U.S. Payrolls and Recessions U.S. payroll growth rarely dips this low without a recession. It slowed sharply in late 2025, but analysts expect a rebound this year as productivity gains, Fed rate cuts, and fiscal…

S&P 500 – U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past 22 Presidents Nearly a year into Trump’s presidency, the S&P 500 has surged more than 16%, shaking off tariff headwinds. Bulls are smiling, betting on robust…

Top-Down Estimates of Earnings per Share Growth (S&P 500, STOXX 600, TOPIX, MXAPJ) After years of rallies fueled by soaring multiples, especially in tech and AI sectors, 2026 could see fundamentals take the lead. Image:…

U.S. Financial Sector’s Profit vs. Labour Demand With so much of finance built on information processing, the sector may soon stand as the clearest example of how AI can lift earnings without lifting headcount. Image:…

Silver to Oil Ratio Silver’s rally has gone so far that an ounce can now buy a barrel of oil. It’s a rare moment that may not last if crude recovers or silver takes a…

Performance for Gold Gold often starts the year strong, with January usually one of its best months as post-holiday portfolio adjustments and fresh investment flows boost demand. Image: Deutsche Bank

5-Year Turnover of S&P 500 Constituents In a typical five-year stretch, about 20% of S&P 500 members turn over, a reminder of how tough it is to stay in the game for the long haul.…

Components of S&P 500 Total Return Corporate profits carried much of the load for the S&P 500 in 2025, powering most of the index’s gains. In 2026, earnings look set to stay behind the wheel,…

S&P 500 – Which Will Perform Best in 2026? More portfolio managers see the “S&P 493” gaining ground on the Magnificent 7 this year, with fundamentals improving and valuation spreads closing amid worries over index…

Distribution of 1-Year S&P 500 Returns in Non-Recession Years Double‑digit losses are a rarity outside recessions, just 5% of the time. But when growth kicks in, the S&P 500 usually surges, notching double-digit gains nearly…

MSCI Equity Indexes, Total Return in US$ America’s equity outperformance topped out in 2022. U.S. growth still looks solid, but lofty valuations suggest tougher performance ahead, arguing for a more balanced global allocation in 2026.…