Median U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cuts Cycles Fed rate cuts usually pull short-term yields lower, but long Treasury bonds don’t always fall in line. Inflation expectations, shifting bets on future policy,…
S&P 500 Valuations vs. 6-Month Forward Returns Valuations can help frame long-term return expectations, but they rarely say much about what markets will do in the short run. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global Leading Indicator Leading indicators are turning higher, signaling a growing chance of a global cyclical upswing into the first half of 2026. Image: Bloomberg
Returns for S&P 500 by Sector Since the Launch of ChatGPT on November 30th 2022 The communication services and IT sectors have far outpaced the S&P 500 since ChatGPT’s launch three years ago, powered by…
Performance – Bloomberg U.S. 500 Ex Mag 7 Index vs. FTSE All-World Ex U.S. Index The AI boom remains a U.S. mega-cap story for now, leaving the global balance mostly untouched. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Returns in December if >5% YTD End of November in Year One of Presidential Cycle Bulls are in luck. Since 1945, whenever the S&P 500 was up more than 5% YTD by November’s…
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank sees U.S. growth staying strong through 2028, with core inflation easing toward the Fed’s 2% target and job markets holding firm. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge
Composition of Fed Liabilities with Projections With QT ending, the Fed will pivot to reserve management purchases of Treasury bills in early 2026. Goldman Sachs expects bank reserves to climb past $3 trillion by late…
S&P 500 December Returns The S&P 500 lost ground last December, but two red Decembers in a row are rare. That track record may give bulls hope for a Santa Claus rally and a strong…
Gold Positioning Rising long positions in gold over the past two weeks point to strengthening demand, a classic bullish sign that keeps the rally in play. Image: Bloomberg
Asset Class Flow The surge of capital into U.S. stock funds in 2025 was largely fueled by optimism around growth prospects, strong earnings, and heavy investments by tech and AI giants. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity…