Average Forward S&P 500 Returns Following Large Declines in U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator When the GS sentiment indicator reaches such a low level, the S&P 500 typically delivers an average forward two-week return of approximately…
Two-day Performance for the S&P 500 The two-day decline of 10.5% in the S&P 500 last Thursday and Friday marked its fifth-worst drop since World War II. The turmoil is likely to persist as long…
S&P 500 10% Drop in Two Days A 10% drop in the S&P 500 over two days is unusual, but history shows that sharp declines are often followed by strong recoveries, giving investors reason for…
Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions Historically, recessions since World War II have caused a median 13% decline in S&P 500 EPS, often leading to substantial index losses.…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The “Liberation Day” effect has set equity markets free—free to plummet, that is! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎
Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer…
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX High-yield credit spreads have widened by over 150bps from their 17-year lows, signaling growing financial stress. While rising credit spreads have often been a precursor to recessions, they…
S&P 500 Annualized 10-Year Total Return Forecasts Goldman Sachs forecasts a 3% average annualized total return for the S&P 500 over the next decade. This projection is notably lower than historical averages, driven by worries…
Large U.S. Tax Hikes Trump’s tariffs represent the most significant U.S. tax increase since 1968, raising widespread concerns about their long-term effects on the economy. Image: J.P. Morgan
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day As the S&P 500 tumbles 9.08% this week, bears are popping champagne, and bulls are asking, “Is there even a floor anymore?” Have a Great Weekend, Everyone! 😎
S&P 500 Profit Margin – Operating Earnings/Sales Structural changes in the market—such as the rise of high-margin sectors like technology, economies of scale, and favorable financial conditions for large-cap firms—have driven elevated profit margins in…