Non-Financial Corporate Profits vs. 5-Year Average U.S. corporate profits have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, far outpacing the real economy. Past cycles warn that such imbalances eventually correct when market sentiment shifts. Image: Real Investment…
S&P 500 Yearly Returns The lesson from the “10 best days” rule is blunt: market timing rarely shows mercy. Miss those standout days in the S&P 500 each year and, instead of gains, your portfolio…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The S&P 500 trades not far from record highs, and with sentiment still cautious at 39 on the Fear & Greed Index, the door remains open for further…
Valuations – MSCI Index Market Capitalization Relative to M2 U.S. market capitalization has rocketed since late 2022, pushing valuations to levels that M2 growth can’t justify on its own. There’s more at play now than…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 16%. The odds still favor continued expansion rather than recession. Image:…
Volatility – VIX Index With the VIX above 20, volatility is still running high. That’s the kind of backdrop that usually pulls investors toward higher-quality stocks, as long as the selling doesn’t deepen. Image: MarketDesk…
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors grew more cautious over the past week, with the AAII bull-bear spread slipping into negative territory for the first time since Thanksgiving. That’s not surprising given the current uncertainty.…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Markets show little sign of tiring, with investors keeping S&P 500 sector valuations elevated well above historical norms on the back of steady earnings optimism. Image: Goldman…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 82.87, the latest reading shows active managers are staying bullish on U.S. equities, confident but not euphoric. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving…
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Goldman Sachs is sticking to its call for a 12% gain in the S&P 500 this year, to 7,600, fueled by solid growth, firm earnings, and a productivity kicker…
U.S. Dollar History vs. Neutral Value After tumbling to a four-year low amid rate-cut bets and policy uncertainty, the U.S. dollar has since stabilized around a more neutral level. Image: Real Investment Advice