Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Capex estimates keep surprising to the upside as earnings season rolls on. Hyperscaler spending is now on track to hit over $1 trillion in 2027. That looks less like a cycle…
Performance – S&P 500 MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 After bouncing off the bottom of its long-term trend channel, the MCG and Tech relative performance ratio has rallied back…
S&P 500 – Length of Bull Markets and When They Started This bull market, born in October 2022, is now 3.8 years old. History shows that once a bull reaches the three-year mark, it tends…
Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is now expected to reach $799 billion this year, then rise to $1.068 trillion in 2027 and $1.301 trillion in 2028. This is starting to look less like a cycle…
S&P 500 Performance Since 2025 After spending two months stuck in a narrow range, the S&P 500 broke decisively higher during earnings season. Investors had been underpositioned for the strength of earnings and were now…
Realized and Consensus Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Hyperscaler free cash flow is expected to remain negative through 2027 as AI spending accelerates, before recovering in 2028. For now, that cash burn is the price of…
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth S&P 500 earnings growth is set to accelerate from 25% in Q1 to 34% in Q2, a pace rarely seen outside the early stages of an economic recovery. Image: Deutsche…
S&P 500 Performance After ≥ 12% Over the First 150 Trading Days of the Year The S&P 500 has gained 12% or more in its first 150 trading days on 22 occasions since 1950. While…
S&P 500 Trend Channel The sharp rally has brought the S&P 500 back to the bottom of its nearly four-year uptrend channel. If buyers defend the level, the rally could have further room to run.…
Forward S&P 500 Returns After Prior Breakouts to New Highs Beat the Average Day Over the past ten years, when the S&P 500 has broken to a new high after at least two months without…
S&P 500 Index Max Pullback per Calendar Year March’s 9% pullback may already be the year’s deepest. If so, the market has less room for another major selloff. Back-to-back drawdowns of that size are rare,…