S&P 500 Bear Markets S&P 500 bear markets tied to recessions don’t end before the recession starts. Those without a recession are rare and usually short. Image: TS Lombard

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bull market secured… until it isn’t. In finance, the wise investor always expects the unexpected! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

Average Forward S&P 500 Returns Following Large Declines in U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator When the GS sentiment indicator reaches such a low level, the S&P 500 typically delivers an average forward two-week return of approximately…

Two-day Performance for the S&P 500 The two-day decline of 10.5% in the S&P 500 last Thursday and Friday marked its fifth-worst drop since World War II. The turmoil is likely to persist as long…

S&P 500 10% Drop in Two Days A 10% drop in the S&P 500 over two days is unusual, but history shows that sharp declines are often followed by strong recoveries, giving investors reason for…

Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions Historically, recessions since World War II have caused a median 13% decline in S&P 500 EPS, often leading to substantial index losses.…

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The “Liberation Day” effect has set equity markets free—free to plummet, that is! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎

Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer…

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX High-yield credit spreads have widened by over 150bps from their 17-year lows, signaling growing financial stress. While rising credit spreads have often been a precursor to recessions, they…

Large U.S. Tax Hikes Trump’s tariffs represent the most significant U.S. tax increase since 1968, raising widespread concerns about their long-term effects on the economy. Image: J.P. Morgan

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day As the S&P 500 tumbles 9.08% this week, bears are popping champagne, and bulls are asking, “Is there even a floor anymore?” Have a Great Weekend, Everyone! 😎