GS Risk Appetite Indicator and U.S. Equity Momemtum 1-Year Z-Score When risk appetite and momentum run too hot, like today, future equity returns typically fade under the weight of easy optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Cumulative YTD Change in Consensus 2027 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure and energy are carrying the bulk of S&P 500 EPS revisions, while the rest of the market is barely moving. Strip those sectors out and…
2026 S&P 500 EPS Revisions Analysts typically cut S&P 500 EPS forecasts as the fiscal year unfolds. This year is different. Estimates are moving higher, lifted by AI enthusiasm and reinforced by confident guidance. The…
Retail Share of Trading Volumes in Select U.S. Equity Index ETF Since 2021 Retail traders are piling into leveraged U.S. equity index ETFs, hardly a surprise given their long-standing appetite for leverage. The trade looks…
Cumulative Change in Consensus 2026 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure stocks have seen 2026 earnings estimates jump 55% since December 2024, versus just 7% for the broader S&P 500. Strip them out and earnings fall 1%.…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums squeezed in the U.S. and Japan, stocks are offering little extra return over bonds, making the trade harder to justify and raising the odds of…
Ownership of the U.S. Equity Market U.S. households hold 40% of the U.S. equity market. That sounds like broad ownership. In reality, nearly 90% of that stake is held by the wealthiest 10%. Image: Goldman…
Nasdaq 100 Index Contribution in Years of +10-25% When the Nasdaq‑100 rises +10-25% in a year, the gains are usually driven by just three stocks. That is the nature of cap‑weighted indices. Narrow breadth isn’t…
Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Hyperscaler capex is on track to reach $914 billion by 2028. At that scale, this no longer looks like a typical tech cycle. It starts to resemble a structural shift that…
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI by about three months, offering an early read on where inflation is heading.…
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change With the ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 earnings growth moving hand in hand, either ISM climbs into the high 50s as the cycle…