Average S&P 500 Total Return Following Midterm Election Day Since 1874, U.S. stocks have averaged a 6% gain in the three months after a midterm election and a 14% gain in the year after. Once…
S&P 500 Returns Following Midterms That Left a Republican President Facing a Democratic Congress Bulls may have the wind at their backs. The S&P 500 rose in all seven periods when a Republican president faced…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 After the early-year pullback, the S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 points to a year-end rally, giving bulls plenty of reason to stay optimistic. Image: Ned Davis…
Gold Model Using a model that incorporates real yields, the dollar, the S&P 500, and copper, gold now appears to be trading under its fair value. That gives the bulls a cautious edge. Image: Bloomberg
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs remain heavily positioned in the S&P 500, at the 82nd percentile. They’re closer to neutral in the Nasdaq-100 at the 55th percentile, and notably subdued in the Russell 2000 at…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed raised its Q4 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.90% from 2.81%, with the expansion showing little sign of losing steam. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New…
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have kept trimming equity exposure, but positioning remains relatively firm at the 58th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Communication Services look cheap, while Healthcare and Consumer Staples have little room for disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S.-Listed ETF Cumulative Flows by Year More than $1.7 trillion has flowed into U.S.-listed ETFs so far this year, a record for this point in the year. If the pace holds, inflows could reach $2.3…
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates U.S. small-cap earnings growth is forecast to accelerate from 34% in 2026 to 48% in 2027, outpacing the S&P 500, where earnings growth is expected to cool from 33% to 16%.…
S&P 500 Earnings vs. Their Long-Term Trend Inflation-adjusted S&P 500 earnings are now at the top of a two-standard-deviation channel that has contained them for 90 years. This isn’t a market-top call, but it is…