U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Crude Oil (USO) Oil and yields have moved together since the Middle East conflict started in February. But that correlation often weakens once tensions cool. Image: Real Investment Advice
History of Asset Bubbles Past 60-Years The AI rally is powering investor enthusiasm, with semiconductor names among the biggest winners. It’s also reviving talk of past hype cycles and whether the run can last. Image:…
Hyperscaler Capex Estimates by Year Wall Street has been underestimating the scale of hyperscaler spending on AI infrastructure. What looked like a one-time wave now looks more like a multiyear arms race across data centers,…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 39 on the Fear & Greed Index, sentiment is in fear territory, but not outright panic, leaving U.S. stocks room to grind higher if headlines improve. Image:…
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. stocks are still priced richly, with most valuation metrics sitting more than two standard deviations above history. Cheap may be dead for now, but momentum could keep…
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail bulls are losing some steam again. AAII sentiment weakened sharply, pushing the bull-bear spread below zero and keeping upside potential alive. Image: The Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History The Energy sector remains relatively inexpensive versus other sectors, while Industrials look richly priced on optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 84.02, the NAAIM Exposure Index shows that active managers are still carrying plenty of equity exposure and staying bullish on U.S. stocks. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures puts the S&P 500 close to oversold territory, opening the door to a reflex bounce. Image: MarketDesk Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are pricing in steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to U.S. real GDP growth of…
Days per Year the S&P 500 Price and Breadth Moved in Opposite Directions Years like this, when the S&P 500 holds firm while breadth lags, have tended to come with a higher risk of volatility…