Cumulative Fund Flows: Global Equities and Global Government & Corporate Bonds $339 billion in inflows to bond funds globally, and $208 billion in outflows from global equity funds in 2019, as investors fear a global recession…
Proportion of Unprofitable IPOs The proportion of unprofitable IPOs has reached 70%, the highest level since the tech bubble 20 years ago. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. Dollar and Growth in the Rest of the World vs. U.S. GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the U.S. dollar could weaken in a scenario of a global economy recovery. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
New Home Sales vs. Recessions Typically, a recession occurs when the annual change in New Home Sales declines by about 20%. This chart suggests that a recession from these levels would be surprising. Image: Calculated…
Cass Freight Shipments Index (6ma) vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the Cass Freight Shipments Index (6-month average). It suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP in 3Q19. The Cass Freight Shipments Index is a relative…
The Highest-Paying U.S. Companies by Median Salary Most highest-paying American companies are in the tech sector. Image: howmuch.net
Federal Reserve Money Supply M2 Leads Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that the Federal Reserve money supply M2 leads global manufacturing PMI by 18 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Blue Chip Economic Indicators Surveys and Average Probability of U.S. Recession The probability of U.S. recession increases to 39% for 2020, based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys. Image: J.P. Morgan
MSCI World Index Valuation at Cycle Peaks and Troughs On average, the MSCI World Index currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio that has marked cyclical peaks in the stock market over the past 50 years.…
Demographics – U.S. 10-Year Rate, Labor Force Growth and Nominal GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the current trend in labor force growth and nominal GDP growth points to higher rates. Image: Swedbank Research
Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession Investors move to safe assets by raising their cash holdings, like 2007/2008. This chart suggests that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is…