S&P 500 Total Returns After Crossing Into the 9th and 10th Deciles of Valuation U.S. equities have a history of pushing higher despite lofty valuations. While nervous talk of a tech bubble persists, analysts point…
S&P 500 Index Average Intra-Year Drawdown During Midterm Elections Midterm years often shake confidence on Wall Street. The S&P 500 usually slides 18% on average at some point during the year, but those downturns tend…
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Lower tariff rates and a dovish shift at the Fed could set the stage for rate cuts below 3.5% by year‑end, assuming inflation keeps drifting toward target and…
Global Stocks – MSCI AC World Local Index Citigroup strategists are betting on a 10% rise in global equities this year, backed by a gentle economic slowdown, stronger earnings forecasts, and fresh AI tailwinds. Image:…
U.S. M2 Money Creation by Year All signs point to a 2026 liquidity wave: bigger money funds, solid bank credit, and $40 billion a month from the Fed in T‑bill buys. That could juice reserves, pump…
U.S. Corporate Profits as % of Real GDP U.S. corporate profits are running far ahead of real economy growth, reaching the widest gap on record. History shows that such divergences rarely last once markets face…
Magnificent Seven Stocks – Projected Gain or Decline Over the Next 12 Months Analysts expect the Magnificent 7 to remain the main engine of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026, with forecasts calling for solid…
U.S. Payrolls and Recessions U.S. payroll growth rarely dips this low without a recession. It slowed sharply in late 2025, but analysts expect a rebound this year as productivity gains, Fed rate cuts, and fiscal…
S&P 500 – U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past 22 Presidents Nearly a year into Trump’s presidency, the S&P 500 has surged more than 16%, shaking off tariff headwinds. Bulls are smiling, betting on robust…
Top-Down Estimates of Earnings per Share Growth (S&P 500, STOXX 600, TOPIX, MXAPJ) After years of rallies fueled by soaring multiples, especially in tech and AI sectors, 2026 could see fundamentals take the lead. Image:…
U.S. Financial Sector’s Profit vs. Labour Demand With so much of finance built on information processing, the sector may soon stand as the clearest example of how AI can lift earnings without lifting headcount. Image:…