Average Year for the S&P 500 the Past 20 Years Mid-March has often marked turning points for U.S. stocks over the past two decades, and from there, rallies tend to take shape. History may not…

WTI Crude Oil and Recessions When oil prices surge, sometimes doubling, it’s often a red flag for the U.S. economy. History shows these jumps tend to foreshadow recessions, making crude a key gauge for investors…

Price Performance of Gold Before and After the Start of Armed Conflicts When conflict breaks out in the Middle East, gold typically shines as a tactical safe haven, with prices jumping as traders add a…

Effect of a 10% Increase in Oil Prices on Inflation A 10% rise in crude oil prices would add modestly to headline inflation over the year. But if higher prices persist, the inflation effect would…

Global GS Financial Conditions Index Global financial conditions tightened by 14 basis points, which typically dampens spending and investment by households and firms, especially when triggered by geopolitical shocks like the current Middle East escalation.…

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q1 2026 US GDP Nowcast slightly higher to 2.38% from 2.37% a week earlier, keeping the steady-growth storyline in play. Image: Federal Reserve Bank…

EPS Revisions Upward EPS revisions across the S&P 500, Topix, and especially MSCI EM signal growing confidence in 2026 earnings. Momentum still leans toward strength rather than slowdown, though the STOXX 600 continues to lag…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns March has a long track record of lifting the S&P 500, often kicking off with a burst of momentum. But markets love to surprise us when everyone expects a rally.…

S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures keeps the S&P 500 in neutral, though there’s still room for an upside break if momentum returns. For now, that spark just isn’t there. Image:…

S&P 500 Index and Technical Score With a reading of 69.47, the S&P 500 has softened over the past month, but the broader technical setup remains bullish as the index continues to trade inside its…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns March and April have a history of treating U.S. stocks well, as seasonal tailwinds lift sentiment. Maybe a dose of spring optimism is making the rounds on…