Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 November has typically been a bright spot for U.S. stocks, with an average gain of 1.6%. Seasonal flows, holiday-spending optimism and year-end positioning could help extend…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.62%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little evidence of a meaningful U.S. slowdown. It forecasts GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, close to consensus. A resilient labor market is helping…
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Early November is generally a very favorable period for the S&P 500. Since 1950, the first half of November ranks seventh for gains among all half-month periods. Image: Goldman Sachs…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures places the S&P 500 above neutral, but nowhere near overbought. A push higher is still on the table if momentum returns. So far, though, the…
Monthly Prediction Trading Volumes Retail trading activity has cooled year over year, but prediction markets are heating up. Their monthly volume hit $78 billion in September. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are pricing in steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives suggests U.S. real GDP growth of 1.9%,…
The Cost of Calling a Bubble Early: S&P 500 vs. T-bills Seven years ago, many serious investors warned that the market was in a bubble. Since October 2019, $100,000 in the S&P 500 has grown…
S&P 500 Median Performance Around First Fed Rate Hikes U.S. stocks often struggle for about four months after the first rate hike, then rebound. 2026 appears to be following the same pattern. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Gold Gold’s selloff goes beyond ETF selling, with rising yields and a stronger U.S. dollar pointing to a broader repricing. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equity Share of U.S. Household Financial Asset Portfolio vs. S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio With everyone crowded into equities and valuations stretched, there’s little cushion left. History doesn’t call for a crash, but it shows…