Historical Length of Recoveries and Subsequent Market Declines Every U.S. expansion since 1871 has hit a wall, and markets have stumbled hard each time. The current bull run, born out of the March 2020 lows,…
Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events There’s never a shortage of headlines telling you why now is the worst time to invest. But time and again, U.S. stocks have shrugged off turmoil, proving…
S&P 500 Annualized 10-Year Total Return Forecasts Goldman Sachs is calling for 6.5% annualized gains in the S&P 500 over the next ten years — not bad, but hardly without risk, given stretched valuations and…
Market Capitalization of the Largest Stock Relative to the 75th Percentile Stock U.S. stocks are more top-heavy than at any point in nearly a century, with mega-cap tech driving the charge. The dominance is juicing…
Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 30-Day Correlation Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has surged to multi-year highs, but as macro conditions shift and the crypto market matures, its link to traditional equities could start to loosen. Image:…
Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) Led by tech and AI, Wall Street’s rally still has momentum—but soaring valuations and bubble fears mean the market can’t afford a misstep. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
S&P 500 vs. Gold and S&P 500 vs. Bonds (Total Return) U.S. stocks look pricey next to bonds—but measured against gold, it’s not mania, it’s money insurance. Investors are hedging debasement and inflation, not chasing…
200-Day Correlation Between S&P 500 and Gold Spot Gold’s old reputation as a crisis hedge is looking dated. The metal is increasingly trading like a risk asset, tracking U.S. equities as a declining dollar and…
Rolling 90-Day Correlation Between the S&P 500 and U.S. IG Credit Spreads Credit and equities are back in sync: the 90‑day correlation between U.S. IG credit spreads and the S&P 500 has spiked, a sign…
10-Year Forward Annualized Total Returns in Local Currency Despite historically high valuations that could cap gains, Goldman Sachs forecasts robust global equity returns, led by Emerging Markets and Asia, which are expected to deliver the…
S&P 500 and Liquidity Liquidity remains abundant. But once conditioned to buy every dip, investors since 2022 have stopped watching liquidity and started trading Fed whispers—betting more on signals than on fundamentals. Image: Real Investment…