S&P 500 Seasonal Composite Midterm Election Year The S&P 500 Seasonal Composite still points to more upside for 2026, but the path could get choppy. U.S. stocks are entering their weakest seasonal stretch, which typically…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ US Equity Sentiment Indicator stands at 1.1. Similar readings have historically been followed by an average 1.2% gain in the S&P 500 over the next month. Image: Goldman…
VIX Seasonality The market’s summer calm can disappear quickly. From late July into the fall, volatility often returns and U.S. stocks face a bumpier ride. Historically, the VIX tends to rise during this period. Image:…
S&P 500 Company Guidance vs. Consensus Growth Expectations Corporate guidance points to another upcoming quarter of robust earnings growth for the S&P 500, driven largely by continued strength in tech. But a pullback in AI…
Hyperscaler Capex Estimates by Year Wall Street keeps underestimating the scale of hyperscalers’ AI spending. What looked like a temporary surge is turning into a multiyear race for data centers, chips, networking capacity and power.…
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History The appetite for risk has not faded. The Russell 2000 trades at 25 times forward earnings, above the Nasdaq 100 at 23 times and the S&P 500 at…
3-Month Peak to Trough Decline in Hedge Fund Gross Leverage Hedge funds cut exposure aggressively in July, triggering one of the sharpest de-grossing episodes of the past decade and a steep selloff in their most…
U.S.-Listed Spot-Gold ETF Fund Flow vs. Spot Performance Gold ETFs are back on investors’ radar as retail demand improves, central banks continue accumulating the metal and the macro backdrop remains favorable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock stands at 3.2%, elevated but consistent with hedging flows rather than a bearish conviction trade, and still…
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. Subsequent 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is now sitting at a Shiller CAPE level that has only shown up during the market’s priciest episodes. History points to…
Percent of S&P 500 Stocks with Dividends > 10-Year Treasury Yield The income trade has flipped. In July 2016, 63.4% of S&P 500 stocks yielded more than the 10-year Treasury. Today, fewer than 4% do,…