U.S. Unemployment Rate Minus U.S. Natural Rate of Unemployment and Recessions The unemployment rate minus the natural rate of unemployment has been negative for 34 months, and tends to bottom before a recession.
U.S. Consumer Credit The current downtrend in US consumer credit impulse could suggest a scenario of slowing growth this year. Image: Macrobond Financial
Info Tech Sector NTM P/E Premium to S&P 500 Is the tech sector expensive relative to the S&P 500? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Trailing 12 Month EPS Growth: S&P 500 vs. MSCI AC World ex U.S. Chart suggesting that the “fundamental” advantage of U.S. stocks is diminishing. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Equity Valuation and Real Rates This chart highlights the various regimes for rates and equities over time. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Survey Data and EPS Growth BofA’s model suggests 11.4% U.S. EPS growth by the end of Q2 2020. Image: BofA Global Research
Info Tech Stocks and Sales Exposure to Greater China Stocks in the information technology sector have the most sales exposure to Greater China. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Long-Term Annual Real GDP Growth in the U.S. Most forecasters projects long-term real GDP growth of about 2% in the United States, except for the White House (Office of Management and Budget). Image: Committee for a…
China’s Importance to the World Economy China plays a key role in the world economy, as China share of global GDP is much bigger today than it was in 2003. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Zombie Companies and Wilshire 5000 Since the Fed ended QE in 2014, U.S. zombie companies have underperformed the stock market. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Probability of U.S. Recession vs. Initial Jobless Claims The probability of U.S. recession beginning within 12 months decreases. Image: J.P. Morgan