S&P 500 – Short Interest on the SPY and QQQ U.S. ETFs Short positions in the SPY and QQQ US ETFs remain muted, indicating limited appetite for downside speculation. The market is still more comfortable…
Magnificent Seven Stocks vs. S&P 500 – Cumulative Revenue Growth Since 2016 Since 2016, Mag 7 revenue has climbed 375%, versus 95% for the S&P 500. Earnings tell the same story. A flow-driven pullback can…
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns When consumer confidence sinks, stocks often rebound anyway, turning lousy sentiment into fuel for gains. It’s a classic contrarian setup: the worse the mood, the better…
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. U.S. Households Holding of Equities % Total Financial Assets When everyone is piled into equities and valuations are stretched, there isn’t much cushion left. History doesn’t say a crash has…
Capex to Operating Cash Flow for U.S. and China Hyperscalers U.S. hyperscalers are on track to spend more than their operating cash flow in 2027. The market is no longer asking whether they can pay for…
Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events can jolt markets, but U.S. equities have kept climbing as investors look beyond the headlines, rewarding those who stayed the course. Image: Carson Investment…
Hyperscaler Capex by Company U.S. hyperscaler capex is on track to hit $740 billion this year and nearly $1 trillion by 2027. At that scale, it no longer looks cyclical. It looks like a structural…
Valuation – 10-Year Total Return for S&P 500 over the Last Century Based on Starting CAPE Ratio Markets have a habit of pushing valuations to extremes, but history is unforgiving: elevated CAPEs tend to disappoint…
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns On average, investors have to live through a 14% drawdown each year, but the S&P 500 has still ended higher in 35 of the past 46 years.…
Recession – Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle What a run. The U.S. expansion is now the sixth-longest on record. If 2026 passes without a recession, it climbs into the top five. Image: Deutsche Bank
Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change NYSE margin debt now exceeds $1.4 trillion, a 54% jump from a year ago and accelerating rapidly toward record territory. History shows that when leverage grows faster than…