U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession.…
Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors are punishing U.S. sectors most exposed to AI‑driven automation, betting that vulnerable business models will struggle to keep pace, despite steady fundamentals. Automation’s shockwaves are reshaping entire sectors. Image:…
Congressional Budget Office Forecast of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The Congressional Budget Office sees the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edging higher over the next few years as swelling federal debt puts upward pressure on borrowing…
S&P 500 Four Month Range The S&P 500 has spent four months drifting in a tight range, the kind of calm that rarely lasts. Which way it breaks is anyone’s guess, but as traders like…
Estimated Wealth Effects on Annualized Real PCE Growth Should stocks stumble, the positive wealth effect supporting consumption may turn into a headwind during the second half of 2026. After all, consumer sentiment is definitely tied…
Share of Russell 3000 Firms Discussing Layoffs During Quarterly Earnings Calls You won’t hear much about layoffs on earnings calls these days, a hint that management still sees blue skies for growth. Talk of job…
Weight of TMT in the S&P 500 At 37% of S&P 500 earnings, Information Technology and Communication Services remain the market’s driving force, with the trend still pointing higher. Hard to bet against tech when…
S&P 500 Index Returns in February The S&P 500 tends to lose a bit of steam as February winds down, with the final days often trending softer. Nobody likes it, but few are really surprised. Image:…
Software Stocks (IGV) and Forward P/E The recent weakness in software stocks reflects a valuation de-rating rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Retail investors have been adding exposure on dips, even as institutional money stays cautious. Image:…
Volatility – VIX vs. VIXEQ Single-stock volatility is rising faster than the VIX as leadership rotates from tech toward energy names and companies tied to real assets. Volatility beneath the surface says more about market…
Impact of Tariff Policies on the Effective Tariff Rate The Supreme Court’s ruling on the IEEPA tariffs barely moves the needle: the change only trims the effective tariff increase since early 2025, from just over…