U.S. Dollar History vs. Neutral Value After tumbling to a four-year low amid rate-cut bets and policy uncertainty, the U.S. dollar has since stabilized around a more neutral level. Image: Real Investment Advice

Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly Win Streaks If February ends in the green, the Dow would notch 10 straight monthly gains, a streak seen only a handful of times since 1900. That strength says plenty…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 18%, a bit higher…

Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has delivered returns far above its historical norm over the past three years, but such strength will be hard to repeat given where valuations…

GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index With lower rates and quantitative tightening in the rearview mirror, easier U.S. financial conditions are providing a more supportive backdrop for growth in both household spending and corporate investment. Image:…

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast higher to 2.63% from 2.59% a week earlier, a small gain that keeps the steady-growth story alive. Image: Federal…

Global Earnings Growth Global earnings growth has climbed about 15% year-on-year in Q4 2025, the strongest pace in years, powered by robust gains in U.S. tech and a resurgence across emerging markets. Image: Deutsche Bank…

DM Manufacturing PMI vs. Global Central Bank Decision Index This year’s key macro theme is a global growth rebound, fueled by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have set the stage for a fresh…

S&P 500 at the Start of a Presidential Term The S&P 500 experienced its worst start to a U.S. presidential term in decades after the president’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. Hopes tied to tax…

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Relative performance between cyclical and defensive stocks implies markets are pricing in about 1.5% real U.S. GDP growth, short of Goldman Sachs’…

S&P 500 Index and Technical Score With a reading of 61.95, the S&P 500 has continued to consolidate. Some near-term softness wouldn’t surprise anyone, though bullish sentiment still dominates. Image: Real Investment Advice