Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate There’s no sign of cracks in earnings momentum. Almost 88% of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates, with the beat rate running well ahead of the 74%…
Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 EPS Equal-weight S&P 500 prices and EPS have risen steadily together. Earnings are still doing the heavy lifting, but the gains are uneven and increasingly concentrated in a handful of…
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative June and July The S&P 500 fell 0.1% in July. Bulls can call it noise, but bears will see a familiar pattern. Since 1950, when both June and July…
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates The biggest earnings growth may come from small caps. Their profits are projected to jump 37% this year and 45% in 2027, while S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 32%…
Aggregate Earnings Surprise – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Philly Semiconductors, Bloomberg AI Value Chain The S&P 500 just posted its strongest earnings season in years, powered by AI-driven profits. When the index beats estimates by…
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Fair Value Model The 10-year U.S. Treasury is yielding about 4.7%, roughly 40 basis points above its fair-value estimate of 4.3%. That spread favors mean-reversion trades over outright directional bets.…
Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ The AI trade is following the classic Momentum rally pattern, but with volatility at levels rarely seen outside recessions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 S&P 500 seasonality shows August is rarely a sweet spot for stocks, as volatility tends to pick up and returns often lag. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield U.S. equities are trading at stretched valuation percentiles on the Shiller P/E, while the 10‑year Treasury yield sits close to its long‑term average. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the first half of August has often been a drag on the S&P 500, ranking as the fifth-weakest half‑month of the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
SpaceX and Median of 20 Largest IPOs on Nasdaq Wall Street’s old joke that IPO stands for “It’s Probably Overpriced” feels a little less funny now, but not entirely wrong. SpaceX is lagging most other…