Valuation – 10-Year Total Return for S&P 500 over the Last Century Based on Starting CAPE Ratio Markets have a habit of pushing valuations to extremes, but history is unforgiving: elevated CAPEs tend to disappoint…
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns On average, investors have to live through a 14% drawdown each year, but the S&P 500 has still ended higher in 35 of the past 46 years.…
Recession – Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle What a run. The U.S. expansion is now the sixth-longest on record. If 2026 passes without a recession, it climbs into the top five. Image: Deutsche Bank
Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change NYSE margin debt now exceeds $1.4 trillion, a 54% jump from a year ago and accelerating rapidly toward record territory. History shows that when leverage grows faster than…
S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years After a weak first quarter, the S&P 500 is tracking the familiar Trump-era playbook, with a rally still very much in play for the rest of the year. For…
Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is at one of its most accommodative levels in years, a friendly setup for borrowing, fund-raising and broader risk appetite. Image: Deutsche Bank
Semiconductor Earnings vs. Hyperscaler Free Cash Flows Semiconductor earnings are riding the AI capex wave, but hyperscaler free cash flow is taking a hit as spending on chips, data centers, and networking accelerates. Image: Goldman…
Median Short Interest Across Russell 3000 Stocks Median short interest across Russell 3000 names has surged to multi-year highs as bearish positioning intensifies, setting the stage for a potential squeeze. Crowded shorts have a habit…
S&P 500 Performance After A >10% Q2 Quarter History leans very bullish. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in Q2, the rest of the year has finished in the red…
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio Valuations don’t matter until they do. Across 150 years of market history, stretched valuations have been a reliable warning sign, with each of the past three peaks followed by…
S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials) With S&P 500 profit margins holding near 13% and rates still low, equity valuations have more room to breathe. Goldman Sachs now expects 7% annual returns…