in the U.S., and that has become a meaningful tailwind…

Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When U.S. Treasury yields climb fast, the most expensive high-growth stocks often take the biggest hit. A sudden 50 basis point rise in…

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while consensus puts the odds closer to 20%, above…

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 Investors are still rotating out of mega-cap tech. Since late October 2025, the Magnificent Seven have underperformed sharply, while the broader market has proved…

Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading more than 50% above its estimate of medium-term fair value. Outside the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this stretched, leaving plenty of room for a…

S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections Ahead of midterm elections, U.S. equities have often gone sideways, with volatility rising and performance typically improving after the vote as uncertainty fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Crude Oil (USO) Oil and yields have moved together since the Middle East conflict started in February. But that correlation often weakens once tensions cool. Image: Real Investment Advice