Duration and Magnitude of Major Nonrecessionary S&P 500 Index Declines According to Morgan Stanley, the current bear market rally in U.S. equities remains within historical norms. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Oil – Brent Fair-Value Model J.P. Morgan expects Brent oil prices to exit the year at $86/bbl. Image: J.P. Morgan
Returns – Dow Jones Eight Day Win Streaks In bull markets, it is common for the Dow Jones to have winning streaks lasting eight days. Image: Carson Investment Research
FMS Investors and Profit Expectations FMS global profit expectations are now more optimistic than they have been since February 2022. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
S&P 500 Performance 1-Year After Midterm Elections Historically, the S&P 500 Index has been higher a year later every time after midterm elections in November. Image: Carson Investment Research
GAAP Earnings vs. PPI to CPI Spread The PPI to CPI spread suggests that there could be ongoing pressure on earnings. Image: Real Investment Advice
ISM Manufacturing New Orders vs. U.S. 12-Month Trailing EPS Growth ISM Manufacturing New Orders tend to lead U.S. 12-month trailing EPS growth by 3 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Revision to Consensus S&P 500 3Q EPS 2Q EPS fell by just 2% over the last 3 months, compared to the usual 4%. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. EBIT Margin vs. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index Profit margins are rarely sustained by falling inflation. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Valuation – S&P 500 P/E, S&P Equity Risk Premium and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Significant multiple expansion in the absence of a corresponding increase in earnings growth can generally be a warning sign that U.S.…
Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Historically, U.S. stocks have shown an average increase of 32.3% a year after a midterm year low. Image:…