S&P 500 Annual Total Return, Conditioned on Reported EPS Direction Earnings up? The S&P 500 only rallied 79% of those years. Earnings down? It still climbed 66% of the time. That’s because markets trade on…
S&P 500 Returns After >10% Months When the S&P 500 explodes higher by more than 10% in a single month, as it did in April, bulls get excited for a reason. Since 1950, the market…
EPS Revisions Since the start of the year, EPS revisions have trended higher across the S&P 500, STOXX 600 and Topix, with MSCI EM leading the way as confidence in 2026 earnings grows. Image: Goldman…
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Investors have rushed back into Mega-Cap Growth and Tech, pushing positioning to the 95th percentile. The trade is now firmly overweight, but not quite at the June and last October…
Relative Performance of Hyperscalers to S&P 500 Hyperscalers have been trapped in a two-year range versus the S&P 500. Now the question is whether they can break out while AI capex returns remain in doubt.…
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite among U.S. equity fund managers has surged to its highest level this year, buoyed by easing Middle East tensions and continued resilience in…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 0.43% YoY in July. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
U.S. IG Credit Spread IG credit spreads in the U.S. have widened lately, particularly across tech, as the market demands a higher premium for AI-driven capex, heavy debt supply, rising leverage, and uncertain returns. Image:…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy keeps looking cheap against other sectors, while Industrials and Consumer Staples are already pricing in a lot of good news. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees the U.S. economy holding steady, with growth of 2.2% in both 2026 and 2027, a shade above consensus, as the labor market continues to show resilience. Image: Goldman…
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score With a reading of 86.38, the S&P 500 is firmly in overbought territory, while bullish sentiment shows little sign of fading. Image: Real Investment Advice