Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities U.S. Treasuries continue to draw strong foreign demand. Holdings rose to a record $9.37 trillion in May, but the buying power has passed from foreign central banks to private…
Equity Positioning At the 36th percentile, overall equity positioning sits just below neutral and well short of crowded, while large-cap tech at the 56th percentile is near neutral after easing from more elevated levels. Image:…
Sector Fund Flows Tech funds enjoyed strong inflows over the past year, driven by AI hype, but those flows are reversing as investors reassess valuations, rates and market risk. The tech story isn’t over; it’s…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 13.6%, leaving the expansion narrative in place. This cycle still has…
Change in S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Consensus Unlike the usual pattern of downward revisions during the season, S&P 500 earnings estimates turned out to be too conservative. Third-quarter numbers are now moving higher, a positive…
Equities Allocation by G10 and U.S. Investors Across the G10, equity exposure in household, pension, and insurance portfolios has moved up significantly, nearing record highs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Magnificent Seven 12-Month Forward P/E Valuations for the Magnificent Seven have come down meaningfully from their peak and now sit near the lower end of the past seven years. They’re still not a bargain, but…
U.S. Equity Risk Indicator The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is at a level that has historically pointed to weakness over the short to intermediate term. But markets can stay stretched far longer than logic suggests,…
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS SA vs. S&P 500 Despite a strong second quarter of earnings, U.S. stocks have mostly gone nowhere. If the Fed turns more hawkish or rates stay elevated for longer, valuation multiples…
S&P 500 Performance Since 2025 The S&P 500 has been trapped in a narrow range for two months, with rotations playing out underneath the surface, reminiscent of the November-to-February period. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index vs. S&P 500 Equally-Weighted Index Investors looking to trim exposure to AI-fueled volatility may want to consider the equal-weight S&P 500. It beat the cap-weighted index during the dot-com bust and…