“Real Fed Rates Are the Most Accurate Predictor of Future S&P 500 Volatility,” Says SocGen SocGen says it is the most accurate predictor of S&P 500’s volatility over the last 50 years. Should investors be…
“U.S. Stock Market, No Froth In Sight” Says Stock Market Sentiment Index Keep in mind that it is just another investor sentiment tool. But it does not show at all if the US stock market…
Worst Start to Year for Equity Flows since 2008 Even if the S&P 500 is up 18% to date (best start to a year since 1987), it is the worst start to year for equity…
U.S. Unemployment Rate at 3.6% in April 2019 This is the lowest level since 1969! Is this a sign of a booming economy? In any case, the U.S. economy does appear to be gaining momentum…
U.S. Corporate Stock Buybacks Are Booming Since 2010! Thanks to tax cuts and low interest rates. What would happen if companies reinvested instead of buying their own shares? Unfortunately, artificially low interest rates are associated with unnecessary…
Has the United States Ever Imported a Recession from a Single Foreign Country? The biggest U.S. trade partners are: China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Germany, South Korea, United Kingdom and France. So far, the US has…
Why We Should Not Be Afraid By China’s Debt? In China, there is a high level of savings and controls on capital outflows. Currently, most of the Chinese savings are lent or invested in China. So,…
In Recent Years The Number of Unicorns Has Simply Exploded Artificially low interest rates have caused a bubble in the sector. But how sustainable it is? Only time will tell.
Are We Near a Recession? “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the…
When Is the Next Recession Coming? If history helps us to predict the future, a recession can occur when: Wage Growth minus Fed Funds Rate is below -1%. Why? Because the Fed is too tight…
Why Are Dividends and Buybacks Hitting Record Highs? Corporate stock buybacks and dividends are booming, thanks to the tax cuts and low interest rates.Unfortunately, artificially low interest rates are associated with unnecessary debt and a…