S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Level Expectations U.S. equities face challenges as high valuations heighten the need for strong earnings and guidance. Disappointing results may pressure stock prices, risking recent gains unless corporate earnings justify these…
Gold Seasonality Gold benefits from strong seasonal and technical momentum, supported by central bank demand, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks, positioning it for a likely significant price breakout in the coming months. Image: Renaissance Macro…
Two-Year Rolling Change in the Fed Funds Rate Current rate cut expectations, as priced in by fed funds futures, are consistent with a recession scenario. However, market risk indicators and recent Fed communications suggest this…
S&P 500/MSCI World and U.S. Dollar Trade-Weighted Index The renewed relative strength and attractiveness of U.S. assets amid global uncertainty and monetary policy differentials have played a central role in driving the U.S. dollar’s recent…
S&P 500 Performance After 60 Days Above the 20-Day Moving Average The S&P 500, after closing above its 20-day moving average for 60 straight days, has historically maintained its upward momentum, with median 12-month gains…
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Yield Gap With the S&P 500 equity risk premium at historically low levels, the current investment landscape presents significant challenges for equity investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Earnings Expectations Analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth of 9.3% in 2025 and 14.0% in 2026. These consensus forecasts reflect a robust expected acceleration in profit growth, particularly moving from 2025 into 2026.…
S&P 500 Foreign Revenues by Sector S&P 500 companies derive 28% of their total revenues from foreign markets — a figure that has remained relatively stable in recent years. The remaining 72% is generated domestically…
Effective vs. Statutory U.S. Tariff Rates While statutory tariff rates have jumped following swift policy changes, the effective tariff rate—the actual rate paid on imports—lags because of delayed enforcement, stockpiling, shifting trade routes, and ongoing…
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Amid trade-related uncertainty and tariffs weighing on U.S. growth and investor sentiment, Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. dollar to decline further, potentially providing a tailwind for mega-cap tech stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs…
U.S. Effective Tariff Rate A 19% rise in the effective U.S. tariff rate would significantly slow economic growth and sharply increase recession risk, with broad spillover effects on inflation, employment, and overall business confidence. Image:…