Average 1-Day Price Reaction to Reported Sales and EPS This season, U.S. stocks are reacting with amplified negative price movements to Q2 earnings misses compared to typical patterns, due to elevated market expectations, valuation concerns,…
Global Risk Sentiment Indicators Sentiment indicators suggest a “Goldilocks” scenario for risk appetite—investors are moderately optimistic, cautiously taking on risk without exuberance. Image: TS Lombard
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Rising analysts’ sentiment on S&P 500 earnings reflects strong corporate results, positive surprises, and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, all pointing to potential near-term…
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Stoxx Europe 600 The April 2025 correction caused short-term volatility and uncertainty but created a buying opportunity in U.S. growth and tech stocks, resetting market sentiment and driving a strong…
Corporate America’s Announced Buybacks July’s record $166 billion in share repurchases played a key role in driving an annual buyback pace that may exceed $1 trillion in 2025, reflecting solid corporate confidence and return-of-capital strategies.…
U.S. Household Ownership of Stocks, % of Total Assets An elevated equity exposure among U.S. households does not necessarily signal an imminent market downturn, but it underscores the importance of cautious investment strategies and prudent…
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. This cautious optimism is driven by easing trade barriers and improved financial conditions but remains…
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds have near-record equity exposure by historical standards, sitting at the 97th percentile, which reflects strong confidence in the equity market risk environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Company Insider Buy-Sell Ratio Insider buying has recently dried up, with insider purchases falling behind insider sales by the most since July 2024—this may reflect either executive caution or opportunistic profit-taking. Image: Bloomberg
Median Excess Return vs. S&P 500 on Day After Earnings Report Strong earnings surprises boosted U.S. stocks in 2Q, but with already high expectations entering the quarter, the price reaction was somewhat limited compared to…
S&P 500 Quarterly Margin Growth in the high-margin tech sector, economies of scale, network effects, and supportive financial and regulatory environments—key structural shifts—have pushed the S&P 500’s profit margins to nearly a four-year high. Image:…