Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate The S&P 500 sits squarely in the middle of its post-GFC trend channel, hardly stretched, but far from a bargain. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuations and Dow Jones U.S. stocks are trading as if nothing can go wrong, with valuations in territory that has a habit of ending poorly. Timing the turn is always tricky, but when markets run…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums compressed in the U.S. and Japan, stocks offer limited upside over bonds, turning equities into a tougher bet and increasing the risk of frustration. Image:…
Discretionary Positioning and Ex-MCG & Tech Earnings Growth Discretionary positioning continues to lag earnings growth beyond MCG and Tech, leaving upside on the table if revisions hold and macro risks stay in check. Image: Deutsche…
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts are steadily lifting MSCI AC World EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027, betting that the AI and tech boom will drive real profit growth and wider margins, not just another…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q2 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast up to 2.81% from 2.75% a week ago, keeping the steady-growth narrative intact. That should sit well with markets.…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market is pricing a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, just below…
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate Analysts usually trim EPS estimates in the first four months of the year. Not this time. In 2026, revisions are heading higher, fueled by AI optimism…
Equity Sector Flows Money continues to pour into industrials, energy and materials, underscoring the ongoing tilt toward cyclical plays. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 80.67, the S&P 500 is flashing overbought conditions. Sentiment has flipped quickly since the March lows, driving a sharp rebound. Some near-term consolidation would not be unusual at…
S&P 500 Index Returns Past 10 Years (May – October) May-October is often seen as the weaker stretch for the S&P 500, but the track record tells a different story. Over the past decade, the…