MCG & Tech vs. The Rest Earnings Growth
MCG & Tech vs. The Rest Earnings Growth Earnings growth for MCG and Tech is expected to keep accelerating from already lofty levels, while profits for the rest of the S&P 500 are projected to…
MSCI Equity Indexes, Total Return in US$
MSCI Equity Indexes, Total Return in US$ Since Trump’s inauguration, U.S. equities have lagged their global peers, with Europe ahead by 12%, Japan by 17%, and emerging markets by 27%. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is climbing into the danger zone that makes investors uneasy, edging deeper into levels last seen at major market tops. The bulls still run the…
Sector Fund Flows
Sector Fund Flows Despite the selloff, semiconductors have seen heavy inflows over the past few weeks. That looks more like dip buying than broad risk aversion. Will it last? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MSCI ACWI 12-Month Forward EPS
MSCI ACWI 12-Month Forward EPS With global stocks priced for perfection and ACWI earnings expectations stretched, it looks prudent to take some risk off the table. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 – Net Debit Balances in NYSE Margin Accounts
S&P 500 – Net Debit Balances in NYSE Margin Accountsge The ongoing investor deleveraging wave since June is a near-term headwind for U.S. equities, especially in technology and high-beta momentum stocks. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows…
10-Year Annualized Performance vs. The Market of The Best Performing U.S. Sector
10-Year Annualized Performance vs. The Market of The Best Performing U.S. Sector Tech outperformance has been unusually strong and unusually long, marking one of the most concentrated, longest-running spells of sector leadership in recent market…
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Returns
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still priced for perfection, the next five years could bring slimmer returns. These are outstanding businesses, but valuation still matters. Even the best names…
S&P 500 Real Revenue per Employee
S&P 500 Real Revenue per Employee AI is already lifting productivity in some tasks. Over time, that could mean more sales per employee. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Rolling 20-Week Correlations of the S&P 500 to the Usual Havens
Rolling 20-Week Correlations of the S&P 500 to the Usual Havens During this decade’s market shocks, traditional havens have too often failed to hedge, frustrating investors who assumed they would shield portfolios. The takeaway: diversification…
U.S. Broad Money (M2)
U.S. Broad Money (M2) After shrinking in 2022 and 2023, U.S. M2 growth has continued to expand. That’s good news for nominal spending and asset prices, but it also brings the familiar inflation question back…