S&P 500 Index vs. Insider Sells Insider selling usually rises with the market, as higher prices prompt executives to lock in gains. Lately, though, selling has cooled even as equities climb, pointing to a reduced…

Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility When markets are tranquil, systematic strategies tend to stay aggressively long equities to capture steady upside, a positioning that can unwind sharply when volatility comes back.…

U.S. Equity Issuance Surge in U.S. equity issuance has a habit of picking up near tops or as the cycle begins to turn. It is more a yellow flag than a call to exit. For…

Nine Day Win Streaks for the S&P 500 Nine-day winning streaks have been a reliable bullish signal for the S&P 500. In every instance since 1990, the index has been higher 12 months later, delivering…

Daily Percentage Change in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 10.26% last Friday, its sharpest decline since March 2020. The long-term story remains intact, but expectations had clearly overheated. Image:…

U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator Animal spirits are building, but not yet overheating. Retail activity and Goldman Sachs’s Speculative Trading Indicator are firm, still short of past cycle peaks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock sits at 3.2%, a relatively elevated level, but the rise appears driven by hedging activity rather than…

S&P 500 Returns After >19% in Two Months Since the late-March lows, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 19%. In similar rebounds, stocks have typically pushed higher over one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month horizons,…

Relative Total Return Performance S&P 500 Momentum vs. Low Volatility Stocks The ratio of S&P 500 momentum to low volatility stocks is nearing Tech Bubble peaks, pointing to a tech-fueled late cycle. The trend can…

CPI Computers, Periph and Others vs. Import Price (Leading Indicator) AI may put upward pressure on near-term CPI, especially in computers, peripherals and related electronics, as surging demand lifts the cost of chips, memory and…

The Math of Drawdowns – Recovery Requied to Break Even After a Portfolio Decline Cut a portfolio in half and you need to double it to break even. That is not bad luck, it is…