Probability of U.S. Recession in 12 Months Based on the Slope of the Yield Curve The yield curve slope suggests odds of a recession in the next 12 months at less than 30% in the…

Correlation Between Value and Momentum The correlation between value and momentum is near record lows. Below this level, value outperformed momentum over the next 250 days (77% of the time) since 1986. Image: BofA Merrill…

Profit Margins of S&P Large Caps and Small Caps Profit margins between small and large caps are widening. Industries with highest concentrations are getting all of the profit margin improvement. Image: Arbor Research & Trading…

S&P 500 Earnings So far, S&P500 earnings are not down dramaticaly as in previous bear markets. Image: Quercus TFI S.A.

U.S. Surplus/Deficit As A Percentage of GDP The US federal government’s budget deficit jumps above $1 trillion for the first time over the past 12 months. Image: Bianco Research

U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 24 months ago. The mature phase lasted 72 months in the late 1960s and 57 months in…

U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 2 years ago. If inflation remains stable and the Fed avoids restrictive monetary policy, then the risk…

U.S. Active Fund Managers vs. Benchmarks It is hard for active fund managers to beat their benchmarks over the long term. Image: Financial Times

U.S. Recession Chances The recession probability model developed by Bloomberg economists now shows 26% chance of recession within 12 months. Image: Bloomberg

Value Stocks vs. Low Volatility Stocks Chart showing the large divergence between value stocks and low volatility stocks, like never before. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit by Month U.S. federal budget deficit surges to $134.5 billion in October. Image: Oxford Economics