Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 68.73. Investor positioning has pulled back from extreme greed, but speculative positioning remains elevated. That leaves markets more vulnerable to a…
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P…
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite is running high. The Nasdaq 100 now trades at 27 times forward earnings, the Russell 2000 at 26, and the S&P 500 at 21. The market…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning At 0.8, Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits below stretched territory. Historically, readings at this level have been followed by an average 1.1% gain in the S&P 500 over…
U.S. Risk Sentiment Indicator U.S. equities have surged, but risk sentiment stays neutral, leaving room for the rally to run as many investors stay on the sidelines. Image: TS Lombard
GS Risk Appetite Indicator and U.S. Equity Momemtum 1-Year Z-Score When risk appetite and momentum run too hot, like today, future equity returns typically fade under the weight of easy optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
S&P 500 Trend Channel The S&P 500 has clawed its way back to the lower edge of the uptrend in place since October 2022. If buyers hold the line here, the index could start grinding…
Cumulative YTD Change in Consensus 2027 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure and energy are carrying the bulk of S&P 500 EPS revisions, while the rest of the market is barely moving. Strip those sectors out and…
Equity Positioning At the 70th percentile, equity positioning is modestly overweight, with positioning far more stretched in large caps and most notably in Tech. The big tech trade is getting crowded. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 On the back of strong EPS expectations, Goldman Sachs maintains its bullish outlook, calling for a 12% climb to 7,600 in the S&P 500 this year, with a few…
2026 S&P 500 EPS Revisions Analysts typically cut S&P 500 EPS forecasts as the fiscal year unfolds. This year is different. Estimates are moving higher, lifted by AI enthusiasm and reinforced by confident guidance. The…