U.S. NonFarm Employment Annual Growth The YOY job growth rate of 1.1% is a warning sign, as similar levels have coincided with periods just before or during recessions since 1950, supporting the case for the…

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the U.S. equity risk premium at historically low levels, equity investors face a more challenging environment, as the risk-reward trade-off is less attractive than before. Image: The Daily Shot

U.S. Debt Held by Public as Share of GDP Rising U.S. federal debt could lead to higher interest payments, reduced investment and growth, fewer jobs, lower wages, and less flexibility for the government to respond…

MSCI All-Country World Index and RSI (14) Signs of overheating are emerging in global stocks, with technical and flow indicators nearing thresholds that have previously triggered sell signals. Image: Bloomberg

Length of Bull Markets and When They Started The current bull market, which began in October 2022, remains relatively young by historical standards and could persist much longer than bearish observers expect. Image: Carson Investment…

Cumulative Flows in All Bitcoin Funds and Gold ETF Holdings The past month has seen a clear preference for Bitcoin over gold among investors, driven by a shift toward riskier assets, robust technical performance, and…

Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index The recent decline in the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that the economy is currently underperforming analysts’ expectations. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Small-Cap Stocks – Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 While U.S. small-cap stocks have notably underperformed large caps for an extended period, history suggests that such cycles are not unusual and are often followed by…

Gold Speculative Positions Speculative positioning in gold has declined sharply in recent weeks, driven by profit-taking, risk repricing, and rotation into other asset classes. Image: J.P. Morgan

Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives Higher growth expectations raise bond yields because investors demand greater compensation for potential inflation and uncertainty about future interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs…

S&P 500 Price Target for 2025 Citing diminished tariff effects and a resilient U.S. economy, Deutsche Bank has increased its year-end S&P 500 forecast to 6,550, up from 6,150. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation