U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield vs. Fed Funds The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is below the fed funds rate, signals that monetary policy is restrictive. It also implies the Fed is about 80 basis…

Annual S&P 500 Net Buyback Payout Ratio Over the past decade, the buyback payout ratio in the S&P 500 has remained high and relatively steady, with buybacks serving as a primary way of delivering value…

Breadth Thrusts and S&P 500 The ongoing Breadth Thrust Regime offers a powerful bullish signal, indicating favorable conditions for U.S. equities until at least May 2026, particularly with the S&P 500 reaching new highs. Image:…

Gold Net Long Managed Money on COMEX Rising speculative positioning in gold signals increased bullishness but also raises the risk of a short-term pullback, as prices often correct after speculative positions become excessively extended. Image:…

Russell 2000 Net Futures Contracts Asset managers and leveraged funds hold large net short positions in Russell 2000 futures despite recent small-cap gains, creating conditions for potential short covering that could trigger further upward momentum…

Nasdaq 100 Futures Positioning Despite recent profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain heavily net long in Nasdaq 100 futures, suggesting continued confidence in technology and growth stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Fed Funds Rate Scenario Analysis In its baseline scenario, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates from 4.3% to 3.1% by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Returns After Fed Interest Rate Cuts Resume When the Fed delivered just one or two rate cuts after pausing—seen in four different cycles—the U.S. economy was typically strong, with cyclical sectors such as…

S&P 500 Performance After 30% Rallies in Five Months A rally of over 30% in just five months is an exceptionally rare occurrence for the S&P 500, having happened only five times since 1950. In…

U.S. Sectors With Rising EPS Rising EPS across almost all major U.S. sectors is a significant driver of equity market strength and investor confidence, as it signals strong corporate profitability and growth potential. Image: TS…

S&P 500 Ratio to Its 200-DMA and AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread Historically, very low investor sentiment has not only signaled caution but also suggested further upside in U.S. equities, offering opportunities for…