S&P 500 CAPE Valuations and 10 Year Annualized Real Return With the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio near rare highs, the market looks priced for perfection. History says that kind of setup often leads to…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 41 on the Fear & Greed Index, sentiment sits near neutral territory, showing neither panic nor euphoria and still leaving room for U.S. stocks to climb higher…
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. equity valuations remain stretched, with most valuation metrics sitting more than two standard deviations above history. Cheap may be dead, but momentum can keep this market running…
S&P 500 – Net Debit Balances in NYSE Margin Accountsge The ongoing investor deleveraging wave since June is a near-term headwind for U.S. equities, especially in technology and high-beta momentum stocks. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows…
AAII Sentiment Survey Risk appetite has snapped back. U.S. retail investors are leaning bullish again, lifting the bull–bear spread to its strongest reading since late January. Even so, signs of euphoria are still hard to…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy to stay on steady footing, projecting 2.1% growth in both 2026 and 2027, in line with consensus, helped by a labor market that remains resilient.…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 3.15% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The NAAIM Exposure Index stands at 95.64, signaling that active managers are strongly bullish on U.S. equities. High bullishness doesn’t automatically mean an imminent decline, but it increases the…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures still places the S&P 500 in neutral territory, not yet deeply overbought or oversold, so the current uptrend remains intact for now. Image: MarketDesk Research
10-Year Annualized Performance vs. The Market of The Best Performing U.S. Sector Tech outperformance has been unusually strong and unusually long, marking one of the most concentrated, longest-running spells of sector leadership in recent market…
S&P 500 Annual vs. Intra-Year Returns History shows the S&P 500 usually takes a 5%–10% hit sometime during the year. After March’s double-digit drop, the next leg down could be shallower. Back-to-back big hits are…