OECD LEI Tends to Lead Global Manufacturing PMI by 6 Months Chart suggesting a pick-up in the global manufacturing PMI. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Gold ETF Cumulative Change and Trade Implied Vaulted Gold Build High-net-worth individuals around the world are trying to minimize economic and political risks by buying physical gold. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of U.S. Recession – Real Economic Variables vs. Financial Variables Real economic variables do not suggest that a recession is imminent, while financial variables point to a higher risk of recession. Image: Nordea and…

MSCI ACWI Total Return Index vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator Chart suggesting that usually, when the OECD composite leading indicator is up (slightly), it is positive for equity markets. Image: Tomasz Hońdo

U.S. Dollar and Euro (EUR/USD) Deutsche Bank expects the dollar to weaken into 2020. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

U.S. Corporate Profits vs. S&P 500 EPS The current divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record. It is possible to close the gap “down” (recession) or “up”…

Cumulative Market Cap Growth vs. Cumulative Executed U.S. Buybacks Through the current cycle, U.S. buybacks have returned about $5.5 trillion to shareholders. Image: J.P. Morgan US Equity Strategy & Global Quantitative Research

Global GDP and the Three Soft Patches Since 2008 The strength of American consumers still remains the key drivers of global economic growth. Image: Richardson Wealth

U.S. Equity Bear Markets and Recessions In recent history, equity bear markets tend to occur six months before a recession, and when no one is looking for them. Image: BCA Research

Total Negative Yielding Bonds Outstanding Global negative-yielding debt has now fallen below the 2016 peak. Image: Bianco Research

Net Global Central Bank Hikes/Cuts Global central banks haven’t cut this much since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy