Risk Parity Model Portfolio Weights In risk-parity strategies, the current equity allocation is at the 8th percentile—well below the median—reflecting a preference for safer assets despite the ongoing equity rally. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
New Bull Markets Start (20% Off Bear Lows or Near Bear Lows) and What Happened Next for the S&P 500 Bulls have reason to be optimistic, as the S&P 500’s rally of over 20% from…
S&P 500 Annual Buybacks Goldman Sachs forecasts that S&P 500 share buybacks will surpass $1 trillion in 2025 for the first time, a milestone expected to provide a significant tailwind for U.S. equities. Image: Goldman…
Earnings Sentiment Current earnings sentiment is on an upward trajectory, with multiple indicators highlighting robust corporate performance and the potential for continued market growth. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Index The current rally is underpinned by solid employment data and improving trade sentiment. If the S&P 500 can sustain levels above 6,000, the only major resistance ahead is the all-time high near…
Return – S&P 500 Index Corrections of 10%-15% History shows that sharp early-year declines in the S&P 500—like those in 2009, 2020, and now 2025—often set the stage for powerful rebounds and strong year-end gains.…
U.S. NonFarm Employment Annual Growth The YOY job growth rate of 1.1% is a warning sign, as similar levels have coincided with periods just before or during recessions since 1950, supporting the case for the…
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the U.S. equity risk premium at historically low levels, equity investors face a more challenging environment, as the risk-reward trade-off is less attractive than before. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Debt Held by Public as Share of GDP Rising U.S. federal debt could lead to higher interest payments, reduced investment and growth, fewer jobs, lower wages, and less flexibility for the government to respond…
MSCI All-Country World Index and RSI (14) Signs of overheating are emerging in global stocks, with technical and flow indicators nearing thresholds that have previously triggered sell signals. Image: Bloomberg
Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations While high CAPE ratios can persist in markets for years, history suggests these elevated valuations often precede eras of subdued stock returns. Image: Real Investment Advice