U.S. Presidential Disapproval Rating With the midterm elections approaching, the president’s disapproval rating has climbed above 60%, a historically high level that leaves Republicans facing a serious political headwind. Image: BCA Research

Consensus Capex Growth Estimates for AI Hyperscalers Initial consensus forecasts have consistently underestimated AI hyperscalers’ capex growth in recent years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Annual Cloud Capex J.P. Morgan projects cloud capex will climb to $967 billion in 2026 and $1.425 trillion in 2027 driven by surging AI demand, before flattening out from 2028 to 2030. Image: J.P. Morgan

Seasonality of Market Performance – MSCI USA If history is any guide, the U.S. stock market is in a seasonally strong period, one that has often produced the market’s best returns of the year. Image:…

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.48% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Hyperscalers Realized Return on Invested Capital Hyperscalers’ ROIC has dropped from 40% to 25%. But the bigger concern is that the AI buildout may be less profitable than reported, with shadow debt and circular financing…

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium has turned negative, putting U.S. stocks in a tricky situation: higher risk for lower expected returns. That’s a tough pitch, especially if earnings or sentiment falter.…

Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Annual Return Since 1951, U.S. stocks have generally performed better under Republican-led Congresses than under Democratic-led ones. The best annual returns came when Congress was split,…

S&P 500 – Short Interest in SPY U.S. Equity ETF Short interest in SPY (S&P 500 ETF) remains near historic lows, suggesting investors are positioned for gains, not a sharp reversal. That leaves little short-covering…

S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE) S&P 500 ROE is rising, but investors are beginning to question whether today’s exceptional returns are sustainable. For now, earnings expectations remain supportive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Gross Buyback Growth Despite surging AI investment and increased equity issuance, corporate buybacks have picked up speed. S&P 500 gross buybacks jumped 15% year-over-year in the first half of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs…