Ownership of the U.S. Equity Market U.S. households hold 40% of the U.S. equity market. That sounds like broad ownership. In reality, nearly 90% of that stake is held by the wealthiest 10%. Image: Goldman…

Nasdaq 100 Index Contribution in Years of +10-25% When the Nasdaq‑100 rises +10-25% in a year, the gains are usually driven by just three stocks. That is the nature of cap‑weighted indices. Narrow breadth isn’t…

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change With the ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 earnings growth moving hand in hand, either ISM climbs into the high 50s as the cycle…

Hyperscaler Year/Year Cash Spending Growth Hyperscalers are ramping up AI spending, leaving less capacity for buybacks and dividends. The trade-off is weaker near-term payouts in exchange for longer-term upside. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

YoY Growth in S&P 500 Cash Use S&P 500 companies are shifting cash to capex, led by AI, while buybacks stall. The result may be weaker EPS support and a thinner cushion for stock prices.…

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields vs. New Fed Chair 10-year U.S. Treasury yields often push higher in the first six months after a new Fed chair takes office, as markets adjust to a new policy regime.…

S&P 500 Performance After Six Week Wins Streaks Up >10% Six weeks up and more than 10% higher. Historically, that combination has been a tailwind for U.S. stocks, delivering average 12-month returns of 17.1% since…

S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons During earnings season, the S&P 500 typically rallies, posting a median gain of 2% over the first four weeks. This time, the index is up nearly four times that…

Performance vs. S&P 500 by Uses of Cash U.S. companies that return the most cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks have outperformed the S&P 500 since 1992. The outperformance usually reflects stronger fundamentals and…

S&P 500 Earnings Growth – Consensus vs. Historical Norms Historically, S&P 500 earnings have risen 6.5% annually. The 18.6% call for 2026 is more than twice that rate, and forecasts for 2027 still around 16%.…

S&P 500 Valuation – Shiller CAPE Ratio Shiller CAPE puts U.S. stocks back in the stratosphere, great on the way up, unforgiving on the way down. From these levels, history argues for lower returns and…