Full-Year Real GDP Growth Trade barriers, shifting immigration policies, and broader uncertainty are expected to keep the U.S. economy from reaching its potential this year, despite ongoing technological investments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Market Cap vs. Equal Weighted Returns Since the March–April correction, most of the gains have come from the largest stocks, which is clear from the difference between equal-weighted and market-cap-weighted S&P 500 indexes.…
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Despite stretched valuations by historical standards, the S&P 500 is trading near fair value, and earnings growth is set to underpin further upside as the economy gains momentum…
Fed Fund Rate Forecasts Nomura projects two further rate cuts this year, followed by three more in March, June, and September of next year, bringing the terminal rate to 2.875%. Image: Nomura
Equity Sector Flows Money keeps flowing into industrials and financials, while energy and health care still see pronounced outflows. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII bull-bear spread points to a balanced mood among U.S. retail investors who expect stock prices to decline in the near term—a condition that could set the…
Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies ranking in the 92nd percentile continue to show a strong bullish bias in equities, driven by robust technical momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index Returns in September Late September is often a banana-peel moment for U.S. stocks, when markets have a tendency to slip. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials) Over the past 35 years, the S&P 500’s profit margin has climbed from 5% to 12% and has held at high levels in recent years, with…
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) The recent decline in U.S. 10-year real yields points to growing investor caution, with labor market softening fueling bets on more Fed easing ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 TTM EPS Growth Strong EPS growth, combined with Fed rate cuts, often fuels equities by reducing funding costs, boosting investment and sustaining earnings momentum—the classic drivers of bull markets.…