S&P 500 Performance from the October 26 Close to December 31, by Market Regime In the nine midterm years since 1951 when the S&P 500 was up year to date on October 26, it rose…
S&P 500 Average Performance per Day The calendar favors the bulls: October 28 has historically been the S&P 500’s best day of the year. Will the Fed spoil the party today? Image: Carson Investment Research
Ownership of the U.S. Equity Market U.S. households now own 42% of the U.S. equity market. But that ownership is heavily concentrated, with nearly 90% in the hands of the wealthiest 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Seasonality – Average Path of the S&P 500 Through a Year Since 1928, With Midterm and Non-Midterm Years Averages mask wide dispersion, but if history is any guide, the S&P 500 is entering into a…
CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs are still keeping their distance from rates risk. Bond allocations sit at the 7th percentile, leaving fixed income firmly out of favor. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MCG & Tech vs. Rest of S&P 500 MCG & Tech has fallen over the past two weeks while the rest of the S&P 500 pushed higher. The divergence points to sector rotation rather than…
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have continued to trim equity exposure, but positioning remains relatively high at the 62nd percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market puts the odds of a U.S. recession over the next year at just 13%. Consensus is closer to 20%, above the historical average. Is…
Forecasts for S&P 500 Earnings and Returns Goldman Sachs sees the S&P 500 climbing to 8,700 over the next 12 months, a 14% gain. Earnings growth, not multiple expansion, is expected to drive the advance.…
Trailing 4-Quarter Net Equity Demand Household buying has stayed strong, more than offsetting weaker corporate demand for U.S. equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score The S&P 500’s technical reading eased to 58.32. The market can rally from here, but a deeper correction could bring further losses. For now, caution makes sense until market…