Valuation – S&P 500 Real Value Index Since 1871, the S&P 500 real total returns, dividends reinvested, have averaged 6.9% a year. The U.S. Real Value Index has always mean-reverted — and right now, it…

U.S. Labor Productivity A pandemic-driven productivity surge has put U.S. real output per hour 1.7% above its previous trajectory, providing tailwinds to economic performance and keeping the American growth story alive and well. Image: Deutsche…

Bitcoin Price and 365-Day Moving Average A break below the 365-day moving average puts Bitcoin on the defensive. Add in thin dip demand, margin pressure, and souring sentiment, and the setup looks ripe for institutional…

S&P 500 Valuations Based On Forward Operating EPS Easy money and low rates could keep pushing S&P 500 multiples higher, but the risk is that earnings won’t rise fast enough to support them. For the…

U.S. Broad Nominal Trade-Weighted Dollar and 200-Day Moving Average After weeks of drift, the U.S. dollar’s rebound looks more than just noise, with key gauges—like the 200-day moving average—suggesting the move has technical legs, at…

U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Equal Weight Index / S&P 500 Index The ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 to its cap-weighted version has dropped to its weakest level since May 2003—a stark reminder of…

Equity Market and Share of the Biggest Sector in the U.S. History keeps repeating on Wall Street — when diversification fades, sector dominance rises. But it never lasts. Sooner or later, shifts in the economy,…

AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The AAII bulls minus bears sentiment spread in 2025 has mirrored bear market extremes from history, reflecting deep pessimism over near‑term stock performance — but to contrarians,…

Valuation – S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio The market is no bargain: the S&P 500 sits at 23 times forward earnings, versus 16 on average over two decades, while the Magnificent Seven stretch valuations…

Equity Performance – MSCI China vs. MSCI U.S. Beijing’s early-2024 intervention lit a rocket under Chinese equities, leaving Wall Street in the dust. Fueled by stimulus and growing investor conviction, the rally could stretch further…

Global Median 10-Year Yield Across All Sample Economies The median 10-year government bond yield has risen from the rock-bottom levels of the pre-Covid years and early pandemic, returning to its long-term historical average — a…