Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within one year is modestly elevated but not extremely high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 – U.S. Broad Market Net Forward Profit Margin Elevated profit margins in the U.S. broad market, which continue to show forward-looking expansion, point to underlying economic resilience and do not align with the…

Top 10 Mega Cap Stocks as % of S&P 500 The growing dominance of the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 has raised concerns about whether the index still provides sufficient diversification, given the…

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple The five largest S&P 500 stocks are trading well above their historical valuation norms—reflecting strong investor confidence in their earnings power and growth prospects—yet their valuations remain below…

S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish, slashing their net long positions in major U.S. equity index futures—E-mini S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P Midcap, and Russell 2000—to levels not seen…

Gold Spot Price and Russell 3000 Gold Miners Subindustry Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold over the next 12 months, projecting a 14% rise driven by central bank demand and anticipated rate cuts, with even…

S&P 500 vs. 20+-Year U.S. Treasuries U.S. stocks continue to outperform bonds in an ongoing post-pandemic risk-on rally, despite periods of volatility. Market sentiment remains tilted toward risk assets. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Labor Market – Job Openings per Unemployed Worker The ratio of U.S. job openings to unemployed workers below 1 indicates labor market weakness, with policy uncertainty and slowing demand increasing the likelihood of a…

Oil Prices and Events Higher oil prices function like a tax, reducing disposable income and increasing business costs, which can slow growth or cause recessions. However, these spikes are typically brief as demand falls and…

Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors Investor allocation to equities has reached an all-time high, driven by retail enthusiasm and strong performance. However, rising valuations and concentrated leadership…

Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio with 10-Year Total Returns Valuations don’t matter—until they do. Over the past 150 years, high valuations have been a sign of poor forward returns, with negative real returns over…