S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials) Over the past 35 years, the S&P 500’s profit margin has climbed from 5% to 12% and has held at high levels in recent years, with…
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) The recent decline in U.S. 10-year real yields points to growing investor caution, with labor market softening fueling bets on more Fed easing ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 TTM EPS Growth Strong EPS growth, combined with Fed rate cuts, often fuels equities by reducing funding costs, boosting investment and sustaining earnings momentum—the classic drivers of bull markets.…
U.S. Corporate Equities Market Value Outstanding vs. Monetary Base vs. Nominal GDP Quantitative easing expands the monetary base, alongside a rising federal deficit, a combination that usually boosts financial asset prices but delivers mixed and…
Financial Gold Models Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast to an average of $4,000 per ounce for 2026, driven by strong central bank buying, a weakening U.S. dollar, expected Fed rate cuts, and…
Announced Share Repurchases (U.S. Buybacks) The surge in S&P 500 buybacks this year, backed by solid earnings, liquidity, and targeted capital allocation, marks a pivotal year for shareholder value and market gains. Image: J.P. Morgan…
Gold Annual Returns Up 40% this year, gold is enjoying its strongest rally since 1979’s 133% surge. But so far, the rise has stirred far less hysteria than in earlier eras, leaving room for further…
U.S. Consumer Confidence in Higher Stock Prices vs. S&P 500 Trailing Valuations When consumers feel confident about future stock prices, current valuations rise because investors expect continued growth and are willing to pay more today…
S&P 500 Index Around First Cut Following Easing Cycle Pauses of Six Months or More Historically, when the Fed resumes rate cuts after holding steady for at least six months, U.S. stocks often post strong…
S&P 500 Cash Spending Relative to Cash Flows Many S&P 500 companies devote substantial cash flow to stock buybacks, a practice that benefits shareholders in the short term but sparks concerns about favoring short-term gains…
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. A 0.5% decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) in August 2025 indicates an ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activity. Image: The Conference Board