Market Implied Probability of a Fed Cut The odds of a September Fed rate cut have soared—current market pricing now suggests a very high probability after deeply disappointing U.S. labor market data. Image: TS Lombard
Most Shorted Stocks Relative to Russell 3000 Heavily shorted stocks generally underperform the broader market over the long term, but in 2025, they significantly outperformed, driven primarily by aggressive short covering. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…
Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales U.S. real retail sales and consumer confidence trends indicate cautious and subdued consumer spending growth, which has historically been linked to an increased risk of recession. Image: Real Investment…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns While the bull market continues, August is generally regarded as a challenging month for U.S. equities in post-election years, characterized by a higher likelihood of declines and…
S&P 500 – Hedge Funds vs. Retail Investors The contrast between hedge funds taking short positions and retail investors being long is often seen as a warning of potential equity market weakness over the next…
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter is rising again after a partial reset earlier in the first half of the year. Although this reset seems to have prolonged the…
S&P 500 Cyclical-Adjusted P/E Ratio vs. Net Private Foreign Inflows to U.S. Equities If foreign capital inflows weaken or reverse, U.S. stock valuations could come under downward pressure as investors reassess risk amid high prices…
S&P 500 and the 14-Day RSI The combination of the S&P 500’s overbought status, elevated complacency, and rich valuations suggests limited upside potential in the near term and calls for careful monitoring. Image: Bloomberg
Quarterly Capital Raised by SPACs In the first half of 2025, Special Purpose Acquisition Companies raised $12 billion—a significant increase from the same period in 2024—though still considerably less than in the first half of…
S&P 500 Market Capitalization to Real Disposable Personal Income The S&P 500’s market capitalization relative to real disposable personal income has reached a record high of 28 times, surpassing the previous peak of 25 times…
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle The behavior of the S&P 500—peaking in early August with a softer year-end rally—is a typical post-election year trend observed historically in U.S. presidential election cycles. Image: Ned Davis Research