After Narrow Market Leadership: Drawdowns in the Leading Sector Across decades, concentrated leadership has signaled fragile market health: when only a few sectors drive gains, weakening breadth tends to precede sharp declines. Image: Real Investment…
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm years have a reputation for shaky markets. History tells a different story in second presidential terms, with U.S. stocks averaging an 8.8% gain since…
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is surging into territory that has some investors on edge, firmly in what many would call the danger zone. For now, momentum still favors the…
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts are steadily raising MSCI AC World EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027, betting the AI and tech boom will lift profits and margins rather than spark another hype-driven spending cycle.…
U.S. ETF and Mutual Fund Flows Over the past year, U.S. investors have favored bonds and money market funds over riskier equities, with geopolitical tensions hanging over markets and interest rates staying elevated. Image: Goldman…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed inched up its Q2 2026 US GDP nowcast to 2.61% from 2.59% a week ago, keeping the expansion story intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New…
Citi Economic Surprises The U.S. economy has held up better than its peers since the Middle East conflict escalated, as growth prospects elsewhere have dimmed, pushing investors toward the U.S. as the steadier bet. Image:…
Average Global Equities Returns Depending on Absolute Moves in U.S. 10-Year Yieldss Big moves in bond yields rarely go unnoticed by equities. A rapid rise in yields can act as a red flag for stocks,…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History S&P 500 Financials continue to trade at modest valuations versus other sectors, while Industrials already reflect a fair amount of optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1-Month Rolling Correlation of 10-Year UST Yield Change and S&P 500 Returns Since the start of the Middle East conflict, U.S. Treasuries have struggled to play their traditional diversification role. The one-month rolling correlation between…
Valuation – The Buffett Indicator The Buffett Indicator, which compares U.S. market capitalization to GDP, hit a fresh high. It’s not a crash signal, but it raises a flag. At these levels, history suggests weaker…