VIX Seasonality Summer calm rarely lasts. U.S. stock volatility usually kicks in about now. Does this time break the pattern? Image: Topdown Charts

Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has run well ahead of its long‑term median over the past years, but that kind of strength will be tough to repeat from today’s…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 September has earned its reputation as the S&P 500’s worst month, the only one with a negative average return since 1950. Then comes the final quarter,…

S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 September is typically a weak month for U.S. equities, and midterm years tend to make it worse. Once Election Day passes, uncertainty lifts and markets frequently improve. Image:…

S&P 500 Performance After a Positive August and YTD Between 10% and 17.5% History says this setup is bullish. Since 1945, when August closed in the green with the market up between 10% and 17.5%…

U.S. Equity Market Capitalization Since ChatGPT launched, multiple expansion has contributed 25% of the surge in U.S. market cap, crushing the equity risk premium and leaving little room for error if AI demand or earnings…

S&P 500 and 10-Year Yield Correlation Daily moves in U.S. stocks and 10-year UST yields have turned sharply negative, eclipsing 2022 levels. But over the past four years, it has been the volatility of rates,…

PHLX Semiconductor Index Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Every year, the PHLX Semiconductor Index makes investors sit through an average 30% drawdown. But it has closed higher in 20 of the last 31 years.…

Share of Mutual Funds Outperforming Benchmarks 42% of large-cap mutual funds are beating their benchmarks, still above the long-term average of 37%. The catch? Most managers who beat the market one period can’t do it…

Magnificent Seven Minus S&P 500 ex Magnificent Seven EPS Growth After years of leading, the Magnificent Seven’s EPS growth has cooled to the point where the rest of the S&P 500 is now growing faster,…

FX Impact from AI Disruption to Services As AI pushes the marginal cost of cognitive work lower, the UK stands out: its services-heavy economy leaves sterling the most exposed to disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank