$100,000 over 30 Years: The Fund vs. The Average Investor U.S. funds returned an annualized 8.2%, but the average investor earned only about 7.0%. Much of the gap came from poor timing: buying after prices…
MSCI AC World EPS Wall Street is pushing up MSCI AC World EPS targets for 2026 and 2027, betting AI’s surge will lift margins instead of sparking another capex boom-and-bust. So where’s the bubble: in…
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies remain bullish, ranking in the 76th percentile and still overweight. Discretionary investors are more cautious, sitting at the 44th percentile and slightly underweight, leaving room to add risk.…
S&P 500 Sectors Announced Buybacks (Last 3 Months) Over the past three months, buyback announcements have been led by Financials, Tech and Industrials, which together make up most of the repurchase activity in U.S. equities.…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 13.6%, leaving the expansion narrative in place. For now, the cycle…
S&P 500 Implied Correlation The S&P 500 may be rising as a whole, but individual stocks are telling very different stories. As correlations fade, fundamentals are starting to matter again. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Commodities (Oil, Gold, Copper) – Commodity Net Long Positioning Momentum in gold and copper is firmly with the bulls as net-long positions build. The trend still has legs, but this isn’t an early-cycle trade anymore.…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed raised its Q3 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.27% from 2.14%, pointing to continued momentum in the economy. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkClick the…
S&P 500 3-Month Option-Implied Volatility Single-stock volatility in the S&P 500 has eased from July’s extremes but remains above its long-term average, while index volatility is still relatively calm. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in Mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has pulled back from recent highs, but remain decisively overweight, sitting in the 74th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 71.51, the S&P 500 is slightly overbought. Sentiment remains bullish, and no major technical breaks have emerged. More volatility may be ahead. Image: Real Investment Advice