Sentiment Indicator – Investor Equity Positions Hedge funds are currently more bullish on the market compared to other investor categories, which remain cautious and have not significantly increased their market participation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle In post-election years, Q1 tends to be weak. Q2 often shows stronger performance, while Q3 usually experiences some weakness. As the saying goes, “History…
Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Bottom-up consensus estimates show S&P 500 EPS growth slowing to 4% year-over-year in Q2 2025, highlighting a cautious earnings environment amid ongoing revisions and sector challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High While many are skeptical about investing at all-time highs, evidence suggests it often leads to stronger forward returns…
Implied Probability of the S&P 500 Rising over the Next Six Months with a Cutoff Set at 75% JPMorgan’s AI-enhanced forecasting model indicates a 96% probability that U.S. stocks will rise over the next six…
The Link To Oil Oil consumption is deeply embedded in nearly every facet of modern life, from the food we eat to the products and services we purchase. This widespread use makes oil demand a…
S&P 500 Win Streaks the Month of July For 10 straight years, the S&P 500 has gained in July—an impressive record. Historically, July is the best month for stocks in post-election years. Another gain this…
U.S. Households’ (Incl. Hedge Fund) Asset Allocation U.S. households are currently heavily overweight in equities relative to fixed income, reflecting strong conviction in U.S. equity markets despite ongoing economic uncertainties and cautious positioning in bonds.…
Tech IPOs vs. Non-Tech IPOs Tech IPO shares have soared an average of 108% above their offering price. By comparison, non-tech IPOs have gained 49%, a solid return but significantly less than the surge seen…
S&P 500 Index and Percent of Members Above 200-Day Moving Average The S&P 500 nears its all-time high, but without improved breadth and broader sector participation, the market risks a correction. Rising indexes amid weak…
Number of Unique Names in Top 10 Ranking Since 2014 to Date Over the past decade, less than 20 companies have consistently ranked among the top 10 by market capitalization in both the U.S. and…