S&P 500 vs. U.S. Corp Investment Grade All Sectors OAS A widening OAS for investment grade debt is typically a bearish signal for U.S. equities. That’s not what stock bulls want to see. Image: TS…
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 With earnings set to jump 26% this year, the Magnificent Seven look poised to outpace the rest of the S&P 500, where growth is seen…
U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation cooled in February as core CPI rose 0.22%, right on expectations. The annual rate slowed to 2.5%, marking steady disinflation progress but still short of the Fed’s 2% target.…
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At a forward P/E of 16 against 21 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index isn’t exactly a bargain, but it shows how much better value lies beyond Big Tech…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 16.1%, keeping the balance of risk tilted toward continued expansion. Image:…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast to 2.09% from 2.23% a week earlier, a small downgrade that still leaves the steady‑growth narrative intact. Image: Federal…
Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes Investors’ risk appetite for equities has cooled recently but stays in positive territory amid ongoing market swings. Sentiment has definitely softened, but bulls haven’t left the room. Image:…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Earnings optimism hasn’t cracked, and investors are keeping S&P 500 sectors priced rich. As long as profits keep rolling in, few seem ready to question the price…
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The market is telling a slower-growth story. Relative returns between cyclical and defensive stocks imply about 1.5% real GDP growth in the…
Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Inflation may feel abstract, but its impact isn’t: History shows the U.S. dollar has lost about 90% of its purchasing power since 1966. Only assets that outpace rising prices,…
U.S. Inflation: 1970 vs. Today The modern economy shows greater resilience to inflation pressures compared to the 1970s, but whether it avoids stagflation depends on how long the current geopolitical conflict lasts. Image: Deutsche Bank