U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation cooled in February as core CPI rose 0.22%, right on expectations. The annual rate slowed to 2.5%, marking steady disinflation progress but still short of the Fed’s 2% target.…

Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes Investors’ risk appetite for equities has cooled recently but stays in positive territory amid ongoing market swings. Sentiment has definitely softened, but bulls haven’t left the room. Image:…

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Inflation may feel abstract, but its impact isn’t: History shows the U.S. dollar has lost about 90% of its purchasing power since 1966. Only assets that outpace rising prices,…

U.S. Inflation: 1970 vs. Today The modern economy shows greater resilience to inflation pressures compared to the 1970s, but whether it avoids stagflation depends on how long the current geopolitical conflict lasts. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Public Opinion on Military Action in Iran Rising U.S. gasoline prices, together with the pushback against strikes on Iran, could push policymakers toward a brief and contained conflict. Image: J.P. Morgan

Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals have become as pricey as defensives, leaving them vulnerable if confidence falters. Higher energy costs or trade disruptions could worsen the pressure by dampening activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 16%, only a touch…

Equity Positioning Equity positioning has edged just below neutral, opening the door to further upside if momentum kicks in. For now, that spark is missing. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Geopolitical Risk Index Geopolitical risk has risen sharply and this often coincides with higher equity volatility and risk‑off behavior in markets. Markets hate uncertainty, and geopolitics never fail to deliver it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations U.S. households are not fully buying the Fed’s inflation fight. One‑year expectations sit at 3%, above the 2% target, and longer‑term expectations aren’t much different. For most families, everyday costs haven’t…

S&P 500 Return Around Geopolitical Risk Events The latest moves in the S&P 500 recall how markets have historically absorbed geopolitical risks: brief pullbacks followed by rebounds, often back to pre-shock levels in roughly a…