Distribution of 1-Year S&P 500 Returns in Non-Recession Years Double‑digit losses are a rarity outside recessions, just 5% of the time. But when growth kicks in, the S&P 500 usually surges, notching double-digit gains nearly…
MSCI Equity Indexes, Total Return in US$ America’s equity outperformance topped out in 2022. U.S. growth still looks solid, but lofty valuations suggest tougher performance ahead, arguing for a more balanced global allocation in 2026.…
OECD G20 Composite Leading Indicator The OECD’s global leading indicator is running above trend and gaining momentum, signaling a pickup in the global growth cycle that has historically coincided with stronger risk-asset performance over government…
S&P 500 Annual Performance Based On What The First Five Days Do A bullish start to the year for the S&P 500 lifts investor spirits. When the index is up more than 1% in the…
S&P 500 Seasonality While seasonality in the S&P 500 always tells a story, midterm years rank as the weakest in the four-year presidential cycle but still deliver positive returns more often than not. Image: Goldman…
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Bear Markets and Corrections U.S. stocks have a history of pushing higher toward bull market peaks before eventually pulling back. In such periods, corrections tend to be brief, with rebounds…
S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates Optimism for 2026 earnings remains high after years of market gains and profit growth, but history shows confidence tends to waver once forecasts meet reality. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Annual Performance Based How the Santa Claus Rally Does A missing Santa Claus rally is rarely good news. Since 1950, years that skipped the festive lift have averaged only 6.1% gains. For bulls,…
S&P 500 Positioning Indicator With U.S. equity positioning largely neutral, there’s room for investors to lean back into risk. Market conditions remain supportive for risk-on moves. Image: TS Lombard
Equity Net Long Positioning – Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers Net Future Positions Leveraged funds and asset managers aren’t back to their peak long bets in U.S. stock futures, and with growth resilient, easier policy,…
S&P 500 Index Returns and Santa Claus Rally Santa Claus skipped Wall Street this year, and for the bulls, that’s often a warning the new year may bring choppier trading. Will this time be any…