Historical Length of Recoveries and Subsequent Market Declines Every U.S. expansion since 1871 has hit a wall, and markets have stumbled hard each time. The current bull run, born out of the March 2020 lows,…
S&P 500 Annualized 10-Year Total Return Forecasts Goldman Sachs is calling for 6.5% annualized gains in the S&P 500 over the next ten years — not bad, but hardly without risk, given stretched valuations and…
Market Capitalization of the Largest Stock Relative to the 75th Percentile Stock U.S. stocks are more top-heavy than at any point in nearly a century, with mega-cap tech driving the charge. The dominance is juicing…
Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 30-Day Correlation Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has surged to multi-year highs, but as macro conditions shift and the crypto market matures, its link to traditional equities could start to loosen. Image:…
S&P 500 vs. Gold and S&P 500 vs. Bonds (Total Return) U.S. stocks look pricey next to bonds—but measured against gold, it’s not mania, it’s money insurance. Investors are hedging debasement and inflation, not chasing…
200-Day Correlation Between S&P 500 and Gold Spot Gold’s old reputation as a crisis hedge is looking dated. The metal is increasingly trading like a risk asset, tracking U.S. equities as a declining dollar and…
Rolling 90-Day Correlation Between the S&P 500 and U.S. IG Credit Spreads Credit and equities are back in sync: the 90‑day correlation between U.S. IG credit spreads and the S&P 500 has spiked, a sign…
Equities – 10-Year Forward Annualized Total Returns in Local Currency Despite historically high valuations that could cap gains, Goldman Sachs forecasts robust global equity returns, led by Emerging Markets and Asia, which are expected to…
CTAs Exposure to Gold CTAs have cut back on gold, but they’re still net long — the bulls aren’t giving up yet. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield With the S&P 500 equity risk premium slipping below zero, markets are flashing a warning: risk isn’t being rewarded anymore. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Share Buyback Announcements Bulls are right to smile: At $6–7 billion a day through year-end, U.S. corporate buybacks are the market’s invisible hand—lifting prices and muting every attempt at a selloff. Image: Goldman Sachs…