Inflation – Fed Funds Rate and CPI With the Fed funds rate still running well above inflation, policy looks overly tight—and investors are betting on deeper rate cuts to follow. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Returns After The Top 15 September Returns Ever Bears expecting a rough September were left flat-footed. Instead, the S&P 500 posted its 14th-strongest monthly rally since 1950, giving bulls fresh reason to hope…

Approximate Lifespan of Historical Bubbles, from Run-Up to Peak Financial bubbles rarely pop overnight. They typically build for years, fueled by speculative mania, until late-arriving investors rush in at the top—only to see their gains…

U.S. Government Shutdowns vs. the S&P 500 For all the political drama, U.S. markets have historically treated government shutdowns as little more than noise, with brief volatility giving way to quick rebounds. Image: Bloomberg

Bar & Coin Demand and Real Gold Price As the gold price rises in real terms, bar and coin buying tends to rise, with inflation fears and economic clouds fueling the rush. Image: Deutsche Bank

Valuation – S&P 500 P/E Ratio and Fed Chair Warnings on Stock Valuations Despite Powell acknowledging that U.S. equity prices look stretched, history suggests valuations alone rarely halt a rally—at least not in the short…

S&P 500 and Relative Strength Index (RSI) Right now, the 14-week RSI is nearing 70. When it previously climbed above 80, the S&P 500 saw an average 27% decline with an RSI lead time of…

Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally After a powerful rally, the S&P 500 looks stretched, and the odds of a near-term pullback—or at best, a sideways pause—are building. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Annual Average IPO Return During First Trading Day The average U.S. IPO in 2025 has popped 30% on debut, with 72% of the 46 listings this year finishing their first session in the green—a sign…

S&P 500 Performance Around Growth Score Peak U.S. equities tend to perform well on average following growth score peaks, particularly if there is no recession and policy easing occurs. In that backdrop, valuations can be…

S&P 500 Valuation Despite lofty valuations, the fuel behind U.S. stock market performance this year has been earnings growth, not multiple expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research