Russell 2000 Net Futures Contracts Asset managers and leveraged funds hold large net short positions in Russell 2000 futures despite recent small-cap gains, creating conditions for potential short covering that could trigger further upward momentum…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In August, U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.00% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the…
Nasdaq 100 Futures Positioning Despite recent profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain heavily net long in Nasdaq 100 futures, suggesting continued confidence in technology and growth stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Fed Funds Rate Scenario Analysis In its baseline scenario, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates from 4.3% to 3.1% by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Interest Rate Cuts Resume When the Fed delivered just one or two rate cuts after pausing—seen in four different cycles—the U.S. economy was typically strong, with cyclical sectors such as…
S&P 500 Performance After 30% Rallies in Five Months A rally of over 30% in just five months is an exceptionally rare occurrence for the S&P 500, having happened only five times since 1950. In…
U.S. Sectors With Rising EPS Rising EPS across almost all major U.S. sectors is a significant driver of equity market strength and investor confidence, as it signals strong corporate profitability and growth potential. Image: TS…
S&P 500 Ratio to Its 200-DMA and AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread Historically, very low investor sentiment has not only signaled caution but also suggested further upside in U.S. equities, offering opportunities for…
U.S. Money Market Fund Assets vs. Federal Funds Effective Rate U.S. money market funds typically experience asset inflows during rate hikes but see outflows approximately 12 months after the Fed initiates rate cuts. Image: Real…
U.S. and Non-U.S. Share Announced Buybacks by Year JPMorgan strategists expect further strong growth in buyback volumes, noting that the first eight months of 2025 have already matched last year’s total, providing ongoing support for…
Gold Adjusted for Inflation Gold has just surpassed its inflation-adjusted record high from 1980, marking an important milestone as both a hedge against inflation and a gauge of currency weakness. Image: Bloomberg