Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events often rattle markets, but history shows U.S. stocks usually bounce back and push higher as investors look beyond the turmoil, showing that patience remains…
Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year.…
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are enjoying an early win, with 57% topping their benchmarks so far this year, well above the average of 37%. But if history is…
Relative Equity Market Performance – USA vs. Rest of the World U.S. equities have lagged global peers recently, posting their steepest relative underperformance in 15 years. The leadership baton has passed to cheaper, more cyclical…
U.S. Equities – Net Portfolio Equity Flows Investors can’t seem to get enough of U.S. stocks. Net inflows in 2025 topped an amount equal to about 2% of GDP, an intensity the market hasn’t seen…
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession.…
Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors are punishing U.S. sectors most exposed to AI‑driven automation, betting that vulnerable business models will struggle to keep pace, despite steady fundamentals. Automation’s shockwaves are reshaping entire sectors. Image:…
Congressional Budget Office Forecast of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The Congressional Budget Office sees the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edging higher over the next few years as swelling federal debt puts upward pressure on borrowing…
S&P 500 Four Month Range The S&P 500 has spent four months drifting in a tight range, the kind of calm that rarely lasts. Which way it breaks is anyone’s guess, but as traders like…
Estimated Wealth Effects on Annualized Real PCE Growth Should stocks stumble, the positive wealth effect supporting consumption may turn into a headwind during the second half of 2026. After all, consumer sentiment is definitely tied…
Share of Russell 3000 Firms Discussing Layoffs During Quarterly Earnings Calls You won’t hear much about layoffs on earnings calls these days, a hint that management still sees blue skies for growth. Talk of job…