Insider Transactions Ratio The Insider Transactions Ratio remains in neutral territory, with buying and selling nearly balanced. For now, corporate insiders appear to be waiting for a clearer market direction. Image: Barron’s
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are close to neutral, with positioning in the 44th percentile. Discretionary investors are far more cautious, with positioning at just the 3rd percentile and plenty of room to…
Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Hyperscalers’ combined free cash flow turned negative in Q3 and is expected to stay there through 2027 as AI spending accelerates. A recovery is not expected until 2028. For now, burning…
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity expanded in October. The ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 55.5, beating expectations of 54.5 and notching a tenth straight month of expansion. The sector remains…
Relative Performance – Nasdaq 100 / U.S. Treasury Bonds Ratio After weeks of market correction, the trade of buying U.S. tech stocks and shorting U.S. Treasury bonds is still holding up. Image: Bloomberg
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season is sounding a familiar note: corporate profits remain resilient. So far, 60% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q3 estimates by at least one standard deviation. Image:…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns As bears freeze, U.S. stocks catch fire in November: the strongest month on average since 1950, the best past 10 years, the second best in midterm years,…
Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Hyperscaler capex has held fairly steady this earnings season, breaking from the faster pace of recent quarters. Analysts expect spending to reach $808 billion in 2026, $1.163 trillion in 2027, and…
Realized and Consensus Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow AI spending is set to keep hyperscaler free cash flow in the red through 2027, before a recovery in 2028. For now, the cash burn is the price…
U.S. Share Buyback Authorization Announcements Investors are fixated on AI spending. Meanwhile, U.S. companies have authorized a record $1.268 trillion in buybacks so far this year, giving equities a significant source of support. Image: Goldman…
18 AI Buildout Names = 33.6% of the S&P 500 If the AI complex falls 20% while everything else holds steady, the S&P 500 would drop 6.7%. The other 485 stocks would need to rise…