Valuation – U.S. Hyperscalers 12-Month Forward P/E U.S. hyperscalers are trading at decade-low valuations, tempting bargain hunters. But doubts about AI spending and when those returns will arrive are keeping buyers on the sidelines. Image:…
Contribution to S&P 500 EPS Growth S&P 500 earnings are riding a strong tailwind from booming energy profits and tight AI chip supply, with semiconductor stocks responsible for nearly half of Q2 2026 growth. Image:…
Inflation – WTI Crude Oil Inflation eased in June largely because oil and gasoline prices fell, but the recent rebound in oil prices means inflation pressures could re‑intensify over the coming months. Image: MarketDesk Research
Financials Group Positioning Financials have improved in positioning, but they still sit in the 23rd percentile, leaving room for more risk-taking. Fundamentals are steady, so the caution may still be a bit overdone. Image: Deutsche…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At 12%, market-implied odds of a U.S. recession over the next year sit below their long-run average, leaving…
Materials Group Positioning Positioning in materials has collapsed to extreme lows, leaving investors sharply underweight. A small shift in sentiment could fuel a powerful rebound. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Drawdown from 52 Week High of Various Global Tech Sectors or Tech Sensitive Indices Global tech and the usual tech‑sensitive indices are trading well below their 52‑week highs. This is the kind of year that…
Gold Price vs. Market Pricing of 25bp Fed Hikes (Inverted) Gold struggles as energy‑driven inflation keeps Fed rate‑hike risks alive, lifting the dollar and real yields and capping near‑term gains for bullion. Image: Goldman Sachs…
MCG & Tech vs. The Rest Earnings Growth Earnings growth for MCG and Tech is expected to keep accelerating from already lofty levels, while profits for the rest of the S&P 500 are projected to…
MSCI Equity Indexes, Total Return in US$ Since Trump’s inauguration, U.S. equities have lagged their global peers, with Europe ahead by 12%, Japan by 17%, and emerging markets by 27%. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is climbing into the danger zone that makes investors uneasy, edging deeper into levels last seen at major market tops. The bulls still run the…