Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets (Points) Bear markets don’t just trim gains. They can erase most of the inflation-adjusted upside from an entire bull run. Which is why a late-cycle drop is never just noise.…
Percent of S&P 500 Stocks with Dividends > 10-Year Treasury Yield The income trade has reversed. In July 2016, 63.4% of S&P 500 stocks yielded more than the 10-year U.S. Treasury. Today, fewer than 4.5%…
Discretionary Positioning vs. Earning Growth Discretionary positioning is lagging earnings growth, which means the rally isn’t done yet. If revisions stay supportive and macro risks stay in check, expect more cash to move into equities.…
S&P 500 Price Rebased to Sept 1 = 100 of Each Midterm Years Midterm years tend to weigh on stocks, and September deserves extra care. Since WWII, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of…
Volatility – VIX Index Average Summer calm often gives way to autumn volatility. Are markets braced for a rougher ride ahead? Image: Bloomberg
AAII Asset Allocation U.S. retail investors turned more optimistic into August, lifting their stock allocation to a year-to-date high of 71.1%. For this crowd, it’s a vote of confidence in equities. Image: Daily Chartbook
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q3 2026 GDP nowcast to 2.22% from 2.27%, a minor adjustment that keeps the U.S. growth story on track. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of…
S&P 500 Median Monthly Realized Volatility – Midterm Election Years vs. All Years Midterm years usually bring more turbulence to the S&P 500, particularly in October, while the market waits to see who ends up…
Small Cap Equity Positioning Small caps aren’t getting much love right now. Positioning is only at the 48th percentile, far from crowded territory and leaving plenty of room to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The S&P 500 52-week market breadth is improving, but participation remains narrow. For bulls, that’s constructive: durable uptrends typically demand wider participation.…
S&P 500 Valuation – The Shiller CAPE Since 1881 The S&P 500’s CAPE ratio has climbed to levels seen only in the market’s priciest episodes, when the next decade typically delivered negative real returns. History…