Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Consensus Excluding the one-offs, consensus estimates for the fourth quarter of 2023 have experienced just a slightly more pronounced reduction compared to previous periods, which can be seen as…
U.S. Recession and Fed Hiking Cycle Based on the lags between rate hikes and previous cycles, the likelihood of a recession in the United States remains a topic of discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 and U.S. IPO Activity The ongoing increase in IPO activity in the United States suggests a potentially bullish medium-term outlook. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Dollar Strength vs. Frequency of Reported Revenue Beats A weaker U.S. dollar is correlated with more revenue beats, reflecting the potential benefits of currency depreciation on corporate financial outcomes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Since the Global Financial Crisis, there have been only two other occasions where the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has experienced such a rapid decline, underscoring the exceptional nature of the current…
Equity – Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers Net Future Positions Leveraged funds and asset managers remain very net long S&P 500 futures, suggesting their confidence in the upward trajectory and potential profitability of the U.S.…
Earnings – S&P 500 NTM EPS The projected earnings per share for the S&P 500 in the next 12 months, as estimated by analysts, continues to rise. This is generally seen as positive news for…
Small-Caps – Trailing 12-Month Russell 2000 Return Goldman Sachs expects the Russell 2000 small-cap index to return 15% in the next 12 months, which suggests a positive outlook for small-cap stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Valuation – Real S&P 500 Index with Recessions and S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio While valuations alone do not guarantee market movements, the S&P 500 is still trading at relatively elevated valuations, which will eventually…
Oil Prices and U.S. Recessions The elections in 2024 across highly populated countries could have significant implications for geopolitics and the global economy. Political leaders should work towards calming geopolitics to prevent a surge in…