The Math of Drawdowns – Recovery Requied to Break Even After a Portfolio Decline Cut a portfolio in half and you need to double it to break even. That is not bad luck, it is…
S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains The bulls have history on their side. Since 1950, a May rally of more than 5% in the S&P 500, like this year, has been followed…
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth The rally in stocks was not just about price action; it was powered by the strongest S&P 500 earnings growth in at least four years. When earnings drive the move,…
Equity Positioning Overall equity positioning is in the 61st percentile, pointing to a modest overweight. Crowding is building in large caps, especially tech, leaving the market vulnerable if momentum fades. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts keep nudging up MSCI AC World EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027, betting the AI and tech boom will drive margins and profits rather than another wave of exuberant spending.…
Sector ETF Flows Money is piling into tech. Since the S&P 500’s March 30 low, roughly $25 billion has flowed into tech sector ETFs, while non-tech sector ETFs have seen about $4 billion in combined…
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. U.S. Households Holding of Equities % Total Financial Assets When equity exposure is high and valuations are stretched, as they are today, the safety net disappears. History does not say…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q2 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast down to 2.50% from 2.61% a week earlier, still pointing to a steady expansion. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of…
Number of U.S. IPOs 40 U.S. companies have gone public so far this year, while Goldman Sachs expects roughly 100 IPOs to raise about $160 billion in 2026. Geopolitical uncertainty and recent equity market volatility…
S&P 500 Performance – % Difference vs. the 200-DMA The S&P 500 is trading about 11% above its 200-day moving average, not far from past peaks. The further it stretches, the more vulnerable it becomes…
S&P 500 Index vs. 40-Week Moving Average The 40-week moving average offers a straightforward way to manage S&P 500 exposure. Add risk when the index trades above it. Trim risk when it falls below. Process…