Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in…
Consensus Capex Growth Estimates As we move into 2026, hyperscale AI players are bracing for a sharp slowdown in capital spending—a shift that could weigh on their valuation multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus sees S&P 500 earnings growth to cool to 6% in 3Q 2025 from 11% in 2Q, but Goldman Sachs thinks the bar may be…
Valuation – Real S&P 500 Index with Recessions and S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio With the Shiller CAPE ratio hovering near 40 times earnings, the U.S. stock market looks expensive and long-term real returns are…
S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October Bulls welcome October’s new highs, knowing the fourth quarter has been kind: markets have risen more than 90% of the time, with average gains of…
Gold ETF Holdings The surge in Western gold ETF holdings tells a story of fragile nerves and strong convictions—uncertain macro signals, anticipated rate cuts, and a search for safety pushing both private investors and central…
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio For a while, valuations look irrelevant—until they dictate everything. Over the past 150 years, stretched multiples have reliably led to leaner returns, with the last three peaks leaving investors…
Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally The age-old adage “cash is king” looks increasingly dated. Non-bank investors have slashed their cash holdings to the lowest levels since at least 1999, leaving financial markets more exposed…
S&P 500 Earnings Unlike some past bull runs, this year’s rally in U.S. stocks has been driven more by solid earnings growth than by rising valuation multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – Fed Funds Rate and CPI With the Fed funds rate still running well above inflation, policy looks overly tight—and investors are betting on deeper rate cuts to follow. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After The Top 15 September Returns Ever Bears expecting a rough September were left flat-footed. Instead, the S&P 500 posted its 14th-strongest monthly rally since 1950, giving bulls fresh reason to hope…