Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index climbed to 77.29 after earnings from large-cap stocks, with investors still firmly bullish and showing little sign of worry. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative June and July The S&P 500 fell 0.1% in July. Bulls can call it noise, but bears will see a familiar pattern. Since 1950, when both June and July…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at 1.6. Similar readings have historically been followed by an average 0.4% drop in the S&P 500 over the next month.Image: Goldman Sachs…
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Wall Street is betting on a powerful earnings tailwind: S&P 500 profits are set to jump 31% in 2026 and another 12% in 2027. Small caps could steal the show, with…
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite hasn’t cooled. The Russell 2000 now trades at 25 times forward earnings, ahead of 23 for the Nasdaq 100 and 20 for the S&P 500. It…
Performance – S&P 500 MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 The relative performance of MCG and Tech has once again bounced back from the lower end of its long-term trend…
Aggregate Earnings Surprise – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Philly Semiconductors, Bloomberg AI Value Chain The S&P 500 just posted its strongest earnings season in years, powered by AI-driven profits. When the index beats estimates by…
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Fair Value Model The 10-year U.S. Treasury is yielding about 4.7%, roughly 40 basis points above its fair-value estimate of 4.3%. That spread favors mean-reversion trades over outright directional bets.…
Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is expected to reach $792 billion this year, then rise to $1.048 trillion in 2027 and $1.298 trillion in 2028. At this scale, it’s no longer just a cycle story,…
Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ The AI trade is following the classic Momentum rally pattern, but with volatility at levels rarely seen outside recessions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 S&P 500 seasonality shows August is rarely a sweet spot for stocks, as volatility tends to pick up and returns often lag. Image: Real Investment Advice