U.S. Business Cycle: Private Non-farm Employment, Corporate Profits and Employee Compensation This chart highlights the decline in corporate profits and rising wages, one characteristic of the late stage of the business cycle. Image: Fidelity Investments

Break-Even Inflation Rate On 10-Year TIPS and Fed Rate Cut (Hike) If inflation expectations continue to fall or remain low, the Fed could probably cut rates further. Image: Gavekal

MSCI U.S. EPS vs. Trend History shows that earnings well above the trend in the U.S. precede earning plunges. Image: Barclays Research

Export Destination: China vs. USA China is the largest export market of most Asian countries. Image: Danske Bank

NFIB Job Openings and Recessions This chart shows that NFIB job openings, while high, could suggest a looming recession. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

U.S. Equity Leads U.S. Dollar History suggests that U.S. equity underperformance leads U.S. dollar weakness. Image: Gavekal

Emerging Markets Earnings Estimates Emerging markets earnings estimates are falling from $105 to $77 in 2019. Image: Fidelity Investments

Semiconductor Prices and ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that the surge in semiconductor prices implies ISM Manufacturing Index above 55 in the next 3-months. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

S&P 500 Performance During Past Recessions In recent history, the median S&P 500 performance during past recessions (peak to trough) is -24% Image: Barclays Research

S&P 500 Index: Recession Rate Cuts vs. Precautionary Rate Cuts This chart shows what the U.S. market has done after first Fed cut in a business cycle. The current path follows precautionary rate cuts and…

MSCI Europe P/E and U.S. Nominal 10-Year Yield Chart showing how nominal yields usually affect stock market valuation. Image: Barclays Research