S&P 500 Index Performance in Year +1 After Three Consecutive >=+20% Gains Following a powerful two-year run, the S&P 500 could bottom in the fall as markets test the new Fed chair, before pushing toward…
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) After the recent surge, U.S. stocks are firmly out of bargain territory. Most valuation gauges are stretched, sitting more than two standard deviations above historical norms. “Cheap” is…
Bitcoin and Software Bitcoin has moved largely in step with software stocks in recent years, echoing broader swings in risk appetite and investor sentiment. That correlation is coming back into focus as speculative momentum builds.…
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are tilting toward a steady growth outlook. Relative returns between cyclical and defensive stocks imply about 1.9% U.S. real GDP growth,…
S&P 500 Returns Following Major Geopolitical Events History shows the same script in over 20 major events since WWII: markets snap back quicker than feared, and those who hold their nerve often win. Panic usually…
Distribution of S&P 500 Annual Returns Since 1928, double-digit annual losses in the S&P 500 have been the exception, not the rule, occurring only 12 times. Today, with record earnings, elevated margins, and sustained AI…
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Multiple – MSCI Regions, STOXX 600 and S&P 500 Markets may have pulled back, but valuations are still elevated worldwide. Strong earnings are doing the work, and as long as…
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF projects global growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Robust tech investment, steady policy support, and a surprisingly flexible private sector are keeping momentum alive…
GS Financial Conditions Index With rates lower and equities climbing, looser US financial conditions are giving both consumer spending and business investment a stronger tailwind. Confidence often strengthens in step. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
S&P 500 Drawdowns from 52-Week High and the First Two Years of a New Fed Chair’s Term Fed leadership changes don’t usually shake markets on their own. It’s the macro picture and prior positioning that…
Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscaler capex is poised to climb to $674 billion this year and $794 billion in 2027, but the path won’t be entirely smooth. Episodes of overcapacity may slow momentum as demand and returns…