Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 14.5%, tilting the narrative toward continued expansion. This cycle still has…
Hyperscaler Quarterly Capex Growth Over the next few quarters, hyperscalers are set to slow capex growth, which could drag on valuations while leaving them more vulnerable in the supply-strained battle for AI leadership. Image: Goldman…
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In March, U.S. building permits declined to 1.372 million, below expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions.…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 Since 1950, May has been a dead spot for U.S. stocks. The market typically finds its footing in June and July, only to see momentum fade as August…
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate The S&P 500 sits squarely in the middle of its post-GFC trend channel, hardly stretched, but far from a bargain. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuations and Dow Jones U.S. stocks are trading as if nothing can go wrong, with valuations in territory that has a habit of ending poorly. Timing the turn is always tricky, but when markets run…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums compressed in the U.S. and Japan, stocks offer limited upside over bonds, turning equities into a tougher bet and increasing the risk of frustration. Image:…
Discretionary Positioning and Ex-MCG & Tech Earnings Growth Discretionary positioning continues to lag earnings growth beyond MCG and Tech, leaving upside on the table if revisions hold and macro risks stay in check. Image: Deutsche…
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts are steadily lifting MSCI AC World EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027, betting that the AI and tech boom will drive real profit growth and wider margins, not just another…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market is pricing a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, just below…
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate Analysts usually trim EPS estimates in the first four months of the year. Not this time. In 2026, revisions are heading higher, fueled by AI optimism…