Global GDP Growth Outlook vs. Consensus SocGen remains below the consensus forecasts and expects a mild recession around mid-2020 in the U.S. and a projected U.S. GDP of 0.7%. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Range of Returns Two Years After Fed Rate Cut Historically, equities rally significally, when the Fed eases during soft patches. Image: Barclays Research
Median S&P 500 12-Month Returns Based on Control of U.S. Government A unified government under the Democrats could represent a major risk for the S&P 500 in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Russell 2000 Returns After New 52-Week Highs After more than a year without a new 52-week high, the Russell 2000 has been higher 12 months later 10 of 11 times and up 17% on average.…
Total U.S. Equity Fund Flows and Market Capitalization Currently, equity fund outflows over 12m (rolling) are at 1% of market capitalization, as in March 2003, March 2009 and June 2012. Image: UBS
Effect of Fiscal Policy on U.S. Real GDP Growth This chart suggests a negative effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
FTSE Renaissance Global IPO Index and MSCI ACWI Index This chart shows that global IPOs overall have performed similarly with the overall global equity market. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
Valuation – Relative P/E High vs. Low Dividend Yield Stocks This chart suggests that stocks that pay large dividends haven’t been so cheap since around 1980, relative to low dividend yield stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs…
House Prices Around Europe Chart showing house prices around Europe since the Great Financial Crisis. House prices in Norway and Sweden have been on a high rising trend. Image: Jeroen Blokland
World Equities and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Chart suggesting that the round trip in U.S. Treasury yields explains the round trip in stock market valuation. Image: Financial Times
Long-Term U.S. Dollar Cycles This chart shows bear and bull cycles in the U.S. dollar. Will the U.S. dollar enter a bear market? Image: Alpine Macro