S&P 500 Price Return in the 3 Months Before Each Midterm Election vs. the 6 and 12 Months After Bulls have a reason to smile: the post-midterm rally has been remarkably reliable. Since 1950, the…
S&P 500 Various Declines per Year The S&P 500 is now facing its second pullback of at least 5% this year. Even after yesterday’s sharp selloff, the decline remains relatively modest. What matters is how…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 21, fear is gripping the market. Such deep pessimism can leave room for a bounce, if sentiment improves. Image: Cable News…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment Caution is creeping in, but active managers remain heavily invested in U.S. stocks, with the NAAIM Exposure Index at 78.62. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the…
Hyperscaler Capex Estimates by Year Are investors underestimating the AI capex cycle? This isn’t a temporary surge. It is a structural multiyear sprint for the silicon, power, and capacity required to scale. Image: BCA Research
Large Cap Utilities Positioning The rally since late September hasn’t shifted the mood much: Utilities positioning sits at the second percentile, leaving room for investors to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment – Tech Risk Appetite Indicator Risk appetite for Tech has slumped to near Liberation Day levels. But sentiment can shift quickly, and it may take little to spark a recovery. Image: TS Lombard
Hyperscaler Investement as Share of U.S. GDP and Estimated Wealth Effect A pullback in AI stocks could hit household wealth and weigh on spending. Positive wealth effects have added 0.4 percentage point to U.S. GDP…
S&P 500 Year/Year Earnings Growth Strip out mega-cap tech’s “other income,” and S&P 500 earnings growth is tracking at 33% year over year in Q3 2026. The forecast drops to 18% in 2027, but that’s…
Valuations – NTM P/E: MCG & Tech vs. Rest of S&P 500 Tech valuations look nothing like the dot-com excesses. But “not a dot-com bubble” doesn’t mean “cheap” or “low risk.” Today’s multiples still rely…
Average S&P 500 Total Return Following Midterm Election Day Since 1874, U.S. stocks have averaged a 6% gain in the three months after a midterm election and a 14% gain in the year after. Once…