U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession.…
S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle During midterm election years, U.S. stocks tend to turn more volatile and take a breather, tracing the familiar four-year presidential cycle. This choppiness is common as policy uncertainty peaks before…
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally In the days following “Liberation Day,” the odds of a sharp rally were high. Now, the balance has flipped: drawdown risk feels heavier, and equity asymmetry reflects a…
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.4% in January. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…
Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors are punishing U.S. sectors most exposed to AI‑driven automation, betting that vulnerable business models will struggle to keep pace, despite steady fundamentals. Automation’s shockwaves are reshaping entire sectors. Image:…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast to 2.37% from 2.63% a week earlier, a slight pullback that still signals steady growth ahead. Image: Federal Reserve…
Hyperscaler Quarterly Capex Growth Later in 2026, hyperscalers are expected to ease capex growth, a shift that could drag on valuations but also leave them vulnerable in the supply-strained fight for AI dominance. Image: Goldman…
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In December, U.S. building permits rose to 1.448 million. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal…
Congressional Budget Office Forecast of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The Congressional Budget Office sees the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edging higher over the next few years as swelling federal debt puts upward pressure on borrowing…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Markets show little sign of tiring, with investors keeping S&P 500 sector valuations elevated well above historical norms on the back of steady earnings optimism. Image: Goldman…
Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets hate uncertainty. History shows that the S&P 500 tends to stumble when major conflict breaks out, but it usually rebounds quickly unless demand or earnings take a real…