Gold Futures Gold’s 2026 gains have evaporated as sentiment flipped from rate cuts to higher-for-longer expectations. A stronger U.S. dollar is adding pressure, while forced selling to cover losses elsewhere is accelerating the selloff. Image:…
Cumulative Global Equity Fund Flows Across Regions U.S. equity inflows are holding up well and have picked up pace in recent months, adding fuel to the market’s upward momentum. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 – First Half of July Seasonality favors the bulls. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has advanced 69% of the time in the first half of July, with the Nasdaq 100…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in June The second half of June has a track record of frustrating equity bulls, with U.S. stocks often drifting lower. The bright spot is that we are now…
S&P 500 During The Dotcom Bubble Back at the start of the dotcom bust, U.S. tech stocks sold off while the rest of the market rose. If that pattern holds, the safest place to hide…
S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator As G10 excess liquidity remains in negative territory, the outlook for U.S. equities over the next six months darkens. When liquidity drains, stocks tend to feel it.…
Gold vs. Oil vs. Fed Pricing After moving opposite to oil in March and April, gold diverged in May and is now trading more in line with Fed rate expectations. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability The U.S.-Iran agreement has taken some tail risk off the table, with Goldman Sachs trimming its 12-month U.S. recession call to 15% from 25%, back at its long-term average. Image: Goldman…
U.S. Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions have eased since March, pointing to a more growth‑friendly backdrop. Looser conditions typically give near‑term GDP a lift. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech sits near neutral, while cyclicals remain deeply underweight at the 8th percentile. It would not take much positive news to trigger a sharp reversal. Image:…
S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish on U.S. equities. When net short positioning reaches these kinds of extremes, it has often set the stage for sharp short squeezes, a classic…