Valuation – S&P 500 Trailing P/E: Current vs. Average Bull-Market Extremes At 26 times trailing earnings, the S&P 500 stands well above its historical average and many previous bull-market peaks, leaving little room for bad…
S&P 500 Days in a Row without a 1% Drop Thirty-five trading days without a 1% decline have left the S&P 500 unusually calm. Historically, stretches of such low volatility have been more common in…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 29, the Fear & Greed Index still points to fear, not panic. For U.S. equities, that leaves the door open to further gains if the headlines turn…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment After hitting a new two-year high of 102.7 three weeks ago, the NAAIM Exposure Index has since dropped to 71.92. Active managers have sharply cut their exposure to U.S.…
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total A handful of giants now dominate the S&P 500. The 10 largest stocks account for 40% of the index’s…
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds are already stretched at the 95th percentile, leaving little room for another wave of buying. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Hyperscaler Capex US hyperscalers are on track to spend $806 billion this year, with annual capex projected to reach $1.234 trillion by 2027. That kind of spending points to an AI infrastructure supercycle, not just…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs isn’t seeing a meaningful deceleration in the US economy, forecasting 2.2% growth in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, broadly in line with consensus, supported by a resilient labor market.…
Percentage Contribution of Returns Between Dividends, Earnings and Valuation Earnings, not multiple expansion, have driven global equities since 2025. That makes the rally more durable and less dependent on falling rates or a renewed surge…
Cumulative Flows Equity inflows have been exceptionally strong this year. Bond demand has held up just as well, even as yields have climbed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Number of Rate Hikes per Fed Tightening Cycle, 1994 to 2023 Since 1994, the Fed has gone through six tightening cycles. Five lasted for years and involved at least six rate hikes. But with real…