Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite still points to a constructive year for 2026, but the near-term path may be bumpy. U.S. stocks are entering their weakest seasonal…
GS Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions excluding equities have tightened slightly, but the overall stance remains easy and supportive of growth rather than restrictive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Insider Transactions Ratio Buying and selling are now in balance, pushing the Insider Transactions Ratio back into neutral territory. For now, insiders are giving investors no clear message. Image: Barron’s
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies sit in the 76th percentile and still overweight, while discretionary investors are only in the 44th percentile and remain slightly underweight, leaving plenty of room to add risk.…
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts are pushing MSCI AC World EPS estimates higher for 2026 and 2027, betting the AI’s tech boom will lift margins instead of triggering another capex overshoot. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums In the U.S. and Japan, the equity risk premium has shrunk so much that stocks barely pay investors for taking extra risk over bonds. That makes the case for…
Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in Mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech cooled from elevated levels, but remained firmly overweight, sitting in the 74th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.65% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures is still signaling overbought conditions in the S&P 500. That could give investors a reason to trim positions and rebalance portfolios as the risk of…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index With the Greed and Fear Index at 86.63, risk appetite is running hot. That is helping fuel the rally, but it also leaves the market vulnerable to a…
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Goldman Sachs is sticking with its call for earnings to push the S&P 500 to 8,000 in 2026, a 17% annual return even if the road there stays bumpy.…