S&P 500 Performance in Midterm Years September has often been challenging for U.S. stocks in midterm years. But October and November have historically been the best months, with risk appetite usually returning as election uncertainty…
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning slipped to the 48th percentile, close to neutral. With positioning still far from extreme, investors have room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 and 2027 With S&P 500 targets of 8,000, 8,300, and 8,700 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, Goldman Sachs sees earnings, not valuations, as the fuel for…
Largecap Equity Positioning and Earnings Growth Large-cap equity positioning sits at the 65th percentile, modestly overweight but still cautious given the strength of earnings growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is starting to roll over, and that is not really the signal bulls want to see. After climbing into the danger zone, it is now…
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTA positioning remains elevated across most major indexes. The S&P 500 sits at the 80th percentile, while the Nasdaq-100 still lags at the 47th. The Russell 2000 is stretched at the…
Valuation – S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 P/E Prices have lagged the earnings boom, leaving near-term valuations below their trend-earnings multiples. The result is a U.S. market showing…
MSCI AC World EPS Earnings aren’t just good, they’re strong, and revisions are unusually well supported. The Street is pricing in AI-driven margin expansion without a capex blowout. So where’s the bubble risk, in earnings…
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail optimism is fading fast. The AAII bull-bear spread has been negative in 25 of 37 weeks this year and just hit its lowest level since May 2025, a contrarian extreme…
Valuation – S&P 500 Trailing P/E: Current vs. Average Bull-Market Extremes At 26 times trailing earnings, the S&P 500 stands well above its historical average and many previous bull-market peaks, leaving little room for bad…
S&P 500 Days in a Row without a 1% Drop Thirty-five trading days without a 1% decline have left the S&P 500 unusually calm. Historically, stretches of such low volatility have been more common in…