S&P 500 Average Return in December With the holidays in sight, buyers are starting to reappear. History shows U.S. stocks often find a floor around mid-December and rally into year-end, a seasonal lift the bulls…

Valuation – Shiller CAPE Ratio for the S&P 500 The Shiller CAPE has pushed above 40, approaching the 44-times peak seen at the height of the dot-com frenzy. Such rich valuations have often signaled markets…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a US recession within the next 12 months is 19%, a level slightly…

Insider Transactions Ratio Insider buying is keeping pace with selling, leaving the Insider Transactions Ratio parked in neutral. Image: Barron’s

GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index With rates drifting lower and quantitative tightening in the rearview mirror, U.S. financial conditions are easing, creating a friendlier setting for growth across both households and firms. Image: Goldman Sachs…

Gold vs. 1970s Gold has been shining bright, but it’s nowhere near the late-1970s gold rush. Investors might want to keep an open mind. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Several sectors of the S&P 500 still trade at rich valuations compared with their historical averages. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy to maintain economic leadership in 2026, projecting GDP growth of 2.5%, comfortably above consensus, as steady inflation and a resilient jobs market keep momentum going.…

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Optimism is running high on Wall Street for 2026, with analysts forecasting a 14% rise in S&P 500 earnings. But small caps could be the real story, with EPS growth forecast…

Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At 80.48 on the Greed and Fear Index, markets are running hot. Some consolidation before Christmas wouldn’t shock anyone. Image: Real Investment Advice

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in December As the holidays approach, buyers usually return and the year-end rally tends to pick up speed in the second half of December. Historically, U.S. stocks have climbed…