Investor Psychology Cycle When panic hits, markets overshoot to the downside, creating opportunities for contrarians to buy into peak fear. The mirror image? Euphoria, which usually sets up the exit. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in July to 437K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…
Magnificent Seven Minus S&P 500 ex Magnificent Seven EPS Growth After years of leading, the Magnificent Seven’s EPS growth has cooled to the point where the rest of the S&P 500 is now growing faster,…
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Small caps could deliver the biggest earnings surge, with profits expected to jump 36% this year and 48% in 2027, compared with 32% and 12%, respectively, for the S&P 500. Image:…
FX Impact from AI Disruption to Services As AI pushes the marginal cost of cognitive work lower, the UK stands out: its services-heavy economy leaves sterling the most exposed to disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equity Risk Premium In the U.S., the equity risk premium has shrunk to the point where stocks barely compensate investors for taking risk over bonds. That weakens the bull case for equities and sets the…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still looks like the cheap bet, while Industrials, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples are already priced as if nothing can go wrong. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are betting on steady growth, not an economic boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives implies roughly 2.4% US real GDP…
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility Systematic strategies sit in the 76th percentile and stay overweight. By itself, that’s not a top signal or a warning of an imminent selloff. Positioning can…
Change in Consensus 2026 S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 EPS forecasts for 2026 surged, with upward revisions accelerating after the U.S.–Iran conflict erupted, even as geopolitical and macro risks climbed. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC &…
$100,000 over 30 Years: The Fund vs. The Average Investor U.S. funds returned an annualized 8.2%, but the average investor earned only about 7.0%. Much of the gap came from poor timing: buying after prices…