Median S&P 500 Performance After Fed Cuts Rates The S&P 500 has typically risen by a median of roughly 50% in the two years after the Fed begins cutting rates. However, when cuts take place…

Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) Elevated valuations in U.S. and global equity markets rest mainly on bullish earnings expectations, led by tech and AI companies benefiting from robust revenue growth, solid profitability,…

Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown The risk of a drawdown in the S&P 500 has risen recently, fueled by low market volatility, slowing economic growth, and ongoing concerns over tariffs and rising inflation later this…

Consensus Capex Growth Estimates Beginning in Q4 2025 and continuing into 2026, hyperscaler AI companies are expected to see a sharp deceleration in capex growth, which could pressure valuation multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance In September, U.S. equity investors have grown more risk-averse as political uncertainty and stretched valuations dominate concerns, even as recession risks ease and expectations for…

CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs’ overall equity allocation, currently in the 89th percentile, indicates strong confidence in the potential for positive returns from equities. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed has revised its Q4 2025 U.S. real GDP Nowcast dowward to 2.28%, from 2.37% last week, signaling continued growth but at a more moderate pace. Image:…

Small Cap Equity Positioning Current small-cap equity positioning is neutral at the 47th percentile, indicating potential for greater exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year The outlook could shift quickly in response to upcoming inflation data and changing economic conditions, but for now traders are pricing in 67 basis points…

S&P 500 Index and Technical Score The S&P 500, with a reading of 88.75, continues to be considered overbought—an indicator of elevated buying activity and limited upside potential. Image: Real Investment Advice

Different Market Sentiment Indicators Market sentiment indicators currently continue to point to a risk-on environment, where investors show a preference for higher-risk assets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research