Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index is at 73.39, approaching extreme greed. Sentiment is clearly bullish, though not yet stretched to the levels that usually mark major market peaks.…
S&P 500 Return During June June has a reputation for weakness in midterm years, but the last decade tells a different story: it closed higher in 9 out of 10 years, posting a median gain…
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 The S&P 500’s reaction to the Middle East conflict has shifted from one of the weakest after a geopolitical shock to one of the strongest, as investors…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning At 0.2, Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits close to neutral territory. In the past, similar readings have preceded an average 0.8% rise in the S&P 500 over the…
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite shows little sign of cooling. The Nasdaq 100 trades at 27 times forward earnings, with the Russell 2000 at 26 and the S&P 500 at 21.…
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Treasuries The S&P 500 looks stretched against Treasuries, trading over one standard deviation rich on a year-on-year basis and in the 95th percentile of the past 50 years. A return to…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 1.82%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
Average Percentile Rank for U.S. Equity Market Concentration, Valuation, and Magnitude of Rally U.S. equities are flashing familiar signs: rich valuations, heavy concentration, and outsized recent returns. This is less a signal that a crash…
S&P 500 Trend Channel The S&P 500 caught up to the bottom of the trend channel in place since October 2022. If buyers defend this level, the index could keep grinding higher along that support.…
U.S. Share Buyback Authorization Announcements Buybacks are fueling the rally on Wall Street, with U.S. authorizations exceeding a record $860 billion since the start of the year and reinforcing a strong floor for equities. Image:…
The IPO Fade – % Change from Day-One Peak by Cohort Buying into the SpaceX IPO is a bet on hype as much as fundamentals, and history points to a volatile debut. Early investors should…