U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve and Recessions The U.S. 10Y-3M Treasury yield curve has been a reliable recession risk indicator, but every economic situation is unique and historical patterns may not repeat exactly. Image: BofA Global…
S&P 500 Performance After 9-Week Win Streaks Historically, 9-week win streaks tend to be bullish for U.S. stocks, with a median 12.4% increase in value seen a year later since 1950, giving investors good reason…
S&P 500 Valuations While high valuations can persist, investors should be aware of the potential for lower future returns when valuations remain elevated for an extended period. Image: Topdown Charts
Performance – U.S. vs. Global ex-U.S. Given U.S. equities near extreme peaks compared to global stocks, should long-term investors consider reallocating more of their portfolio to global ex-U.S. stocks instead of heavily investing in U.S.…
Investor Psychology Cycle When investor psychology is overly negative, it may indicate undervalued market prices, presenting buying opportunities for investors who are able to take a contrarian approach and invest when others are fearful. Image:…
January Barometer – S&P 500 Index Returns Historically, the average annual return of the S&P 500 index tends to experience a substantial decrease during periods when stocks encounter challenges in the month of January. Image:…
Performance – S&P 500 Equal Weighted / S&P 500 Market Cap Weighted Historically, when the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index reverses and outperforms the S&P 500 Index, it may be a good time to favor equities.…
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. 10-Year Bund Yield It is becoming more common for German bund yields to be below U.S. yields, which can be attributed to the difference in economic conditions and fiscal policies…
U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast According to Deutsche Bank, a mild recession in the United States may result in a modestly higher unemployment rate than what is anticipated by both consensus and the Federal Reserve. Image:…
S&P 500 – Average / Median Return by Month January typically emerges as one of the most favorable months for S&P 500 returns. However, February and March often experience a notable decline in returns, presenting…