MOVE Index vs. U.S. 10-Year Note Unlike in 2022, U.S. 10-year yields are higher year to date, but rate volatility has stayed contained. Implied and realized volatility remain compressed even as inflation risks and Fed…
Median Single Stock Short Interest Within S&P 500 Index Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock is elevated, raising the odds of short squeezes. The rise reflects hedging activity rather than a wave of…
U.S. Equity Issuance U.S. equity issuance has been strengthening since 2023, and may accelerate further in coming months if the anticipated wave of mega-IPOs materializes. The question is whether the market has the appetite to…
Probability of U.S. Recession The one-year U.S. recession probability implied by the S&P 500 and BBB spread has eased, pointing to a more constructive market tone as fears of near-term economic stress fade. Image: J.P.…
S&P 500 Performance After >10% April/May Returns The S&P 500 surged 16.1% in April and May, the second-best performance on record. History suggests momentum tends to carry. In prior double-digit gains, June has always been…
S&P 500 Return During June June has a reputation for weakness in midterm years, but the last decade tells a different story: it closed higher in 9 out of 10 years, posting a median gain…
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 The S&P 500’s reaction to the Middle East conflict has shifted from one of the weakest after a geopolitical shock to one of the strongest, as investors…
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Treasuries The S&P 500 looks stretched against Treasuries, trading over one standard deviation rich on a year-on-year basis and in the 95th percentile of the past 50 years. A return to…
Average Percentile Rank for U.S. Equity Market Concentration, Valuation, and Magnitude of Rally U.S. equities are flashing familiar signs: rich valuations, heavy concentration, and outsized recent returns. This is less a signal that a crash…
The IPO Fade – % Change from Day-One Peak by Cohort Buying into the SpaceX IPO is a bet on hype as much as fundamentals, and history points to a volatile debut. Early investors should…
S&P 500 Performance After Day 100 Is Up >9% YTD Momentum, once built, rarely fades quickly. When the S&P 500 is up more than 9% by day 100, the rest of the year has historically…