Stock Buybacks vs. S&P 500 With companies entering blackout periods in mid-June, share buybacks will slow, reducing a major source of equity demand. In an overbought market, this could amplify any weakness until buybacks return…
S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events While geopolitical events may cause short-term market disruptions, markets have historically shown resilience and recovered over time, especially beyond the usual 12-month tactical window. Image:…
Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors With investor allocation to equities at an all-time high, the market is increasingly vulnerable to volatility and significant losses, particularly if a…
U.S. Dollar vs. Gold – Share in Global Reserves As countries and central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves and international trade, gold has emerged as the preferred alternative…
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability The combination of a de-escalation in trade tensions, improved financial conditions, and a more optimistic growth outlook has led Goldman Sachs to lower its estimate of U.S. recession risk for the…
Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns…
S&P 500 Recovery In just over two months, the post-“Liberation Day” recovery in the S&P 500 is the strongest and fastest on record, surpassing any rebound seen in the last 75 years. Image: Deutsche Bank…
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The recent rally has made U.S. equities expensive compared to bonds. Historically, when the risk premium has been at current levels, the S&P 500 has delivered…
S&P 500 Index While the S&P 500 remains resilient near all-time highs, the sustainability of its momentum may be tested by sector rotation, potential shifts in tech leadership, and broader economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Image:…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 82.66, the current NAAIM Exposure Index suggests that active investment managers maintain strong confidence and notable exposure to U.S. equities. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents…
NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks The annual rate of change in the NFIB Small Business Survey is closely correlated with the performance of U.S. small-cap stocks, making the NFIB index a valuable economic indicator…