Annual Real S&P 500 Index and 3-Year Average Annual Return The S&P 500 sits about 18% above its three‑year average, a strong run by any measure, but past rallies this sharp rarely come without some turbulence…
January Barometer and S&P 500 Index Return Rest of Year When U.S. stocks end January in the green, momentum usually keeps rolling. Historically, a positive January has been followed by above-average returns 87% of the…
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies sit comfortably at the 83rd percentile, but discretionary investors remain stuck at the 51st percentile, leaving room for more upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning At -0.2, Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator points to mild bearish sentiment that has often preceded S&P 500 gains in the month ahead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At a forward P/E of 17 versus 22 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index highlights just how tight market leadership has become. Opportunities may lie in the market’s middle…
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF projects global growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Strong tech spending, policy support, and private-sector agility are keeping momentum alive despite shifting trade winds.…
S&P 500 Buybacks S&P 500 buybacks have lost some steam lately, but most analysts view it as a short breather following record highs, not a sign that corporate cash is drying up. Image: Deutsche Bank…
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index U.S. rate volatility has fallen toward a four-year low, with the MOVE index pointing to investor confidence in moderate economic growth and a still-solid jobs market. Image: The Daily Shot
AAII Sentiment Survey Retail investor momentum in the U.S. shows no signs of slowing, with AAII bulls outpacing bears for a seventh consecutive week. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning At the 57th percentile, positioning points to a market that has gone neutral on mega-cap growth and tech, far from either exuberance or despair. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Market Cap vs. Equal Weighted Returns A wave of sector rotation has lifted the S&P 500 equal-weighted index to record highs, tightening its gap with the market-cap gauge as investors pull back from…