S&P 500 Buybacks vs. S&P 500 Composite 12-Month Trailing EPS Corporate buybacks and earnings growth have risen hand in hand. Much of that growth, though, reflects companies lifting their own share prices. With valuations stretched,…
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Purchasing Power Parity Valuation Despite recent softness, the U.S. dollar still trades at a hefty premium on key valuation measures, making it vulnerable to further losses. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets (Midterm Election Years Only) Bull markets don’t offer immunity. U.S. midterm election years tend to bring choppier trading and elevated volatility for the S&P 500 until…
S&P 500 and Liquidity Index Improving liquidity is setting a friendlier tone for U.S. equities, helped by the Fed’s shift in balance sheet policy. The biggest shake-up could come once Trump’s new Fed chief runs…
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. equity valuations are still lofty, with major gauges more than two standard deviations above century-long norms. Cheap is not the word that comes to mind. Image: The…
Foreign Investors Equity Allocation Percentile vs. History In 2025, foreign investors substantially increased their holdings of U.S. equities, reaching record levels despite stretched valuations, a weakening dollar and better returns abroad. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums low in the U.S. and Japan, investors are hardly paid for taking on stock risk instead of safer bonds, making equity investing a tougher call.…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.94%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
FINRA Debit Balance in Securities Margin Accounts Leverage in margin accounts has surged since April 2025, reflecting strong market optimism. The catch is that higher leverage can turn painful fast when volatility spikes, triggering forced…
Share of Global Market Capitalization With only 4% of the world’s people, the United States controls 63% of global equity value, its tech and innovation powerhouses attracting massive foreign capital. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
S&P 500 Earnings & Estimates and Earnings Growth Trend Line S&P 500 earnings have significantly outpaced historical growth trends. If profits start to slip in the coming quarters, richly valued stocks could face a sharp…