Global Stocks – MSCI ACWI Index Global equities currently show complacency, with prices surging despite a worsening earnings outlook—fueled more by speculative momentum and FOMO than by broad fundamental strength. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Profit Margin – Operating Earnings/Sales Structural changes in the market—such as the rise of high-margin sectors like technology, economies of scale, and favorable financial conditions for large-cap firms—have driven elevated profit margins in…
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Level Expectations U.S. equities face challenges as high valuations heighten the need for strong earnings and guidance. Disappointing results may pressure stock prices, risking recent gains unless corporate earnings justify these…
Materials Group Positioning Positioning in materials stocks is low at the 21st percentile, reflecting restrained confidence or caution in the sector. Image: Deutsche Bank
Stock Buybacks vs. S&P 500 With corporate buybacks projected to exceed $1 trillion by the end of 2025, equity markets are likely to receive crucial support, reflecting robust corporate confidence amid market volatility. Image: Real…
Gold Seasonality Gold benefits from strong seasonal and technical momentum, supported by central bank demand, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks, positioning it for a likely significant price breakout in the coming months. Image: Renaissance Macro…
Equity Positioning Across Sectors The utilities sector continues to show robust positioning, maintaining its appeal as a defensive investment with reliable dividend yields and stable revenue streams. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Two-Year Rolling Change in the Fed Funds Rate Current rate cut expectations, as priced in by fed funds futures, are consistent with a recession scenario. However, market risk indicators and recent Fed communications suggest this…
S&P 500/MSCI World and U.S. Dollar Trade-Weighted Index The renewed relative strength and attractiveness of U.S. assets amid global uncertainty and monetary policy differentials have played a central role in driving the U.S. dollar’s recent…
S&P 500 Performance After 60 Days Above the 20-Day Moving Average The S&P 500, after closing above its 20-day moving average for 60 straight days, has historically maintained its upward momentum, with median 12-month gains…
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Yield Gap With the S&P 500 equity risk premium at historically low levels, the current investment landscape presents significant challenges for equity investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research