Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index Semiconductors took a hit last week, but the Greed and Fear Index is still at 78.80, with positioning stretched, professionals heavily loaded up on equities, and retail exposure…
S&P 500 Return During July July has been kind to U.S. stocks, rising for 11 straight years and delivering an average gain of 3.2%. Can the streak continue? Image: Carson Investment Research
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are on pace for 38% earnings growth this year, versus 19% for the rest of the S&P 500. With tech momentum still…
Insider Transactions Ratio Corporate insiders are growing more cautious as the Insider Transactions Ratio slips back into bearish territory, with little appetite to step in and buy. Image: Barron’s
S&P 500 Company Guidance vs. Consensus Growth Expectations Into Earnings Seasons Consensus S&P 500 earnings growth heading into Q2 stands at 26.2%, a record for a pre-reporting period outside recession recoveries, driven in large part…
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors are getting cautious again. AAII sentiment cooled sharply, pushing the bull-bear spread back below zero and keeping the door open for more upside. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Financials Group Positioning Positioning in financials has improved, but it still sits at the 10th percentile, leaving ample room to add risk. With fundamentals holding up, that caution looks misplaced. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 84.69, the NAAIM Exposure Index shows active investment managers remain heavily invested and firmly bullish on U.S. equities. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week…
Revision to Consensus Hyperscaler Year/Year Capex Growth 2027 capex is still a moving target for hyperscalers. They look more likely to overshoot than undershoot on AI spending, which could keep AI-driven inflation stickier for longer.…
S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000 – YTD Change in Price, Earnings, and Valuation The S&P 500’s year-to-date total return has been driven entirely by earnings growth, while the Russell 2000’s advance has come roughly half…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 July has historically treated U.S. equities well, delivering average gains of 0.8% since 1964. If seasonality plays out again, bulls may have room to run through the summer…