S&P 500 Earnings vs. Their Long-Term Trend Consensus forward earnings for the S&P 500 are now about 50% above their long-term growth trend. That does not mean the market has reached an immediate top, but…

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index fell 0.5% in August. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…

Discretionary Positioning vs. Earning Growth Discretionary investors are still positioned cautiously relative to the strength of earnings growth. With revisions still supportive and macro risks contained, more cash could move into stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums In the U.S. and Japan, the equity risk premium has been squeezed so hard that stocks barely compensate investors for taking on extra risk versus bonds. That makes equities…

MSCI World Sector/Style Valuations Valuations are rich across sectors and styles, leaving investors with almost no cushion. A slight turn in mood could push prices lower, with few supports below. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

S&P 500 2027 EPS Growth Based on Semiconductor Gross Margin Scenarios With semiconductors now an outsized, high-margin engine for the S&P 500, 2027 earnings growth is highly sensitive to how chip margins evolve. Image: Goldman…

5-Year Rolling Return of U.S. 10-Year Bonds Five-year rolling returns on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are now among the worst in a century, both before and after inflation. Much of the damage was done in the…

S&P 500 Real Trailing 4Q EPS Relative to 30-Year Trend S&P 500 earnings are running well above a 30-year trend. That’s good news for profits, but a warning for valuations if the boom starts to…

U.S. Corporate Profits as % of GDP U.S. corporate profits as a share of GDP are at record highs, which on their own don’t signal an imminent recession. The question is not whether margins are…

EUR/USD vs. Average of 5-Year Real & Nominal Rate Differential U.S–euro area rate differentials remain a key headwind for EUR/USD, with the narrative increasingly about Fed hawkishness and the prospect of wider spreads ahead. Image:…

S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 66.87, the S&P 500 remains slightly overbought. Bulls haven’t lost control and the uptrend is fine, but don’t expect a straight line higher from here. Think choppy, not…