Oil Prices vs. U.S. Inflation When oil rises, inflation tends to follow, pushing up energy and transport costs that ripple across the economy. That dynamic often pressures equities, as margins tighten and consumers pull back.…
S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rarely delivered average annual returns. Will 2026 extend the winning streak with another round of outsized gains well above 10%? For…
Valuations and Dow Jones U.S. stocks are priced for perfection, with valuations back in territory that has a habit of ending badly. Calling the turn is never easy, but when markets run this hot, even…
Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscaler capex is on track to hit $757 billion this year and climb to $920 billion by 2027. At that magnitude, it looks less cyclical and more like a structural shift. Image: Goldman…
Real Estate Positioning At the 89th percentile, real estate positioning is firmly overweight, leaving the trade at risk if yields climb or rate-hike expectations pick up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q3 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast down to 2.46% from 2.47% a week earlier, a marginal trim that keeps the steady growth narrative firmly in…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At 11%, the market-implied odds of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months sit below the long-run…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has climbed and is nearing stretched territory as investors pile into higher-risk trades. Riding the upside works, but only until positioning becomes the…
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The S&P 500 52-week market breadth improved meaningfully last week, a development bulls tend to welcome since durable rallies usually require participation…
Materials Group Positioning Materials positioning has slipped into the 1st percentile, leaving investors deeply underweight. At levels like these, even a small shift can trigger a sharp response. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 80.62, the S&P 500 has eased slightly from overbought levels but remains stretched, as dip buyers stepped in near the 50-DMA. Image: Real Investment Advice