S&P 500 Price Returns Relative to Onset of Next U.S. Recession The performance of the S&P 500 has generally been positive until six months prior to a recession. Image: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg
Wicksell Spread and S&P 500 12-Month EPS Growth (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the Wicksell spread tends to lead the S&P 500 12-Month EPS growth by 3 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. and Europe: Value vs. Growth Price to Book Ratio Valuations for growth vs. value are back near the levels that preceded 2000-01, but the trend is still intact for the time being. Image: Morgan…
Share of Household Equities and Mutual Funds Owned by the Bottom 90% Chart showing that share of household equities and mutual funds owned by the bottom 90% has been counter-cyclical. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns Over the past 20 years, March and April have been the two strongest months. Image: LPL Research
Global Investment Research Financial Excess Monitor and Recessions The heat map suggests below-average imbalances in the U.S. economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Fund Flows Bond funds hit inflow record, reflecting investor fears about the coronavirus’s spread. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Dollar and President Trump This chart shows the correlation between the U.S. dollar and President Trump’s approval ratings Image: TD securities
Odds of Various S&P 500 One-Year Total Returns During U.S. Economic Expansions This chart suggests the probability of positive one-year market returns when the U.S. economy is expanding. Image: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg
S&P 500 Next Twelve Months P/E vs. Dollar Index This chart suggests that the strength of the U.S. dollar supports higher P/E multiples for the S&P 500. Image: Strategas
S&P 500 – Secular Bull Market Analogs The bull market that began in 2009 could have similarities with the secular bull markets of 1982-2000 and 1949-1968. Since the Great Recession, US stocks have behaved like…