S&P 500 Cycle Composite The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a less bullish period of the year, with 2025 so far following typical seasonal patterns: early strength, mid-year volatility, and a potential year-end rally.…

Return on Equity (ROE) : S&P 500 vs. MSCI World ex. U.S. U.S. stocks have significantly outperformed their global peers in recent years, driven by the superior return-on-equity of American companies—a key factor reinforcing the…

Foreign Revenues of S&P 500 Companies While S&P 500 companies are broadly exposed to global markets, the majority of their sales—and thus, much of their operational and macroeconomic risk—remains tied to the U.S. economy. Image:…

Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index Investor sentiment has rebounded sharply since April’s market turmoil, buoyed by trade-related optimism, but it has not reached the excessive bullishness that usually signals a market peak. Image:…

Share of Tariff Cost Burden While the importer of record pays the tariff legally, the economic cost of tariffs is distributed across U.S. consumers, U.S. businesses that rely on imports, and foreign exporters. Image: Goldman…

International vs. Domestic Exposure Export-oriented U.S. stocks surged after the tariff pause announcement, reflecting growing investor optimism over easing trade tensions—though potential tariff policy changes remain key factors to watch. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Aggregate Earnings Beat A 5% earnings beat reflects the typical surprises seen in past quarters and suggests that actual reported earnings will modestly exceed consensus estimates, consistent with the historical pattern of positive…

Evolution of Earnings Consensus After an initial wave of downward revisions, Q2 2025 consensus earnings estimates have stabilized and remained relatively flat over the past six weeks, with no significant cuts reported recently. Image: Deutsche…

S&P 500 Annual Price Returns The S&P 500’s performance in 2025 so far aligns with median historical gains seen during non-recessionary periods. The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, driven by moderate earnings growth and supportive…

S&P 500 Performance Based on Sector-Level Strength Long-term S&P 500 gains have historically followed periods of either broad market participation, where over eight sectors trade above their 200-day moving average, or extreme oversold conditions, with…

Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Consensus Despite being larger than average, the recent -4% consensus EPS cut is not unprecedented and mirrors past adjustments during periods of heightened uncertainty such as tariff announcements or…