Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors With investor allocation to equities at an all-time high, the market is increasingly vulnerable to volatility and significant losses, particularly if a…
U.S. Dollar vs. Gold – Share in Global Reserves As countries and central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves and international trade, gold has emerged as the preferred alternative…
Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns…
S&P 500 Recovery In just over two months, the post-“Liberation Day” recovery in the S&P 500 is the strongest and fastest on record, surpassing any rebound seen in the last 75 years. Image: Deutsche Bank…
NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks The annual rate of change in the NFIB Small Business Survey is closely correlated with the performance of U.S. small-cap stocks, making the NFIB index a valuable economic indicator…
Stock Returns over the Past 33 Presidential Terms Starting on Inauguration Day U.S. stocks, after experiencing a historic drop at the start of the year, have made a strong recovery during Trump’s second term and…
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring…
Federal Reserve Broad Real Effective Trade-Weighted Dollar Both historical trends and current economic indicators suggest that the U.S. dollar is entering a period of decline. Structural fiscal challenges, policy uncertainty, and cyclical patterns all point…
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Investors should expect only one 25bps Fed rate cut for the remainder of 2025, most likely in September, unless there is a significant…
S&P 500 Returns – Strong vs. Weak Periods U.S. stock market returns do tend to be weaker on average during the summer months (May–October) compared to the winter months (November–April). However, investors should consider seasonality…
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past five decades, five bull markets have lasted over two years, averaging 8 years and gaining 288%. Since the current bull market is just 32 months old and has…