Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At 56.28, the Greed and Fear Index remains in neutral territory, far from panic or euphoria. If markets hold steady through earnings season, investors could get a window…
S&P 500 – Length of Bull Markets and When They Started Born in October 2022, this bull market is now four years old. Bulls are smiling: over the past 50 years, every bull market to…
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning eased to the 56th percentile, a modest overweight. As the trade is far from crowded, investors still have room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator has slipped to -1.3. Historically, similar readings have been followed by an average 2.0% gain for the S&P 500 over the next month. Image:…
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTA positioning has pulled back materially, but remains elevated across most major indexes. The S&P 500 sits at the 87th percentile and the Nasdaq-100 at the 69th percentile. The Russell 2000…
S&P 500 vs. Its Seasonal Pattern The equal-weighted S&P 500 has followed the seasonal script closely, rebounding from its lows almost in step with the S&P 500’s typical pattern. Seasonality is now a tailwind for…
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History U.S. stocks are expensive, but investors are buying anyway: the Nasdaq 100 trades at 23 times forward earnings, the Russell 2000 at 22 times and the S&P 500…
Performance – MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 After rebounding from the bottom of its long-term trend channel, the relative performance of MCG & Tech has approached levels that have…
AAII Sentiment Survey The S&P 500 is setting records, but U.S. retail investors remain far from bullish. The AAII bull-bear spread has barely moved into positive territory, leaving sentiment, and potentially stocks, room to climb.…
MCG & Tech vs. The Rest Earnings Growth Tech earnings are expected to surge in the third quarter, but even that may not be enough to lift the sector in the near term. Earnings expectations…
Investor Psychology Cycle Panic can push markets too far, too fast, creating opportunities for contrarians willing to buy when fear peaks. Euphoria is the other side of the trade, and often signals that it’s time…