S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield With the S&P 500 equity risk premium slipping below zero, markets are flashing a warning: risk isn’t being rewarded anymore. Image: Bloomberg
Gold vs. S&P 500 Gold is keeping pace with the S&P 500, defying the long-standing pattern of equity dominance in the fiat era and reasserting its appeal as a hedge against market and currency risk.…
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The rebound in the S&P 500’s 52-week market breadth suggests the rally has room to run, with broader participation hinting at strategic…
U.S. Share Buyback Announcements Bulls are right to smile: At $6–7 billion a day through year-end, U.S. corporate buybacks are the market’s invisible hand—lifting prices and muting every attempt at a selloff. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio By the Shiller CAPE’s measure, U.S. stocks are back in the stratosphere — the kind that’s thrilled investors on the way up, and burned them on the…
U.S. Equity Returns It’s not a bubble—at least not yet. But with AI money flooding in and U.S. companies rethinking how they raise and spend cash, investors can’t afford to ignore valuations, balance sheets, or…
S&P 500 Returns into Year-End Following >15% Through October When Wall Street catches fire, it usually keeps burning. In years when the S&P 500 has already surged more than 15% by late October, it has…
Average Equity Fund Flow by Calendar Month Over the Past Decade Excluding U.S. Election Years History says year-end momentum has legs: outside U.S. election years, equity flows spike in December and stay strong through Q1—adding…
Performance of a Basket of Stocks with the Most Net Call Volume in the Previous Week The latest U.S.-China trade escalation is a reminder of how fast momentum-driven strategies can crumble once volatility resurfaces and…
S&P 500 Performance During and After Government Shutdowns Even the longest government shutdown in U.S. history couldn’t rattle Wall Street. Stocks held firm—and historically, once Washington gets back to work, equities have gained an average…
Valuation – S&P 500 Real Value Index Since 1871, the S&P 500 real total returns, dividends reinvested, have averaged 6.9% a year. The U.S. Real Value Index has always mean-reverted — and right now, it…