Effective vs. Statutory U.S. Tariff Rates While statutory tariff rates have jumped following swift policy changes, the effective tariff rate—the actual rate paid on imports—lags because of delayed enforcement, stockpiling, shifting trade routes, and ongoing…
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Amid trade-related uncertainty and tariffs weighing on U.S. growth and investor sentiment, Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. dollar to decline further, potentially providing a tailwind for mega-cap tech stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs…
U.S. Effective Tariff Rate A 19% rise in the effective U.S. tariff rate would significantly slow economic growth and sharply increase recession risk, with broad spillover effects on inflation, employment, and overall business confidence. Image:…
U.S. Equities – 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio and Share Prices Market optimism is fueled by hopes of resolving trade and geopolitical risks, but high S&P 500 valuations increase vulnerability. Without resolution or robust earnings growth,…
S&P 500, as Reported EPS and Forecast Analysts currently do not anticipate an outright profit downturn for corporate America, but compelling reasons suggest that earnings growth may slow, particularly due to the impact of tariffs.…
Share of U.S. Corporate Profits from Foreign Markets Foreign markets account for 13% of US corporate profits, while emerging markets contribute 4%. Yet, trade uncertainties and recent tariffs may threaten these contributions moving forward. Image:…
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $66 per barrel in the second half of 2025, with a subsequent decline to an annual average of $56 per…
Monthly Number of U.S. IPOs and S&P 500 The IPO market’s rebound in 2025 is a clear signal of renewed risk appetite and a progressing market cycle, with investors showing strong demand for new equity…
Inflation – U.S. CPI Deviation from Consensus A series of lower-than-expected inflation readings gives the administration greater economic leeway to pursue higher tariffs, driven by the (possibly mistaken) belief that U.S. consumers will be largely…
S&P 500 – Share of Sales Derived from Outside United States The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants are more exposed to global trade risks than the rest of the S&P 500, as 49% of their revenue…
Changes in Financial Conditions Looser U.S. financial conditions over the past three months are poised to reinforce two central pillars of economic growth: consumer spending and business investment. This is likely to benefit the U.S.…