Bitcoin and Software Bitcoin has largely tracked software stocks in recent years. The reset earlier this year has turned into a rebound, and both have cleared near-term resistance to establish short-term uptrends.. Image: Topdown Charts
Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets (Points) Bear markets don’t just trim gains. They can erase most of the inflation-adjusted upside from an entire bull run. Which is why a late-cycle drop is never just noise.…
Percent of S&P 500 Stocks with Dividends > 10-Year Treasury Yield The income trade has reversed. In July 2016, 63.4% of S&P 500 stocks yielded more than the 10-year U.S. Treasury. Today, fewer than 4.5%…
S&P 500 Price Rebased to Sept 1 = 100 of Each Midterm Years Midterm years tend to weigh on stocks, and September deserves extra care. Since WWII, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of…
Volatility – VIX Index Average Summer calm often gives way to autumn volatility. Are markets braced for a rougher ride ahead? Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Median Monthly Realized Volatility – Midterm Election Years vs. All Years Midterm years usually bring more turbulence to the S&P 500, particularly in October, while the market waits to see who ends up…
S&P 500 Valuation – The Shiller CAPE Since 1881 The S&P 500’s CAPE ratio has climbed to levels seen only in the market’s priciest episodes, when the next decade typically delivered negative real returns. History…
S&P 500 – 10 Best September Returns Ever September is historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, but midterm election years have delivered some of the strongest Septembers on record. All four of the best…
S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity is still in negative territory, and that’s bad news for U.S. stocks over the next three to six months. As the liquidity backdrop fades,…
Leveraged Fund Positions in NASDAQ-100 Futures Bears are piling into Nasdaq‑100 futures. Short positions have surged 35% since mid‑June and are now near record levels, setting up a sharp squeeze if momentum turns. Image: Goldman…
Cumulative Flows to Cryptocurrency Funds Cumulative flows into cryptocurrency funds have flipped positive for the first time since May 2026, driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutions are stepping back in, and risk…