S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle During midterm election years, U.S. stocks tend to turn more volatile and take a breather, tracing the familiar four-year presidential cycle. This choppiness is common as policy uncertainty peaks before…
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally In the days following “Liberation Day,” the odds of a sharp rally were high. Now, the balance has flipped: drawdown risk feels heavier, and equity asymmetry reflects a…
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.4% in January. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…
Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors are punishing U.S. sectors most exposed to AI‑driven automation, betting that vulnerable business models will struggle to keep pace, despite steady fundamentals. Automation’s shockwaves are reshaping entire sectors. Image:…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q1 2026 US GDP Nowcast slightly higher to 2.38% from 2.37% a week earlier, keeping the steady-growth storyline in play. Image: Federal Reserve Bank…
Hyperscaler Quarterly Capex Growth Later in 2026, hyperscalers are expected to ease capex growth, a shift that could drag on valuations but also leave them vulnerable in the supply-strained fight for AI dominance. Image: Goldman…
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In December, U.S. building permits rose to 1.448 million. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal…
Congressional Budget Office Forecast of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The Congressional Budget Office sees the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edging higher over the next few years as swelling federal debt puts upward pressure on borrowing…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History With earnings sentiment holding firm, investors are keeping S&P 500 sector valuations stretched above long-term averages. For now, as profit momentum holds, the market seems happy to…
Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets hate uncertainty. History shows that the S&P 500 tends to stumble when major conflict breaks out, but it usually rebounds quickly unless demand or earnings take a real…
S&P 500 Four Month Range The S&P 500 has spent four months drifting in a tight range, the kind of calm that rarely lasts. Which way it breaks is anyone’s guess, but as traders like…