Seasonality – S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 September has earned its reputation as the S&P 500’s worst month, the only one with a negative average return since 1950. Then comes the final quarter,…
U.S. Small Cap Stocks – S&P 600 / S&P 500 Pressure is mounting on U.S. small caps. The S&P 600 has broken below its 50-day moving average, ending a run of outperformance that began in…
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecast Goldman Sachs sees U.S. core PCE cooling to 2.2% year-over-year by Q4 2027, and that makes a string of additional rate hikes beyond today’s pricing hard to justify. Image: Goldman…
Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield The Shiller P/E says US equities are expensive. The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield, by comparison, is back around its historical average. Is it time to favor…
Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE Bond traders are hedging for sharp moves in U.S. rates, while equity investors still expect a relatively quiet stock market. That divergence isn’t automatically bearish, but it’s a flashing…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed lifted its Q4 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.60% from 2.51%, reinforcing the view that the expansion still has legs. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New…
Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning and ISM Manufacturing Discretionary investors remain underweight equities even as the ISM Manufacturing PMI stays solidly in expansion, leaving room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation With vol-control funds now at the 96th percentile, they are nearly max long and have little firepower to fuel another wave of buying. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Capex to Operating Cash Flow for U.S. and China Hyperscalers U.S. hyperscalers are on track to spend more than their operating cash flow in 2026, 2027 and 2028. The market’s question has shifted from “Can…
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility Systematic strategies remain heavily overweight, with positioning in the 88th percentile. That alone is no immediate sell signal. Positioning can stay stretched as long as the…
S&P 500 Earnings vs. Their Long-Term Trend Consensus forward earnings for the S&P 500 are now about 50% above their long-term growth trend. That does not mean the market has reached an immediate top, but…