Performance – S&P 500 vs. MSCI ACWI vs. Nasdaq 100 The Fed cutting interest rates while stocks are at record highs and the economy is still growing creates a bullish setup for equities, boosting investor…
S&P 500 Market Cap / S&P 500 Equal Weight Index The current performance gap—where the market-cap-weighted index outperforms the equal-weight index—does not necessarily signal an imminent bear market, but it does warrant some caution for…
Gold ETF Holdings and COMEX Open Interest The confluence of rising gold ETF holdings, speculative flows, central bank buying, and macroeconomic factors has created strong bullish momentum for gold, which is likely to persist through…
Fed Funds Rate By the end of 2026, Goldman Sachs anticipates four 25-basis-point cuts and expects the Fed to loosen monetary policy more than markets foresee, driven by worries about weaker employment growth and inflation…
Bloomberg’s Global 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income Portfolio Reaching a new all-time high, the global 60/40 portfolio has demonstrated renewed strength and remains a cornerstone strategy for long-term investors who prioritize diversification, balance, and moderate risk tolerance.…
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In August, U.S. building permits declined to 1.312 million, below expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions.…
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield vs. Fed Funds The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is below the fed funds rate, signals that monetary policy is restrictive. It also implies the Fed is about 80 basis…
Annual S&P 500 Net Buyback Payout Ratio Over the past decade, the buyback payout ratio in the S&P 500 has remained high and relatively steady, with buybacks serving as a primary way of delivering value…
Breadth Thrusts and S&P 500 The ongoing Breadth Thrust Regime offers a powerful bullish signal, indicating favorable conditions for U.S. equities until at least May 2026, particularly with the S&P 500 reaching new highs. Image:…
S&P 500 and Fed Funds Target Rate When the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession, U.S. stocks typically perform well, benefiting from easier borrowing conditions, stronger earnings prospects, and shifts in investor risk preferences.…
Gold Net Long Managed Money on COMEX Rising speculative positioning in gold signals increased bullishness but also raises the risk of a short-term pullback, as prices often correct after speculative positions become excessively extended. Image:…