S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Post-election years typically bring strong market gains. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of over 18%, with positive returns in 90% of cases. The…
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Consensus forecasts suggest a resilient corporate sector, with S&P 500 EPS expected to grow by 7% in 2025 and accelerate to 14% in 2026, reflecting optimism despite economic uncertainties. Image: Goldman…
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have increased their long equity positions to a moderate-high level, reaching the 41st percentile. This reflects a notable increase in their equity exposure over the past few months. Image: Deutsche…
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate While economic and policy uncertainties have led to downward revisions in 2025 EPS estimates, this trend mirrors historical patterns and may contribute to a more optimistic…
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is about 22x, higher than its historical average. While this indicates optimism, it also means the market is more vulnerable to earnings…
GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index Easing financial conditions provide a tailwind to U.S. economic growth by supporting consumers and businesses. However, ongoing vigilance regarding inflation risks remains necessary. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 1.64%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
Sentiment Indicator – Investor Equity Positions Hedge funds are currently more bullish on the market compared to other investor categories, which remain cautious and have not significantly increased their market participation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Market Capitalization – United States vs. Asia vs. Europe The U.S. market outperformed global markets over the past decade due to strong earnings, profitability, and capital dynamics, but sustaining this may be challenging given high…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index With a Market Greed/Fear Index reading of 70.25, U.S. stock market sentiment is clearly in the “greed” zone, reflecting investor confidence and optimism. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle In post-election years, Q1 tends to be weak. Q2 often shows stronger performance, while Q3 usually experiences some weakness. As the saying goes, “History…