Brent Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs has lifted its 2026 oil price forecast, now seeing Brent crude averaging $85 a barrel and WTI at $79, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets…

S&P 500 Returns After 200 Days or More Above the 200-Day MA End Losing the 200-day moving average after staying above it for 200 days or more has usually meant a period of consolidation rather…

Aggregate U.S. Dollar Position, Non-Commercial Traders Rising Middle East tensions and a jump in energy prices have pushed speculators back into the U.S. dollar, marking their first net-long position of the year. No surprise there:…

Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets are quick to price in fear. The S&P 500 usually dips when conflict erupts, but it often manages to recover its losses as long as demand and earnings…

Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Markets have sharply repriced the Fed path. Investors shouldn’t see “no rate cuts before 2027”, but they should recognize that the hurdle for…

Hyperscalers Realized Year/Year Growth – Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow While hyperscalers are still delivering steady earnings, their free cash flow growth has sharply cooled, and that gap could prove costly, since stock performance has…

U.S. Equities and Wars Some major geopolitical events have knocked U.S. stocks down 15% or more before. Is this time different? For now, markets look like they’re pricing in hope, not fear. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

S&P 500 Futures vs. Brent Crude Oil S&P 500 futures and Brent crude oil have moved in tandem lately, but the correlation has softened this week. Are markets breaking away from oil prices? Maybe investors…

VIX vs. S&P 500 Compared with past oil shocks, the S&P 500’s drop looks measured. Investors seem braced for short-term turbulence rather than a structural shift in sentiment. The pullback feels more like caution than…

Fed Funds Rate vs. Gasoline Price / Core CPI When gasoline prices rise faster than inflation and move in step with growth, the Fed tends to lift rates. But what is the determining factor this…

Bloomberg Dollar Index One-Month Risk Reversals Currency markets are turning defensive, as demand for dollar upside and protection against violent swings gains pace amid Middle East tensions. Few things spook investors like uncertainty, and the…