Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations Markets can defy gravity for years, but history keeps whispering the same warning: lofty CAPEs don’t end kindly for long-term investors. Discipline, fundamentals, and diversification aren’t just advice—they’re…
S&P 500 Total Return and Gold Return Gold’s shine isn’t dimming, even as U.S. stocks rally. Both are up together for a third straight year. Investors now view bullion as shelter with upside, and central…
S&P 500 Valuation U.S. stocks are priced for perfection — valuations sitting at levels that rarely end well. Timing the turn is tricky, but when prices run this hot, even the slightest cool-down in fundamentals…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 23, sentiment remains cautious — market participants are watchful, not terrified. Image: Cable News Network
MSCI AC World: 10-Year Annualized Total Return Goldman Sachs forecasts a 10-year annual return of 7.7% in USD for global stocks — a solid long-term outlook, though shy of the boom years’ pace. Image: Goldman…
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total Once a mirror of the wider market, the S&P 500 now moves to the rhythm of its ten biggest…
S&P 500 3-Month Realized Average Stock Correlation Correlations in the S&P 500 are sinking, turning the market from one big macro trade into a stock picker’s playground where fundamentals finally matter again. Image: Goldman Sachs…
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment After a brief reset earlier this year, the Euphoriameter—a mix of forward P/E, VIX, and bullish sentiment—is heading north again, a reminder that optimism still…
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Only a month ago, traders were almost sure a December rate cut was locked in as the data softened. Now, opinion is split between…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 87.87, the NAAIM Exposure Index leaves little room for doubt: active managers are firmly in risk-on mode — clear evidence that Wall Street’s animal spirits are very much…
Historical Length of Recoveries and Subsequent Market Declines Every U.S. expansion since 1871 has hit a wall, and markets have stumbled hard each time. The current bull run, born out of the March 2020 lows,…