Estimated U.S. Recession Probability The U.S.-Iran agreement has taken some tail risk off the table, with Goldman Sachs trimming its 12-month U.S. recession call to 15% from 25%, back at its long-term average. Image: Goldman…
U.S. Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions have eased since March, pointing to a more growth‑friendly backdrop. Looser conditions typically give near‑term GDP a lift. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech sits near neutral, while cyclicals remain deeply underweight at the 8th percentile. It would not take much positive news to trigger a sharp reversal. Image:…
S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish on U.S. equities. When net short positioning reaches these kinds of extremes, it has often set the stage for sharp short squeezes, a classic…
S&P 500 vs. U.S. 10-Year Bond Correlation Since the COVID-19 pandemic, equities and bonds have increasingly moved in tandem, especially during inflation spikes and rate hikes, weakening bonds’ traditional role as a diversifier. Image: Goldman…
MSCI AC World EPS Estimates for MSCI AC World EPS in 2026 and 2027 are edging higher as analysts bet the AI and tech surge will translate into fatter margins, not another round of overinvestment.…
U.S. Quality vs. Momentum Equities Since the March lows, momentum has taken the lead over quality, backed by strong earnings prints and positive price action. For now, investors are sticking with companies that deliver on…
Materials Group Positioning Materials positioning has sunk to the 0th percentile, with investors now deeply underweight. From here, it would not take much to set off a sharp rebound. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index Following the SpaceX IPO, retail investors piled back into equities, sending the Greed and Fear Index to 79.46 and into extreme greed territory. Image: Real Investment Advice
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning sits in the 42nd percentile, still far from crowded and leaving plenty of room for further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Forecast of Gold Prices Goldman Sachs slashed its year-end gold forecast by $500 an ounce as expectations for Fed easing in 2026 faded. The new $4,900 December target still leaves room for second-half gains. Image:…