U.S. GDP vs. S&P 500 EPS With GDP growth and S&P 500 earnings moving in lockstep, vigilance is warranted. Valuations are lofty, forecasts are rosy, and history shows that when the economy cools, earnings don’t…

S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years rarely bring comfort to investors, but history still leans bullish. U.S. stocks tend to outperform in a President’s second term, as many view…

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Gold has jumped beyond $4,000, but investors in the largest gold miners ETF are heading for the exits, wary of chasing the highs. Contrarians, meanwhile, smell opportunity. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Average Strategist Year-End S&P 500 Forecast Wall Street’s top strategists are unusually in sync, calling for the S&P 500 to extend its run in 2026 amid solid earnings, a supportive rate backdrop, and steady AI-fueled…

7-10 Year Government Bonds, Total Return in US$ Since the tech war began, Chinese government bonds have outperformed their U.S., German and Japanese counterparts, delivering higher total returns in recent years. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Valuation – S&P 500 Index – BEst P/E Ratio The S&P 500’s P/E stands one standard deviation above its five-year average, flashing a mild overvaluation warning. But markets can stay pricey for a while, so…

Three-Year Total Returns of MSCI World Sector Indexes Tech and Communication Services sectors have dominated global equity returns in recent years, lifted by a surge in AI-driven innovation across hardware, software, and digital infrastructure. Image:…

Percentage of U.S. Large-Cap Equity Mutual Funds Beating the S&P 500 In 2025, only a small minority of large‑cap active equity funds kept pace with the S&P 500. Managers who underweighted the “Magnificent Seven” were…

Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders aren’t betting heavily on a Fed rate cut at the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, with markets pricing in just an 18.8% chance…

Percentage of Time 60/40 Returns Were Positive or Outperformed Cash While cash remains an important component of financial stability, excessive cash holdings can hinder long-term wealth growth due to opportunity costs and inflation erosion. Image:…

Annual Real S&P 500 Index and 3-Year Average Annual Return The S&P 500’s three‑year return is running 18% above its 3-year average. That’s not a record, but history says big deviations like this have often come…