Average Annual Real Return over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE Valuation High starting CAPE valuations have often preceded disappointing returns for U.S. stocks, creating a particularly risky backdrop for investors just entering retirement.…
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative Q1 and Then a >10% Q2 If history is any guide, the rally may have more room to run. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished higher in every…
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High When markets hit record highs, many investors step back. That caution has often come at a cost: buying…
Performance – MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 The rotation into Tech has been powerful, but the rally may still have fuel left. Continued earnings strength in AI infrastructure, cloud…
CTAs Exposure to Bonds With bond allocation at the fourth percentile, CTAs are showing almost no appetite for rates risk. Fixed income has fallen firmly out of favor. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Hyperscaler Cloud Revenue Cloud revenue growth at the hyperscalers hit 48% in Q2. Goldman Sachs equity analysts forecast 55% in Q3. It’s an encouraging sign, but not proof that the AI spending boom will pay…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q4 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast down to 2.55% from 2.59%, a minor revision that leaves the growth outlook intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still looks underpriced, while Industrials, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples leave less room for error. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NASDAQ 100 vs. Tech Capex The Nasdaq 100 turned lower in 2000, nine months before tech investment as a share of U.S. GDP peaked. Will this time be different? Image: BCA Research
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The S&P 500 is at record highs, but market breadth has plunged. With gains concentrated in a handful of leaders, the rally…
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 75.55, the S&P 500 remains technically overbought. Momentum is still bullish and key supports are intact, but the rally is unlikely to be a smooth ride. Image: Real…