MOVE Index vs. U.S. 10-Year Note Unlike in 2022, U.S. 10-year yields are higher year to date, but rate volatility has stayed contained. Implied and realized volatility remain compressed even as inflation risks and Fed…
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At 17 times forward earnings, versus 21 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index is hardly cheap, but it still looks better on a relative basis. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Median Single Stock Short Interest Within S&P 500 Index Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock is elevated, raising the odds of short squeezes. The rise reflects hedging activity rather than a wave of…
U.S. Equity Issuance U.S. equity issuance has been strengthening since 2023, and may accelerate further in coming months if the anticipated wave of mega-IPOs materializes. The question is whether the market has the appetite to…
Probability of U.S. Recession The one-year U.S. recession probability implied by the S&P 500 and BBB spread has eased, pointing to a more constructive market tone as fears of near-term economic stress fade. Image: J.P.…
S&P 500 Performance After >10% April/May Returns The S&P 500 surged 16.1% in April and May, the second-best performance on record. History suggests momentum tends to carry. In prior double-digit gains, June has always been…
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) Valuations in U.S. and global equities remain stretched, with earnings momentum doing most of the work. As long as companies keep posting solid results, investors seem willing…
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing continued to gain traction in May, with the ISM Manufacturing Index rising to 54, above expectations of 53.1, and marking a fifth straight month of expansion.…
S&P 500 and Market Breadth Streaks The S&P 500 may be printing new highs, but the rally lacks broad participation. Weak breadth like this tends to point to underlying weakness and leaves the market more…
S&P 500 Return During June June has a reputation for weakness in midterm years, but the last decade tells a different story: it closed higher in 9 out of 10 years, posting a median gain…
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 The S&P 500’s reaction to the Middle East conflict has shifted from one of the weakest after a geopolitical shock to one of the strongest, as investors…