S&P 500 Real Trailing 4Q EPS Relative to 30-Year Trend S&P 500 earnings are running well ahead of their 30-year trend, helping support stocks. But if the boom loses steam, lofty valuations could leave the…
S&P 500 Performance from the October 26 Close to December 31, by Market Regime In the nine midterm years since 1951 when the S&P 500 was up year to date on October 26, it rose…
S&P 500 Average Performance per Day The calendar favors the bulls: October 28 has historically been the S&P 500’s best day of the year. Will the Fed spoil the party today? Image: Carson Investment Research
Ownership of the U.S. Equity Market U.S. households now own 42% of the U.S. equity market. But that ownership is heavily concentrated, with nearly 90% in the hands of the wealthiest 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Seasonality – Average Path of the S&P 500 Through a Year Since 1928, With Midterm and Non-Midterm Years Averages mask wide dispersion, but if history is any guide, the S&P 500 is entering into a…
MCG & Tech vs. Rest of S&P 500 MCG & Tech has fallen over the past two weeks while the rest of the S&P 500 pushed higher. The divergence points to sector rotation rather than…
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market puts the odds of a U.S. recession over the next year at just 13%. Consensus is closer to 20%, above the historical average. Is…
Forecasts for S&P 500 Earnings and Returns Goldman Sachs sees the S&P 500 climbing to 8,700 over the next 12 months, a 14% gain. Earnings growth, not multiple expansion, is expected to drive the advance.…
Trailing 4-Quarter Net Equity Demand Household buying has stayed strong, more than offsetting weaker corporate demand for U.S. equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity remains negative, leaving U.S. stocks without a crucial source of support over the next three to six months. That’s unlikely to change unless monetary…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has retreated from extreme levels to -0.5, as investors grow more cautious. That leaves risky assets with more room to climb than they…