Chinese Credit Growth and OECD Leading Indicator for China Chinese Credit growth rebounded in September and suggests stronger activity on the horizon. The OECD leading indicator for China picked up further at the highest level…
U.S. Dollar and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that sharp falls in the ISM Manufacturing Index are associated with U.S. dollar strength, not weakness. Image: HSBC
S&P 500 Cash Spending According to Goldman Sachs, cash spending by S&P 500 companies is likely to fall by 6% in 2019, the largest year-over-year decline since 2009. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fears of Global Recession The latest BofAML’s European credit investor survey shows that fears of global recession have risen to 42%. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
S&P 500 Performance When Market Is Up 17% Through Oct. 15 When the S&P 500 is up 17% through October 15, the average gain through year-end is 3.1%, 82% of time since 1930. Image: Fundstrat…
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve A support for U.S. dollar bears could be a significant Fed easing, resulting in a steeper yield curve. Image: Saxo Bank
Shareholder Return vs. Free Cash Flow Thanks to low interest rates, shareholder return has exceeded free cash flow levels again. U.S. companies cannot spend more than they earn indefinitely. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility – Bond Proxies and Long-End Treasuries Bond proxies are less attached to Fed policy. This chart shows that the implied volatility of bond proxies is disconnected from long-end Treasuries. Image: Arbor Research & Trading…
Distribution of VIX Interesting chart showing that VIX has avoided both extremes (<12 and >25) this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Who Owns the U.S. Treasury Market? American institutions and individual investors are big holders. A large part of the treasury market is also owned by foreigners. Image: Bianco Research