7-10 Year Government Bonds, Total Return in US$ Since the tech war began, Chinese government bonds have outperformed their U.S., German and Japanese counterparts, delivering higher total returns in recent years. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Valuation – S&P 500 Index – BEst P/E Ratio The S&P 500’s P/E stands one standard deviation above its five-year average, flashing a mild overvaluation warning. But markets can stay pricey for a while, so…
Three-Year Total Returns of MSCI World Sector Indexes Tech and Communication Services sectors have dominated global equity returns in recent years, lifted by a surge in AI-driven innovation across hardware, software, and digital infrastructure. Image:…
Percentage of U.S. Large-Cap Equity Mutual Funds Beating the S&P 500 In 2025, only a small minority of large‑cap active equity funds kept pace with the S&P 500. Managers who underweighted the “Magnificent Seven” were…
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders aren’t betting heavily on a Fed rate cut at the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, with markets pricing in just an 18.8% chance…
Percentage of Time 60/40 Returns Were Positive or Outperformed Cash While cash remains an important component of financial stability, excessive cash holdings can hinder long-term wealth growth due to opportunity costs and inflation erosion. Image:…
S&P 500 Returns After Eight Month Win Streaks An eighth straight winning month in sight? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has done that only ten times, and almost never lost steam afterward. Nine out of…
World Technology Earnings Since 2010, the technology sector has consistently outpaced the broader market, driven by booming profits, the dominance of U.S. tech giants, and steady productivity gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuations – S&P 500 12-Month Fwd P/E Multiple – Top 5 Largest Stocks vs. Other 495 Stocks Valuations aren’t as stretched as in past bubbles. The U.S. market looks more balanced, with the top five…
Global Quarterly Tech Capex Growth Tech investment has surged in recent years, but the underlying rhythm hasn’t changed: global tech capex has grown 14.6% annually since 2013, right in line with its decade‑long trend. Image:…
U.S. High-Yield Spreads vs. Corporate Cash Flow as % of Debt (Leading Indicator) Rising AI infrastructure spending and swelling debt are draining liquidity, setting the stage for weaker cash-flow-to-debt ratios in 2026 and wider credit…