U.S. Consumer Confidence in Higher Stock Prices vs. S&P 500 Trailing Valuations Confidence in future stock gains is fueling higher valuations, with investors paying up for growth they believe will last. But that conviction could…
S&P 500 Index Returns vs. Drawdowns in Midterm Election Years Midterm years often test Wall Street’s nerve. Since 1930, the S&P 500 has typically fallen around 20% on average at some point, but those pullbacks…
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite among U.S. equity fund managers is waning as optimism over market returns cools from record highs. Political jitters, stretched valuations, and policy uncertainty…
Valuations Across EM Markets The valuation gap in emerging markets is striking: India trades at a premium, whereas China’s pricing feels more in line with its history. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -2.33% YoY in January. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
U.S. Big Tech’s Capital Expenditures Tech titans Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft plan to spend $650 billion this year into AI data centers, chips, and infrastructure, up 60% from last year as the race for AI…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast higher to 2.63% from 2.59% a week earlier, a small gain that keeps the steady-growth story alive. Image: Federal…
Macro Valuation Measure (S&P 500) U.S. stocks look rich compared with what today’s macro backdrop would normally justify. In previous cycles, such lofty valuations at these levels have often paved the way for years of…
Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 Bitcoin has closely tracked the Nasdaq 100 in recent years, mirroring shifts in market sentiment and risk appetite. That link is also relatively visible now, as the speculative mood encounters turbulence.…
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators The mood is bullish for now, and we’re not near the extremes. Market participants aren’t showing signs of fatigue just yet, at least until the next headline hits. Image: Goldman…
Margin Debt as Percentage of Real Disposal Personal Income Margin debt sits at a record share of real disposable income. With incomes stagnating and borrowing surging, investors look vulnerable. Markets appear calm, for now, but…