Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? Historically, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1. Today, it stands at 1.37. “The leading index for each state predicts…

DM Real GDP and WTI Crude Oil (Leading Indicator) Chart suggesting that the 18-month rate of change of WTI crude oil (inverted) tends to lead DM real GDP by 18 months. Image: Topdown Charts

Coronavirus, SARS and Swine Flu – Number of Cases and Deaths The chart suggests that the growth rate of cases of coronavirus is slowing. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Trade Balance with China by Month U.S. deficit with China narrowed slightly in a year of trade tensions. Image: Oxford Economics

Bottom-Up Consensus Forecast of S&P 500 YoY Sales Growth Chart showing the bottom-up consensus forecast of S&P 500 year-over-year sales growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Inflows into Tech Funds This chart puts into perspective the annualized inflows into Tech funds. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Valuation – Info Tech vs. S&P 500 The valuation of tech stocks relative to the S&P 500 seems relatively high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Daily Change in Confirmed and Suspected Cases for the Coronavirus The chart suggests that the number of suspected cases of coronavirus appears to be stabilizing. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Economy vs. Asset Prices Persistent low interest rates could explain the wide divergence between real economy prices and asset prices, over the past decade. Image: Charles Schwab

Dow Jones Return Based on Fed Chair Fed Chairman Jerome Powell took over the Fed two years ago. Since then, the Dow Jones has gained 15%. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is higher than expected and continues to rebound. Image: Macrobond Financial