Stocks – Will the “Magnificent Seven” Continue to Outperform this Year? 56% of JPM clients believe that the “Magnificent Seven” will continue to outperform the market this year, highlighting the significant level of confidence and…
U.S. Government Spending as % of GDP U.S. government spending as a share of GDP is expected to increase significantly over the next decade. This could potentially have substantial consequences for the long-term stability of…
Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Twitter Sentiment Index, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Despite strong economic performance, U.S. consumer confidence has shown improvements but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that the recovery process…
S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy…
U.S. Bank Reserves as a Percent of GDP As bank reserves relative to GDP gradually return to normal levels, they will no longer contribute to the upward momentum of equity valuation multiples. Image: Morgan Stanley…
Buybacks – Share of S&P 1500 Companies Paying a Dividend or Repurchasing Stock Over the years, the share of S&P 1500 companies engaging in share repurchases has surged. In 1995, only 3% participated, while in…
Consumer Confidence Composite and S&P 500 While confidence has increased alongside the market rally, the enthusiasm seen in the U.S. stock market appears to be detached from the main driver of the economy, which is…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value BofA’s macroeconomic framework indicates a fair value for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 4.1%. Image: BofA Global Research
Infrastructure Flows Infrastructure funds have seen their largest inflow since June 2022, signaling a positive trend for investors aiming for long-term returns and portfolio diversification. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928 The historical pattern of the VIX rising before U.S. elections and then rapidly plunging afterward can be attributed to increased uncertainty and investor fear leading up…