Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning and ISM Manufacturing Discretionary investors remain underweight equities even as the ISM Manufacturing PMI stays solidly in expansion, leaving room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Capex to Operating Cash Flow for U.S. and China Hyperscalers U.S. hyperscalers are on track to spend more than their operating cash flow in 2026, 2027 and 2028. The market’s question has shifted from “Can…
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility Systematic strategies remain heavily overweight, with positioning in the 88th percentile. That alone is no immediate sell signal. Positioning can stay stretched as long as the…
MSCI World Sector/Style Valuations Valuations are rich across sectors and styles, leaving investors with almost no cushion. A slight turn in mood could push prices lower, with few supports below. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
S&P 500 2027 EPS Growth Based on Semiconductor Gross Margin Scenarios With semiconductors now an outsized, high-margin engine for the S&P 500, 2027 earnings growth is highly sensitive to how chip margins evolve. Image: Goldman…
5-Year Rolling Return of U.S. 10-Year Bonds Five-year rolling returns on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are now among the worst in a century, both before and after inflation. Much of the damage was done in the…
U.S. Corporate Profits as % of GDP U.S. corporate profits as a share of GDP are at record highs, which on their own don’t signal an imminent recession. The question is not whether margins are…
EUR/USD vs. Average of 5-Year Real & Nominal Rate Differential U.S–euro area rate differentials remain a key headwind for EUR/USD, with the narrative increasingly about Fed hawkishness and the prospect of wider spreads ahead. Image:…
S&P 500 Performance Around Earnings Seasons With the post-earnings lull over, Wall Street is now turning its attention to the next reporting season, a period that has often been friendly to U.S. stocks. Image: Deutsche…
S&P 500 Performance Around FOMC Meetings The S&P 500 sold off again after the FOMC meeting last week, only to rally the next day, as investors refocused on what matters most: earnings. Image: Deutsche Bank…
Global Financial Tightness Indicator vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI SA Tighter financial conditions are starting to hit manufacturing sentiment and order flow. If the squeeze persists, the ISM Manufacturing PMI could weaken further, adding pressure to…