S&P 500 Returns when New Highs Are Made in August, September, and October History is on the bulls’ side: whenever the S&P 500 has hit new highs in August, September, and October, the fourth quarter…

Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in…

S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October Bulls welcome October’s new highs, knowing the fourth quarter has been kind: markets have risen more than 90% of the time, with average gains of…

Gold ETF Holdings The surge in Western gold ETF holdings tells a story of fragile nerves and strong convictions—uncertain macro signals, anticipated rate cuts, and a search for safety pushing both private investors and central…

Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio For a while, valuations look irrelevant—until they dictate everything. Over the past 150 years, stretched multiples have reliably led to leaner returns, with the last three peaks leaving investors…

S&P 500 Earnings Unlike some past bull runs, this year’s rally in U.S. stocks has been driven more by solid earnings growth than by rising valuation multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Inflation – Fed Funds Rate and CPI With the Fed funds rate still running well above inflation, policy looks overly tight—and investors are betting on deeper rate cuts to follow. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Returns After The Top 15 September Returns Ever Bears expecting a rough September were left flat-footed. Instead, the S&P 500 posted its 14th-strongest monthly rally since 1950, giving bulls fresh reason to hope…

Approximate Lifespan of Historical Bubbles, from Run-Up to Peak Financial bubbles rarely pop overnight. They typically build for years, fueled by speculative mania, until late-arriving investors rush in at the top—only to see their gains…

U.S. Government Shutdowns vs. the S&P 500 For all the political drama, U.S. markets have historically treated government shutdowns as little more than noise, with brief volatility giving way to quick rebounds. Image: Bloomberg

Bar & Coin Demand and Real Gold Price As the gold price rises in real terms, bar and coin buying tends to rise, with inflation fears and economic clouds fueling the rush. Image: Deutsche Bank