Average S&P 500 Returns by Election Cycle Year The dynamics and uncertainties of the electoral process often impact market performance in presidential election years, leading to a historical trend of weaker S&P 500 returns. Image:…
FMS Investors – What Is the Most Likely Source for a Systemic Credit Event? FMS investors view the China real estate as the biggest source of a systematic credit event due to excessive borrowing, with…
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Since 2007, U.S. stock prices rose 6 times more than U.S. real GDP. Is the disconnect between the stock…
Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted Historically, inverted yield curves have often signaled upcoming U.S. recessions, making them an important indicator that economists and analysts closely monitor to assess the condition of the economy. Image:…
Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield below the fed funds rate indicates that the Fed’s monetary policy is currently restrictive, which could potentially lead to a slowdown…
Total Return Performance Since First Fed Hike in March 2022 There has been a significant concentration of equity market returns following the first Fed hike in March 2022. This concentration should be considered by investors…
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High, S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Will market breadth improve in 2024? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Components of S&P 500 Total Return Given that S&P 500 returns in 2023 were driven more by valuations than earnings, should investors anticipate a reversal of this trend in 2024, where earnings become a more…
FMS Investors – Net % Say Global Profits Will Improve vs. ISM Manufacturing New Orders/Inventories There is a growing belief among FMS investors that global profits will improve in the future, which is encouraging. Image:…
What Is the Most Likely Outcome for the Global Economy in the Next 12 Months? FMS investors continue to anticipate a “soft landing” as the most likely global outcome, indicating a gradual and controlled slowdown…