U.S. Corporate Profits as % of Real GDP U.S. corporate profits are running far ahead of real economy growth, reaching the widest gap on record. History shows that such divergences rarely last once markets face…
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth The median S&P 500 company is expected to post 7% yoy EPS growth in Q4 2025, pointing to firmer earnings momentum and a brighter short‑term outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History The market’s appetite for risk shows little sign of cooling, as several S&P 500 sectors continue to command valuations well above historical averages. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns January usually begins on a strong note for U.S. stocks, but history shows the momentum often fades in the second half of the month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total What was once a mirror of the market has become a magnifying glass. Ten mega-caps now make up over…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast slightly higher to 2.61% from 2.17% a week earlier, reinforcing the story of a steady, moderate expansion. Image: Federal…
Hyperscaler Quarterly Capex Growth Hyperscalers may soon hit the brakes on capital spending, potentially hurting valuations. But in doing so, they risk ceding ground in the AI race, where fierce competition and tight supply chains…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.6% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Magnificent Seven Stocks – Projected Gain or Decline Over the Next 12 Months Analysts expect the Magnificent 7 to remain the main engine of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026, with forecasts calling for solid…
U.S. Payrolls and Recessions U.S. payroll growth rarely dips this low without a recession. It slowed sharply in late 2025, but analysts expect a rebound this year as productivity gains, Fed rate cuts, and fiscal…
Deviation of Earnings Above-Below Long Term Growth Trend vs. Valuations Each time earnings detach from their long-term trend, markets tend to catch up the hard way. The widening gap now signals risk building where few…