U.S. Stock Market Concentration
U.S. Stock Market Concentration The U.S. stock market is as concentrated as it has been in decades, but history is full of similar moments, from the railroad boom of 1900 to the dominance of mega-caps…
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Chinese Stocks (iShares China Large-Cap ETF)
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Chinese Stocks (iShares China Large-Cap ETF) Since early 2024, Chinese stocks have shown significant outperformance relative to US stocks, amid policy support, tech advancements, and attractive valuations. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average Global Policy Rate
Average Global Policy Rate Global central banks moved decisively into rate‑cutting mode through 2025, with analysts expecting further, though more measured, easing in 2026, particularly in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price of Gold Forecast
Price of Gold Forecast Analyst forecasts for gold at the end of 2026 cluster near record highs, with most expecting bullion to gain about 7%. A slower climb than last year’s rally and with forecasts…
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and SLOOS
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and SLOOS With financial conditions easing and banks pulling back on loan tightening, the U.S. economy looks poised for stronger investment, hiring, and growth. But those tailwinds could reignite inflation if demand…
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, has cooled from a year ago but is still sitting close to the…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield U.S. Treasuries ended a stellar 2025, but few expect a repeat this year. Lower rates may offer some support, but heavy debt issuance, sticky inflation, and ongoing fiscal spending could keep…
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When US Treasury yields rise quickly, equity valuations usually fall hardest among high-growth, richly priced names. One risk for 2026 is a sudden…
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year Traders are sticking to expectations for two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, even as Fed projections reveal deep splits. The easing drive has lost some steam,…
S&P 500 Returns – U.S. Presidents That Made It Six Years In Office
S&P 500 Returns – U.S. Presidents That Made It Six Years In Office There’s fresh fuel for the 2026 bulls: the sixth year of a presidency has been pure upside for U.S. stocks, with average…
Global Debt Hits a Fresh Record
Global Debt Hits a Fresh Record Global debt keeps climbing, set to breach $350 trillion this year. A reminder that fiscal discipline and global coordination remain crucial to preventing financial shocks. Image: International Monetary Fund