Risky Assets Performance and Global Manufacturing PMI Interesting chart suggesting that risky assets are currently following the typical path when global growth is bottoming. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Distribution of U.S. Market Returns Since 1926, annual returns between 20% and 30% are the most common. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index has gained 23%. Image: Center of Research in Security Prices
China Real M1 Leads World Industrial Production Chart suggesting that China’s real M1 leads world industrial production by 6 months. Image: Nordea, Sebastian Dypbukt Källman
Survey – U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession fears are fading and U.S. credit investors now see a 21% chance of recession over the next 12 months. It was 25% in September. Image: BofA Credit Investor…
S&P 500 First Week of November to Year-End Return Interesting chart suggesting that the return from 11/5 to the end of this year could be around 4%, and the S&P 500 Index above 3,200. Image:…
Gold Funds Weekly Flows Chart showing that gold funds have not yet seen any meaningful outflows. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
S&P 500 Industrials Index and U.S. Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs When U.S. labor costs rise, industrial profit margins are under pressure. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Secular Bull Market: S&P 500 and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Chart suggesting that the current secular bull trend best fits the 1950-1966 secular bull market. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Survey: US-China Trade Agreements About the “phase one deal”, the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey shows that 65% of fund managers see a skinny agreement, delaying some tariff…
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Consumption Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs economists’ model forecasts solid consumption growth above trend in 2020, despite policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China Offshore Stock Index (Hong Kong) and China Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that the Chinese stock market has more upside. Image: Danske Bank