U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Fair Value Model The 10-year U.S. Treasury is yielding about 4.7%, roughly 40 basis points above its fair-value estimate of 4.3%. That spread favors mean-reversion trades over outright directional bets.…
Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield U.S. equities are trading at stretched valuation percentiles on the Shiller P/E, while the 10‑year Treasury yield sits close to its long‑term average. Image: Goldman Sachs…
SpaceX and Median of 20 Largest IPOs on Nasdaq Wall Street’s old joke that IPO stands for “It’s Probably Overpriced” feels a little less funny now, but not entirely wrong. SpaceX is lagging most other…
Real U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Y/Y Growth In recent quarters, U.S. consumers have continued to reallocate spending toward experience‑driven categories like travel, dining and recreation, even as overall services spending growth has cooled. Image: Goldman…
Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) Relative to Cap-Weight S&P 500 (SPY) As megacap leadership fades, market breadth is improving. This isn’t an outflow from equities. It’s just a rotation out of concentration. Image: Real Investment Advice
The Performance of the S&P 500 Before and After Midterm Elections History has been kind to investors after midterms. In all 20 midterm elections since World War II, the S&P 500 has been higher nine…
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio On the Shiller CAPE, U.S. stocks are back in the stratosphere, the kind that thrills investors on the way up and has a habit of burning them…
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM August rivals May as the worst month for equity outflows from mutual funds and ETFs. As geopolitical risk builds, should…
U.S. Tech Sector Flows Despite the pullback in tech names, the money isn’t leaving: Tech inflows persist and semi ETFs are still seeing heavy volume. This looks like a consolidation, not the end of the…
10-Year Rolling Annualized Equity vs. Bond Performance (Ex Post Equity Risk Premia) On a 10-year rolling annualized basis, U.S. equities have outperformed bonds by one of the widest margins since the 1920s and 1950s. Image:…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The NAAIM Exposure Index at 79.70 shows that active managers are still risk-on, with robust U.S. equity exposure and a bullish outlook. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index…