S&P 500 Monthly Performance in Midterm Election Years Since 1950, October has been the best month for midterm years, averaging a 3% gain and finishing higher 74% of the time. Is it time to be…

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 413K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…

Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) U.S. and global stocks still look expensive, but earnings are growing fast enough to support those valuations. As long as profits keep beating expectations, the premium is…

Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E Trading at 15 times forward earnings versus 19 for the benchmark, the S&P 500 equal-weight index still isn’t a bargain, but the discount makes it look more attractive. Image:…

Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE Bond traders are more defensive on U.S. rates, while equity investors remain confident that stocks will stay relatively calm. That growing disconnect is not necessarily a bearish signal, but…

S&P 500 Semiconductor Gross Margins The S&P 500’s leading AI semiconductor companies have enjoyed a powerful expansion in gross margins during the last few years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q4 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast to 2.59% from 2.60%, a light revision that leaves the broader growth trajectory untouched. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of…

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.76%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…

Market-Implied Long-Term S&P 500 Growth Expectations The market-implied long-term growth expectation for the S&P 500 is currently +10%, above the historical average but nothing like the dot-com bubble excess. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Estimated Contribution of Hyperscaler Capex to S&P 500 EPS Growth The earnings tailwind from AI capex is expected to fade over the coming years, even as spending keeps climbing. With capex growth slowing and depreciation…

S&P 500 and Predecessors, Calendar-Year Price Returns Since 1928 Since 1928, the S&P 500 and its predecessors have finished the year up in 73% of calendar years. Risk is always there, but staying structurally bearish…