Cumulative Flows to Cryptocurrency Funds Crypto funds have seen steady outflows over the past month, led by heavy selling in Bitcoin vehicles as investors pull back from the sector. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Nine Day Win Streaks for the S&P 500 Nine-day winning streaks have been a reliable bullish signal for the S&P 500. In every instance since 1990, the index has been higher 12 months later, delivering…
Daily Percentage Change in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 10.26% last Friday, its sharpest decline since March 2020. The long-term story remains intact, but expectations had clearly overheated. Image:…
U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator Animal spirits are building, but not yet overheating. Retail activity and Goldman Sachs’s Speculative Trading Indicator are firm, still short of past cycle peaks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock sits at 3.2%, a relatively elevated level, but the rise appears driven by hedging activity rather than…
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a US recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs puts the odds closer to 25%,…
S&P 500 Returns After >19% in Two Months Since the late-March lows, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 19%. In similar rebounds, stocks have typically pushed higher over one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month horizons,…
Crypto Fund Flows Crypto funds have suffered sustained outflows over the past month, with Bitcoin vehicles accounting for the bulk of the selling as investors step back from the space. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Equity Positioning Overall equity positioning sits in the 65th percentile, pointing to a modest overweight. At the same time, crowding in large caps, especially tech, has intensified, leaving the market more fragile when momentum rolls…
S&P 500 Annual Highs Per Month The S&P 500 has never peaked in June. Every other month has done so at least once since 1950. If history holds, the market’s high may still be ahead,…
Relative Total Return Performance S&P 500 Momentum vs. Low Volatility Stocks The ratio of S&P 500 momentum to low volatility stocks is nearing Tech Bubble peaks, pointing to a tech-fueled late cycle. The trend can…