Peak to Trough in the S&P 500 Around Spikes in the Geopolitical Risk Index Most geopolitical shocks haven’t caused lasting market impacts. Oil tends to surge when tensions rise in the Middle East, gold gets…
U.S. vs. Rest of World – 12-Month Forward Earnings Per Share U.S. corporate earnings have led the pack in recent years, but overseas profits are finally closing the gap. That momentum shift could mark an…
Valuations – S&P 500 P/E vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) When manufacturing costs climb, equities usually feel it later. Higher input prices work their way into the S&P 500’s P/E ratio with…
U.S. Yield Curves The yield curve’s normalization following its 2022 inversion eased recession worries for now, but historical patterns still suggest caution post-uninversion. Image: Real Investment Advice
WTI Crude Oil and Recessions When oil prices surge, sometimes doubling, it’s often a red flag for the U.S. economy. History shows these jumps tend to foreshadow recessions, making crude a key gauge for investors…
Price Performance of Gold Before and After the Start of Armed Conflicts When conflict breaks out in the Middle East, gold typically shines as a tactical safe haven, with prices jumping as traders add a…
Effect of a 10% Increase in Oil Prices on Inflation A 10% rise in crude oil prices would add modestly to headline inflation over the year. But if higher prices persist, the inflation effect would…
S&P 500 Price Reaction to Previous Military Escalations The headlines may be dramatic, but the market impact is likely to be muted. U.S. equities wobble at first, then settle once investors refocus on fundamentals. In…
S&P 500 – Performance of Largest 10 Stocks vs. Next 40 Stocks The S&P 500’s top 10 giants are lagging the next 40 stocks this year, contributing to the cap-weighted index’s weak gains amid high…
S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events Major geopolitical shocks can rattle investors, but U.S. stocks have a long track record of bouncing back, with median six‑month gains over 5% since World…
S&P 1500 Software & Services Median Shorts Short bets on software stocks have climbed to their highest level since the GFC, even as many firms keep turning in solid revenue growth. That crowding could spark…