Commodities Ex-Gold vs. Gold When the commodities (ex-gold) to gold ratio falls to an extreme low and then turns upward, it has historically signaled the beginning of major cyclical bull markets in commodities. Image: Topdown…
S&P 500 Average Return After a Down Day The year 2025 stands out for the S&P 500, especially because of its resilience following daily declines. Since January, it has rebounded by an average of 0.32%…
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons During earnings season, the S&P 500 usually rallies, delivering a median return of 2.0% in the first four weeks, fueled by positive earnings surprises that strengthen investor confidence. Image:…
S&P 500 and Number of Days Above 20-Day Moving Average While the S&P 500’s extended period above its 20-day moving average signals strong momentum, historical patterns and technical indicators point to a potential pullback or…
Distribution of Strategist Forecats for S&P 500 Year-End 2025 Index Level Goldman Sachs’ 6600 year-end target for the S&P 500 reflects a confident view on the market’s trajectory, driven by expected Fed easing and strong…
Valuation – Magnificent Seven Forward P/E The Magnificent 7 stocks continue to trade at a premium compared to the rest of the S&P 500. However, this premium has narrowed in 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Average Strategist Year-End S&P 500 Forecast Despite trade-related uncertainties, Wall Street’s leading firms remain confident in the S&P 500’s further gains through 2025, driven by strong corporate earnings, operational resilience, and accommodative monetary policy prospects.…
S&P 500 and NAAIM Index Above 97 Active investment managers are notorious for buying equities near market tops and selling near market bottoms. Last week, their equity allocation surged to 99.30, a level typically seen…
S&P 500 Returns After New All-Time Highs Since 1990, despite periods of volatility, the S&P 500 has typically continued rising after new all-time highs, with a median 12-month gain of 13.5% and positive returns more…
Market Sentiment – Levkovich Index The Levkovich Index, or Panic/Euphoria Model, is currently at “euphoria,” indicating strong investor optimism. This often serves as a contrarian signal that equities may face downward pressure over the next…
S&P 500 Performance After a >10% Quarter Since 1950, when a quarter’s return exceeds 10%, the next quarter typically performs better than average—gaining 4.7% on average compared to the overall average of 2.3%, and posting…