S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years have a rough reputation. Q2 is usually the weakest quarter in the presidential cycle for U.S. stocks. With Q1 set to close…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 April tends to smile on U.S. equities. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.5% rise for the month. But this year’s Middle East conflict…
Insider Transactions Ratio Corporate insiders are still in buying mode, keeping the Insider Transactions Ratio in bullish territory and adding a dose of optimism to U.S. stocks. Investors often read renewed insider buying as a…
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech remains underweight, and cyclicals even more so as growth concerns keep investors cautious. Any sign of good news, though, could send positioning swinging the other…
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October, the S&P 500’s P/E has slipped from 23 to 19, showing investors have turned more cautious even as earnings hold steady. The mood has cooled, and…
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Risk appetite is neutral, supported by steady global equity inflows. Investors have grown more cautious over the past month. This looks like prudence, not panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 Valuation Spread The last time the Nasdaq 100 traded this cheap versus the S&P 500, it staged its biggest outperformance in a year. Honestly, that’s tough to ignore. Image: Bloomberg
Brent Crude Oil Futures Markets are betting the Middle East conflict won’t drag on, a view reflected in oil futures prices. The curve remains in backwardation, indicating tight near‑term supply but confidence that any disruption…
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Markets are pricing in just a 12% risk of a U.S. recession within a year, but Goldman Sachs remains more cautious, putting the likelihood at 30%.…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 50.71, in neutral territory. While the selloff has been sharp, a reflexive rally wouldn’t be surprising. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Max Pullback per Calendar Year Markets are never a straight ride up. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged double‑digit gains while dropping roughly 14% each year. Volatility is simply the cost…