S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. Subsequent 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is trading at a Shiller CAPE level seen only during the market’s most expensive episodes. History points to real annualized returns…
S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Bulls are still smiling. Historically, the S&P 500 has found its sweet spot from the fourth quarter of a president’s second year through the second…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 28, the Fear & Greed Index is still in fear territory, but not panic. If the headlines improve, U.S. stocks have room to move higher. Image: Cable…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 76.99, the NAAIM Exposure Index signals a modest pullback in active managers’ appetite for U.S. equities, but not a loss of conviction. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure…
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500 has become a market of giants. Its 10 largest stocks now represent 40% of the index…
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns The S&P 500 takes a hit of about 14% at some point each year. Investors hate it, but they have been rewarded over time: the index finished…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums Stocks in the U.S. and Japan offer investors little compensation for the extra risk they carry relative to bonds. That makes equities a tougher sell and leaves them vulnerable…
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing cooled slightly in September. The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 54.5, below expectations of 55.0, but remained in expansion territory for the ninth straight month. Growth…
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are expected to deliver 57% earnings growth this year, more than double the 23% expected for the rest of the S&P 500.…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees no sign of the US economy slowing meaningfully, sticking with a 2.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027, right in line with consensus, thanks to a resilient…
S&P 500 Monthly Performance in Midterm Election Years Since 1950, October has been the best month for midterm years, averaging a 3% gain and finishing higher 74% of the time. Is it time to be…