Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. This cautious optimism is driven by easing trade barriers and improved financial conditions but remains…
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds have near-record equity exposure by historical standards, sitting at the 97th percentile, which reflects strong confidence in the equity market risk environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Company Insider Buy-Sell Ratio Insider buying has recently dried up, with insider purchases falling behind insider sales by the most since July 2024—this may reflect either executive caution or opportunistic profit-taking. Image: Bloomberg
Median Excess Return vs. S&P 500 on Day After Earnings Report Strong earnings surprises boosted U.S. stocks in 2Q, but with already high expectations entering the quarter, the price reaction was somewhat limited compared to…
S&P 500 Quarterly Margin Growth in the high-margin tech sector, economies of scale, network effects, and supportive financial and regulatory environments—key structural shifts—have pushed the S&P 500’s profit margins to nearly a four-year high. Image:…
Returns for Major Global Financial Assets The S&P 500 index rose 2.17% in July, which has historically been the best month in post-election years and over the past two decades. Image: Deutsche Bank
Market Implied Probability of a Fed Cut The odds of a September Fed rate cut have soared—current market pricing now suggests a very high probability after deeply disappointing U.S. labor market data. Image: TS Lombard
Most Shorted Stocks Relative to Russell 3000 Heavily shorted stocks generally underperform the broader market over the long term, but in 2025, they significantly outperformed, driven primarily by aggressive short covering. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…
Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales U.S. real retail sales and consumer confidence trends indicate cautious and subdued consumer spending growth, which has historically been linked to an increased risk of recession. Image: Real Investment…
S&P 500 – Hedge Funds vs. Retail Investors The contrast between hedge funds taking short positions and retail investors being long is often seen as a warning of potential equity market weakness over the next…
S&P 500 Cyclical-Adjusted P/E Ratio vs. Net Private Foreign Inflows to U.S. Equities If foreign capital inflows weaken or reverse, U.S. stock valuations could come under downward pressure as investors reassess risk amid high prices…