Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still trading as if nothing can go wrong, the next five years are likely to deliver thinner returns. The businesses are outstanding, but price…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 1.46% YoY in August. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
S&P 500 Performance in this Cycle Measured against prior four-year election cycles, the current bull market is unusually powerful: the S&P 500 is up nearly 100% since the end of 2022, the second-strongest performance in…
Average S&P 500 Performance Midterm years typically bring a bumpy start to the second half for the S&P 500, with sellers gaining traction into October as summer ends. Post-election, the market has a habit of…
MSCI World Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield When bond yields climb, equities often take a hit or simply lose momentum. The pattern is familiar: P/E multiples stall and money rotates out of long‑duration growth…
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine‑decade trend. Can profits stay this far ahead of history? If they drift back toward the mean, today’s rich multiples could…
U.S. Dollar Net Positioning U.S. dollar positioning remains stretched. Historically, a softer greenback has typically lifted stocks and added fuel to equity rallies. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Equity Risk Indicator and S&P 500 The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is flashing red, warning that the S&P 500 may be running hot. History shows that once this metric hits extreme levels, significant equity…
Gold Net Speculative Positioning Speculative positioning in gold has reversed sharply in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs still sees prices reaching $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite still argues for a constructive 2026. The early-year correction suggests the market has already digested much of the typical midterm election weakness.…
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns The S&P 500 typically gives back about 14% at some point each year. Investors hate it, but they also got rewarded: the index closed higher in 35…