Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves…

Equities as a Share of Household Assets U.S. households now allocate about 49% of their assets to equities, a level that reflects strong market optimism and a significant appetite for risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

U.S. Stocks Relative to Bonds U.S. stocks are at their strongest relative to bonds since Trump’s inauguration, supported by persistent risk appetite and the perception of U.S. market resilience amid global uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg

WTI Oil Prices While oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, particularly in regions like the Middle East, the market has so far avoided the kind of sustained shock that would trigger broader inflation.…

YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities Despite some volatility and brief periods of outflows, flows into U.S. equities in 2025 have been running above the 24-year average, with projections pointing to a record…

Brent Crude Oil Prices – Biggest Weekly Jumps Fueled by a sudden escalation in Middle East conflict and concerns over major supply disruptions, Brent crude oil prices experienced one of their biggest weekly gains since…

AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings While AAII U.S. investor pessimism has eased to a 20-week low, bearish sentiment remains modestly elevated relative to historical averages, indicating that caution lingers even as market conditions improve.…

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Term Premium The increasing term premium signals that investors require greater compensation for the risks inherent in holding longer-term bonds, reflecting increased concerns about interest rate and inflation over longer durations. Image:…

U.S. Dollar vs. Gold – Share in Global Reserves As countries and central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves and international trade, gold has emerged as the preferred alternative…

Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns…

S&P 500 Recovery In just over two months, the post-“Liberation Day” recovery in the S&P 500 is the strongest and fastest on record, surpassing any rebound seen in the last 75 years. Image: Deutsche Bank…