S&P 500 Valuations The U.S. market looks cyclically overheated. Valuation composites show stretched conditions, raising the risk of a sharp correction. So far, however, recession signals remain absent. Image: Topdown Charts

After Narrow Market Leadership: Drawdowns in the Leading Sector Across decades, concentrated leadership has signaled fragile market health: when only a few sectors drive gains, weakening breadth tends to precede sharp declines. Image: Real Investment…

S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm years have a reputation for shaky markets. History tells a different story in second presidential terms, with U.S. stocks averaging an 8.8% gain since…

U.S. ETF and Mutual Fund Flows Over the past year, U.S. investors have favored bonds and money market funds over riskier equities, with geopolitical tensions hanging over markets and interest rates staying elevated. Image: Goldman…

Citi Economic Surprises The U.S. economy has held up better than its peers since the Middle East conflict escalated, as growth prospects elsewhere have dimmed, pushing investors toward the U.S. as the steadier bet. Image:…

Average Global Equities Returns Depending on Absolute Moves in U.S. 10-Year Yieldss Big moves in bond yields rarely go unnoticed by equities. A rapid rise in yields can act as a red flag for stocks,…

1-Month Rolling Correlation of 10-Year UST Yield Change and S&P 500 Returns Since the start of the Middle East conflict, U.S. Treasuries have struggled to play their traditional diversification role. The one-month rolling correlation between…

Valuation – The Buffett Indicator The Buffett Indicator, which compares U.S. market capitalization to GDP, hit a fresh high. It’s not a crash signal, but it raises a flag. At these levels, history suggests weaker…

Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no fixed relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation changes over time, driven by inflation dynamics, rate expectations,…

U.S. Net Margin Debt U.S. margin debt is hovering near record highs. That level of borrowing reflects strong risk appetite, but it also leaves the market more exposed to sharp pullbacks if stocks slide and…

Cyclical Minus Defensive Sectors Positioning At the 52nd percentile, sector positioning shows a market in balance, with no meaningful shift toward either cyclicals or defensives, pointing to a lack of strong conviction. Image: Deutsche Bank…