Fed Funds Rate Path Implied by the Median Dots The Fed is signaling higher rates for longer, with a two-hike baseline for 2026, a 2029 median fed-funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75%, and a neutral…

Dividends as % of Capital Expenditures The AI and infrastructure boom has pushed capex higher, but dividends have grown faster. The dividends-to-capex ratio has risen from 20% in the late 1990s to 50% today. U.S.…

S&P 500 Reported Earnings, Inflation-Adjusted to 2026 Dollars S&P 500 earnings just broke a 90‑year trend channel. Can profits stay this hot? The risk is a mean reversion that leaves current multiples looking far too…

S&P 500 Performance on Day of First Hike The last four first-hike days have been positive, with several big single-day gains, as the widely anticipated move clears the Fed doubts on timing. So, is this…

Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders are betting on a Fed rate hike today, with markets pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps move. But when oil…

S&P 500 Performance on the Day of the FOMC Meeting U.S. stocks have struggled on FOMC days this year. Can this week break the pattern? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Bond Positioning Bond positioning has sunk to the 5th percentile. If history rhymes, yields are near a short-term peak. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Valuation – S&P 500 Fwd 12-Month P/E Multiple vs. EPS Yield Gap vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury So far in 2026, U.S. equities have digested higher rates mostly through multiple compression, leaving the valuation gap…

Change in Foreign Holdings of U.S. Equities Foreign investors now hold roughly $10 in U.S. equities for every $1 they have bought. The buying that built the position was modest. The position itself is not.…

S&P 500 Performance on the Week of FOMC Meetings U.S. stocks have whipsawed through recent FOMC meetings, but the average week still closes in the green. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles History says the S&P 500 tends to stumble in the weeks after the Fed starts hiking, before recovering as the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs…