Median S&P 500 Performance After Fed Cuts Rates The S&P 500 has typically rallied about 50% in the two years after the Fed begins cutting rates. But when those cuts hit during recessions, those gains…

Median U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cuts Cycles Fed rate cuts usually pull short-term yields lower, but long Treasury bonds don’t always fall in line. Inflation expectations, shifting bets on future policy,…

S&P 500 Valuations vs. 6-Month Forward Returns Valuations can help frame long-term return expectations, but they rarely say much about what markets will do in the short run. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global Leading Indicator Leading indicators are turning higher, signaling a growing chance of a global cyclical upswing into the first half of 2026. Image: Bloomberg

Returns for S&P 500 by Sector Since the Launch of ChatGPT on November 30th 2022 The communication services and IT sectors have far outpaced the S&P 500 since ChatGPT’s launch three years ago, powered by…

VIX – Volatility Index The VIX has retreated hard from recent highs, signaling that investors are less rattled by inflated AI and tech valuations and more hopeful about Fed cuts on the horizon. Market confidence…

Performance – Bloomberg U.S. 500 Ex Mag 7 Index vs. FTSE All-World Ex U.S. Index The AI boom remains a U.S. mega-cap story for now, leaving the global balance mostly untouched. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Returns in December if >5% YTD End of November in Year One of Presidential Cycle Bulls are in luck. Since 1945, whenever the S&P 500 was up more than 5% YTD by November’s…

S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank sees U.S. growth staying strong through 2028, with core inflation easing toward the Fed’s 2% target and job markets holding firm. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge

Composition of Fed Liabilities with Projections With QT ending, the Fed will pivot to reserve management purchases of Treasury bills in early 2026. Goldman Sachs expects bank reserves to climb past $3 trillion by late…