Risk Appetite Indicator Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator is on the rise. Investors are stepping back into risk with few signs of overheating. Confidence is improving, but not getting ahead of itself. Image: Goldman Sachs…
S&P 500 12-Month Forward Returns After 10-Day Surges Of 10%+ History leans bullish: since 1950, a 10% surge in the S&P 500 over 10 days, like in April, has been followed by gains in 17…
S&P 500 – Investing at All-Time Highs vs. All Other Days Investing at all-time highs tends to spook investors, but the data suggests otherwise: S&P 500 forward returns have typically looked much like those from…
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.3% in March. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…
S&P 500 and Prediction Market Odds of the End to the Iran Conflict U.S. stocks advanced as the geopolitical mood brightened. The S&P 500 has followed every twist in expectations around the Iran conflict. Right…
U.S. 10 Year Yield and S&P 500 For equities, focus less on where rates are and more on how fast they’re moving. U.S. stocks have rarely shown a strong link to the absolute level of…
S&P 500 and Three Weeks of +3% Gains in a Row The S&P 500 notched a third straight week of gains above 3%. Moves like this usually show up in snapback rallies after panic selling,…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.66% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks are pushing higher from the bottom of their longer-term trend channel against the S&P 500, with momentum still…
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs sees it closer to 30%. Is…
Weekly Change in Equity Positioning Investors piled into equities, driving one of the biggest weekly jumps in positioning on record. Such bursts often reflect a market gripped by FOMO. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation