Arithmetic Average Annual Real Return of S&P 500 over Different Periods Since 2009, S&P 500 investors enjoyed annualized real returns about 50% above the 1900+ historic average, fueled by low rates, QE, and post-crisis recovery.…
S&P 500 Index Single Day Average Returns December 26 tends to put Wall Street in a good mood. Since 1950, it has been the S&P 500’s second-best day of the year, averaging a 0.49% gain,…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 58, the Fear & Greed Index points to a market edging into greed, far from extreme levels and lively enough to feed the rally. Image: Cable News…
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.2% in November. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…
Market Capitalization – The Smartphone Revolution The iPhone’s 2007 launch ignited a smartphone revolution that sent the market capitalizations of U.S. giants like Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta skyrocketing. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Options: % of S&P 500 Listed Volume Expiring within 24 Hours The frenzy in S&P 500 options expiring within 24 hours shows no sign of cooling, now making up more than 62% of…
Spot Gold Gold has jumped 70% this year, set for its best run since 1979, lifted by central-bank demand, fresh ETF inflows, and hopes of Fed rate cuts ahead. Image: Bloomberg
Positions in S&P 500 Equity Futures by Asset Managers Equity positioning is far from stretched. Asset managers haven’t returned to their peak long bets in U.S. stock futures, and with resilient growth, easier policy, and…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 95.08, the NAAIM Exposure Index points to active managers staying heavily invested in U.S. equities and keeping faith in market momentum The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index…
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The relative performance of cyclical stocks versus defensives currently signals market expectations for real U.S. GDP growth of 2%, below Goldman Sachs’…
S&P 500 Price Targets If valuations stay where they are, the S&P 500 index could finish 2026 around 7,330, assuming a 26 times multiple on $282 in forward earnings. Image: Real Investment Advice